Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[Kentspur]

0z UKMO looks better to me than last nights Outputs though obviously doesnt go out that far. The Low looks angled a little better to our South West compared to likes of yesterdays ECM 12z run for the same timeframe 

[shaky]

7 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

0z UKMO looks better to me than last nights Outputs though obviously doesnt go out that far. The Low looks angled a little better to our South West compared to likes of yesterdays ECM 12z run for the same timeframe 

Also the changes ate just 48 to 72 on this mornings runs are notable compared to the 96 and 72 hour charts from yesterday!!low sliding and disrupting more to the west of the uk and a stronger icelandic wedge!!keep an eye out me thinks

[Ali1977]

Not sure what I make of this run - can we really go from this to this in 2 day??

Huge change over France and North East USA , doesn’t seem right.

Hoping the ENS show some better options and 192

Edited November 16, 2019 by Ali1977

[Kentspur]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Not sure what I make of this run - can we really go from this to this in 2 day??

Huge change over France and North East USA , doesn’t seem right.

Hoping the ENS show some better options and 192

Those Scottish ski resorts will be happy with the GFS 0z run another polar maritime flow showing in FI. Lately I've found the more positive coldie outlooks have been 12z runs rather than 0z and I've noticed this in previous years also.

[knocker]

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

The decaying occlusion will continue to move north west through today so Wales and broad area of central and northern England will be cloudy with patchy rain with some more persistent rain along the north east coast in the inshore wind. And still showers running down extreme western coastal regions/ Over N. Ireland and Scotland and the south of England more in the way of sunshine but the occlusion strugling slowly in from the west will bring rain to western Ireland by 1500.

Not a lot of change overnight with much of Scotland southern England being relatively clear with fog patches forming by morning whilst the weakening front continues to bring cloud and patchy rain to NW  regions with showers also continuing along the west coast of Wales and Cornwall

 By Sunday another quite intense extra tropical cyclone has developed south of Greenland which enhances downstream ridging with little change of the overall position in the UK with the broad band of cloud and patchy rain across central areas whilst quite sunny elsewhere

The Greenland low tracks slowly east and starts to fill as the downstream ridge moves over the UK resulting a relatively sunny and dry day once any residual rain has cleared and with little wind it will feel a tad warmer

The low continues to struggle east against the block in the east on Tuesday but the associated occlusion will bring rain into western regions, whilst, after a very frosty start, Sunny and cold is the name of the game elsewhere

And the struggle continues on Wednesday with the UK the meat in the sandwich, thus the surface wind picking up from the south east but still remaining relatively dry with the temps picking up a shade in the south

 

[knocker]

It might be worth having a quick glance at the tweet I posted this morning as no sooner has one trough exited south courtesy of the block than another enters stage left. So continuing changeable for the rest of the week and over the weekend but nothing particularly dodgy lurking in the woodshed and at least temp now around average

[knocker]

The movement of the vortex and the strengthening of the west North American ridge that has been indicated over the last few days is more apparent with this morning's ext GEFS anomaly. Thus, although the south east Greenland ridge that develops during the course of the run is still there the European ridge is suppressed resulting in the strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard south of the vortex extension does not diverge whilst crossing the Atlantic. This would portend changeable weather but warmer than of late

[feb1991blizzard]

If this keeps up it might portend bitterly cold weather about half way through December.

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If this keeps up it might portend bitterly cold weather about half way through December.

Hopefully, because the earlier GFS and ENS don’t hold much in the way of consistant cold signals for late Nov now - just the odd cherry pickable one here and there.

Lets see if the ECM continues with the Greeny blocking at day 9/10

Edited November 16, 2019 by Ali1977

[knocker]

Some variations with the ecm later in the week. I has a conduit from the vortex via southern Greenland which keeps the atlantic subtropical ridge honest and then the troughs merge leaving the Atlantic dominated by low pressure

resulting in this position by t192

[northwestsnow]

42 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Hopefully, because the earlier GFS and ENS don’t hold much in the way of consistant cold signals for late Nov now - just the odd cherry pickable one here and there.

