Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[Ali1977]

06z make much less of the PV, which may support more chance of a temporary Nottherly later in FI. 

[Scandinavian High.]

I think we are starting to see now models latching on to colder end to November can we get that high north west ..

[Ali1977]

10 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

I think we are starting to see now models latching on to colder end to November can we get that high north west ..

Not on this run, it’s a shame after the GEM showed some promise (not support by its ensembles however) . Over to the GFS ENS. 

Edited November 16, 2019 by Ali1977

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z operational doesn't look quite as mild and it does become more settled for a time late november but it's a predominantly unsettled run and there's no sign of anything wintry.

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

The Gfs 6z operational doesn't look quite as mild and it does become more settled for a time late november but it's a predominantly unsettled run and there's no sign of anything wintry.

Never give up hope, Jon...Day 18 is nigh!

   

On a more serious note, the synoptic pattern that's been wafting warm air all the way into Europe looks about to expire, at last...?

[Snowyowl9]

Pointless looking too far out as we`re in strange territory at the moment that pocket of,cold air in over us tuesday seems like midweek could be interesting.

[Ali1977]

Well well well, Greeny block is back at 192 on many ENS, mean shows this 

day 10 ens

Edited November 16, 2019 by Ali1977

[Mike Poole]

25 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Well well well, Greeny block is back at 192 on many ENS, mean shows this 

day 10 ens

Yes, quite a promising GEFS 6z set, here's the whole lot at T240:

Still no sign of any significant organisation of the trop vortex in those, even in the ones that don't show favourable blocking for the UK cold perspective.  Such an interesting winter this, and still 15 days until it starts - ? well, you know what I mean!

It should make the 12z runs an interesting watch this afternoon.  

[Frosty.]

I tend to agree that although the 6z operational sucked (for coldies) there is some interest for coldies within the GEFS 6z, however, there are some milder options too which can't be glossed over.

[johnholmes]

My notes for today and relevant charts are below. Dealing with the 6-10 day period as usual.

Saturday 16 november

I wonder if the ec-gfs this morning is a ‘real’ signal for something of a change in pattern? Gfs is really the only one yet to show +ve heights and ridging rather than marked/deep troughing affecting the uk, ec, so far, has just changed to troughing to a much weaker looking flow with the +ve heights and ridging much as before. No sign of last evening noaa changing to this though, but it has very little sign of the contour ridging sw of the uk it had a week ago, so watch and wait for a couple of days!

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

At the risk of upsetting a few of the cold seekers I do feel the need to repeat my oft posted comment in the winter period.

Looking beyond 144-168 h on a run to run basis is about a 75% waste of time IF you are wanting to get some idea of any 'real' signal. Compare like with like and then compare to the ensembles for the first signs of a possible change in what is showing in the nearer time scale. Honest it does work reasonably well.

Edited November 16, 2019 by johnholmes

[bluearmy]

The gefs mean is pretty clear on a transfer of a sig vortex portion from Asia back to Canada (a few runs now) 

if this occurs, then an invigorated n arm at a higher latitude than seen generally thus far is likely - that will bring the Azores ridge further east aswell 

we could avoid this if we see either a n Pacific ridge into the pole as per some of yesterday’s fi offers or a v amplified Atlantic ridge - both remain feasible ...... the saturated parts of the country will be quite happy to see the jet headed further north for a while 

im not calling flatter/amplified just yet ...... no strong or compelling evidence on offer 

[E17boy]

Good afternoon all

Hope everyone is well. We have finally got a brief rest bite from the rain today, it's a much better day here in Walthamstow East London and it does not feel as cold as it has done on previous days.