Lets see if the ECM continues with the Greeny blocking at day 9/10

EC is not pleasant viewing i'm afraid...

Looks wet and windy from what i can make of it...

[SLEETY]

Yes looking more zonal now,still it's not even winter yet.The bigger picture is what's more important for the long term and possible SSW too!

 

[Ali1977]

25 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is not pleasant viewing i'm afraid...

Looks wet and windy from what i can make of it...

Yep, I think the writing is on the wall now unless we get a monumental flip , these only work the other way normally  see what happens into Dec I guess.

[carinthian]

Morning all , looks like main models all in agreement at 144t. A tremendous battle going on as the NW European trough battles against the monster block to the East. A slow rose in temps to near normal by mid- weeks looks on the card but forecasting rain amounts and exact location difficult to forecast. Beyond that period out to 240t very uncertain how things will resolve but some thought from our experts heading for a Arctic incursion to break the impass. We will see. 

C

[tinybill]

the  only good thing i can see in this run is a possible dry spell from  192 hr  to  264  and  that might  change!!!

[knocker]

The ext EPS pretty much in the same ball park as the GEFS so I will not repeat the spiel

[bluearmy]

Eps and gefs vary around the Aleutian low (on gefs) and the biscay low (on eps) 

perhaps we are finally seeing a change brewing for later week 2 and beyond .... the gefs gathering around a scandi trough of sorts end week 2. 

note the spread south on the cold 850’s still evident on eps but seem to lack conviction which backs up the relevant extended cluster last night which seemed to generally merge the low heights and stall the 850’s as a consequence 

[shaky]

That is one vile ecm!!im surprised no one has mentioned the changes start from as early as 72 hours from ecm and gfs!!unfortunately i just cant back the gfs here im afraid!!we are in a bit of strife as long as those scandi heights stay where they are!!

[Jordan S]

Morning.  

So the GFS sticking with a drier interlude for the first half of next week but there is a fly in the ointment and its an area of rain that may skim Eastern England for much of Monday and be very slow to push back out into the north sea with a strong chilly northeast wind.. This is courtesy of a low pressure system set to move north out of central Europe into the north sea on Monday but whether it stays far enough east to give Eastern England a dry day or is west enough to push rain into particularly east anglia and the far south east is currently a little uncertain given the high resolution models keep it away then its more likely to stay east of eastern England for the most part but nevertheless should keep an eye on it but..elsewhere Monday is looking mostly dry with just a stray shower.

Monday/Tuesday.. 

Just thought I'd add that tree animation..

It starts mostly dry for Tuesday until a weak frontal system tries to push in from the west later but looking like falling to pieces as it makes inroads into more of the UK this because of a very strong blocking high developing out east. 

Wednesday could be mostly dry so gives the rivers more time to recede to an extent but by Thursday the gfs shows more energised weather fronts making much more progress into much of the UK bringing heavy outbreaks of rain in places clearing to then be followed by more areas of rain from the southwest through the second half of next week but breaks in between a little hill snow for Scotland too. 

Thursday and Thursday night..

But then whats this? Yes a more traditional set up beginning to take place with heavy rain pushing into Ireland/northern Ireland and western Scotland by day 9 with higher pressure to the south and east.

Monday 25th..

Its worth bearing in mind that a small shift east with the overall pattern next week particularly later next week and beyond ie blocking high further away to the east.. *could* cause us to have frequent slow moving weather fronts giving large amounts of rainfall once again to many parts of particularly England and Wales but alternatively less wet if the high pressure is stronger out east and that would mean wetter for the far northwest. 

Gem for example was a pretty dry run last night but a complete flip to the deluge once again this morning because of that subtle shift east of everything.. and with the Gem this morning a more powerful jetstream with the majority of the rainfall shown on the chart below because of a deep low pushing northeast over central and southern Britain.