So what is our weather pattern doing? Seems to me that the models have been all over the place,a week and a half ago us coldies had our heads up at a possible cold snap being played by blocking to our north.  However it all seems to have change now as the picture looks to be pointing to a milder outlook with not much excitement (although some sort of blocking is still evident up to our north) it's not quite the setup that is about to drag bitterly cold air towards us and that is what we are anxiously waiting to happen. High pressure present to our east has really been a spoiler over these past weeks it has blocked any. Cold from Siberia to head west  and it has driven our Atlantic systems to sometimes become stuck right over us till they fizzle out. To be honest I was not personally convinced of a November extreme cold snap, even a good part of Europe has been mild so it would have needed something more potent for us to go into the freezer.  The models did with some of The outcomes point  out to a possibly colder solution but again for me to get interested it must fall in the reliable ( for me that is 5 days the most).

The trend going forward seems to indicate that we will now encounter a milder period for how long who knows What I really want to see now is for this current pattern to shift and the high in the east to move on. I only think it will be then that Europe will have a chance to cool down, and I do want this to happen because if the jigsaw is going to fall in place and cold air does head west we don't want it to warm up before it gets to us. When will this happen and how it's hard to say as this setup is so complicated at the moment and I would not put too much faith in what Iis being modelled as it is changing a lot from day to day. It's a game of patience now, and to ne if we are going to get a milder period let it be anything to shift this pattern is number one on my list. I would be concerned if only 2 weeks of winter were left, but that is not the case.

Some people have commented on the long range predictions. I just need to add if we can't predict what's going to happen in a few days time but only can take a rough assumption. Then what is so different in these longer range models that will higher our confidence for such a outcome to happen, What the models are predicting may tie in with How this winter pans out but this is against the probability of how it may go the opposite way too. 

lastly we have only gone past mid November and is it not good just to think we have not had the headline of it being very mild for the time of year etc. The general layout looks good with a lot of HLB to out north, Exciting model watching and pattern setup I am sure is still to come.

wishing you all a great saturday

THE SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND CONTINUES

kind regards

[Don]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The gefs mean is pretty clear on a transfer of a sig vortex portion from Asia back to Canada (a few runs now) 

if this occurs, then an invigorated n arm at a higher latitude than seen generally thus far is likely - that will bring the Azores ridge further east aswell 

Tho is a concern for coldies as winter arrives.

[Man With Beard]

Well the EC clusters are not giving up on ridging to the north as December approaches - quite the opposite - clusters 1 and 3 seeing further ridging either to the NW or NE. Could be another opportunity to get things lined up favorably for cold by the end of the month? 

 

‎

[phil nw.]

Changes to this current 500 hPa  pattern look like being slow at the moment with the Atlantic weather coming up against the Sceuro block and disrupting over the UK causing all the rain and unsettled conditions.It seems never ending!

Just looking further ahead and the gfs ens model(taken from the 00z run) shows no real change expected up to day 10 but beyond that signs of things evolving to the east as the ens mean anomalies are starting to show the eastern block fading from days 11-15.

For comparison

days 6-10                                                   days 11-15 

Probably little difference for us at the surface with still broadly a westerly setup on a weakish jet flow and temperatures around or just below normal. We could see lows heading further east if this pattern change comes about and this would open the opportunity for some colder air from the north or north west if low pressure or troughing develops further east over Scandinavia later on.Just something to look out for if cold is your thing.

Certainly for the time being the Atlantic jet continues to remain underpar and split so no sign yet of roaring south westerlies heading this way.

Edited November 16, 2019 by phil nw.

[damianslaw]

5 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Changes to this 500 hPa look like being slow at the moment with the Atlantic weather coming up against the Sceuro block and disrupting over the UK causing all the rain and unsettled conditions.It seems never ending!

Just looking further ahead and the gfs ens model(taken from the 00z run) shows no real change expected up to day 10 but beyond that signs of things evolving to the east as the ens mean anomalies are starting to show the eastern block fading from days 11-15.

For comparison

days 6-10                                                   days 11-15 

Probably little difference for us at the surface with still broadly a westerly setup on a weakish jet flow and temperatures around or just below normal. We could see lows heading further east if this pattern change comes about and this would open the opportunity for some colder air from the north or north west if low pressure or troughing develops further east over Scandinavia later on.Just something to look out for if cold is your thing.