Sunday 24th..

That's almost certainly going to change but worth a mention.

Yesterday afternoon's accumulated rainfall forecast.. 

Compared with this morning's Gem 10 day accumulated rainfall. 

Update you all later.

Edited November 16, 2019 by jordan smith

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 0z ensemble mean is trending milder but then it has been for days, lots of cold talk but there's a milder spell ahead but probably still predominantly unsettled.

Edited November 16, 2019 by JON SNOW

[legritter]

22 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Morning.  

So the GFS sticking with a drier interlude for the first half of next week but there is a fly in the ointment and its an area of rain that may skim Eastern England for much of Monday and be very slow to push back out into the north sea with a strong chilly northeast wind.. This is courtesy of a low pressure system set to move north out of central Europe into the north sea on Monday but whether it stays far enough east to give Eastern England a dry day or is west enough to push rain into particularly east anglia and the far south east is currently a little uncertain given the high resolution models keep it away then its more likely to stay east of eastern England for the most part but nevertheless should keep an eye on it but..elsewhere Monday is looking mostly dry with just a stray shower.

Monday night/Tuesday.. 

Just thought I'd add that tree animation..

It starts mostly dry for Tuesday until a weak frontal system tries to push in from the west later but looking like falling to pieces as it makes inroads into more of the UK this because of a very strong blocking high developing out east. 

Wednesday could be mostly dry so gives the rivers more time to recede to an extent but by Thursday the gfs shows more energised weather fronts making much more progress into much of the UK bringing heavy outbreaks of rain in places clearing to then be followed by more areas of rain from the southwest through the second half of next week but breaks in between a little hill snow for Scotland too. 

Thursday and Thursday night..

But then whats this? Yes a more traditional set up beginning to take place with heavy rain pushing into Ireland/northern Ireland and western Scotland by day 9 with higher pressure to the south and east.

Monday 25th..

Its worth bearing in mind that a small shift east with the overall pattern next week particularly later next week and beyond ie blocking high further away to the east.. *could* cause us to have frequent slow moving weather fronts giving large amounts of rainfall once again to many parts of particularly England and Wales but alternatively less wet if the high pressure is stronger out east and that would mean wetter for the far northwest. 

Gem for example was a pretty dry run last night but a complete flip to the deluge once again this morning because of that subtle shift east of everything.. and with the Gem this morning a more powerful jetstream with the majority of the rainfall shown on the chart below because of a deep low pushing northeast over central and southern Britain.

Sunday 24th..

That's almost certainly going to change but worth a mention.

Yesterday afternoon's accumulated rainfall forecast.. 

Compared with this morning's Gem 10 day accumulated rainfall. 

Update you all later.

Fantastic post ,Thanks .

[Jordan S]

1 minute ago, legritter said:

Fantastic post ,Thanks .

Thankyou and no problem.

Edited November 16, 2019 by jordan smith

[Methuselah]

Aways out in FI, I know, but it's a slideroonie! So we'd best make the most of it!

   

[Mike Poole]

GEM 0z drags a down quite a potent northerly towards the end:

850s at T240:

I agree the ensemble means have looked mild for a while now on the 10 day timescale, but with a still disturbed vortex I'm more interested in individual op runs.

[Ali1977]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM 0z drags a down quite a potent northerly towards the end:

850s at T240:

I agree the ensemble means have looked mild for a while now on the 10 day timescale, but with a still disturbed vortex I'm more interested in individual op runs.

850 wise this is probably the most potent day 10 yet, including ENS. A northerly isn’t out the question at around the 10 day mark, FI early at the minute with this set up. 
At 126 the latest run is looking a little more blocky/slidey , marginally though but enough for a different outcome by day 10. USA at this early stage looks quite different . 06z top

 

 

Edited November 16, 2019 by Ali1977