Certainly for the time being the Atlantic jet continues to remain underpar and split so no sign yet of roaring south westerlies heading this way.

Lots of uncertainty how things may pan out as we end November.. pehaps signs of a bit more mobility longer term as heights to the NE ebb a little further to the east allowing the trough to anchor a bit further east than has been the case recently, this would as you say allow possibly for some colder polar air to feed down from the N or NW as being hinted at by some of the models longer term - only hints. There are also signs the azores high might ridge further NW which would also help to steer frontal features more towards S Scandi - the other option might be for heights to build more strongly to our south, sending the jet further to the north.

I agree though the most notable feature is no sign the jet is going to stir into high speed anytime soon, and it looks very sluggish, and prime territory for trough disruption and splitting, with every chance heights will have an easy time to develop and become strong blocking features for the foreseeable - where these heights decide to move to is the hard question to answer.

[Ali1977]

Early days , and at T84 it’s looking more blocky around Labrador - not sure it’ll change day 7 onwards though 

Edited November 16, 2019 by Ali1977

[swfc]

Pretty lame 12z outputs so far.lets hope the EC pulls a rabbit out of the bag

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, swfc said:

Pretty lame 12z outputs so far.lets hope the EC pulls a rabbit out of the bag

It’s chasing deep FI charts now I think, can’t imagine any swing cold before T240.  

[carinthian]

9 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all , looks like main models all in agreement at 144t. A tremendous battle going on as the NW European trough battles against the monster block to the East. A slow rose in temps to near normal by mid- weeks looks on the card but forecasting rain amounts and exact location difficult to forecast. Beyond that period out to 240t very uncertain how things will resolve but some thought from our experts heading for a Arctic incursion to break the impass. We will see. 

C

 

Following on from the above post, you can see from the latest runs below that the models continue to struggle to find a unified outcome at 144T to dislodge that monster block. I must say , looking at the first  model shown below from UKMO, the pressure pattern looks rather odd around the British Isles. Thats , also to say , they may not be wrong. Lets see how ECM looks at 144t. Meanwhile, that frontal boundary producing some tremendous snowfall in our village and more to come. Pictures in All things Austria thread,

Edited November 16, 2019 by carinthian

[johnholmes]

7 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Following on from the above post, you can see from the latest runs below that the models continue to struggle to find a unified outcome at 144T to dislodge that monster block. I must say , looking at the first  model shown below from UKMO, the pressure pattern looks rather odd around the British Isles. Thats , also to say , they may not be wrong. Lets see how ECM looks at 144t. Meanwhile, that frontal boundary producing some tremendous snowfall in our village and more to come. Pictures in All things Austria thread,

 

 

C, is it necessary to repeat your previous post each time?

[Rayth]

3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

C, is it necessary to repeat your previous post each time?

Please do C , sometimes I miss morning posts 

[carinthian]

6 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

C, is it necessary to repeat your previous post each time?

The correct response to reply to you Mr H is via PM , which I will of course address. Cheers, P

[knocker]

Interesting ext GEFS this evening as upstream we have an amplified Aleutian low/west American ridge with a split vortex over northern Russia with an extension to northern Canada. South of the latter still a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard which is benefiting from two feeds which then track across the Atlantic but diverges halfway courtesy of the European ridge which is extending into east Greenland before hitting the block in the east. Ergo, how many times have I said this of late, a tricky surface analysis with temps around average, Be interesting to see the EPS later as there appears to be quite a lot going on

 

 

Edited November 16, 2019 by knocker

[feb1991blizzard]

When i looked at the 10mb charts it looked to me like the SSW chances had receded on the last few runs with the ensemble mean stalling right at the end and not getting any warmer or further into the pole but then looked at the 1mb chart and found that the 384 chart has actually strengthened the warming, the first time the purples are showing, you usually need the lighter shade of purples nearer to white to start showing at that range as the GFS bias usually over estimates the temperatures but still a very decent chart.

 

Edited November 16, 2019 by feb1991blizzard