Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[Jordan S]

Wow a much drier Gem update this evening compared to this time yesterday with high pressure to the north and east closer to us therefore keep rain bearing front through next week mostly at bay chilly too but nothing untoward for this time of year with winds coming from a general southeastly direction upto day ten. Could look very different tomorrow ofcourse I suspect it will be more unsettled than that but we'll see.

Gem accumulated rainfall.. 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the extended GEFS 12z mean suggests more chance of a mild start to the meteorological winter.

[knocker]

A quick glance at the ecm det for the of next week without suggesting the detail is a done deal

[Mike Poole]

Well after what I imagine most will consider a fairly meh tell us nothing new 12z suite, we have the end of the ECM, T192, T216:

Note the WAA (warm air advection) up into Greenland, and the isobars suggest fairly long draw, T240:

I think the NH is primed for such an evolution to stand and deliver (!) at quite short range...would expect this sort of thing to show up on any model more frequently as the days progress...

Edited November 15, 2019 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Well after what I imagine most will consider a fairly meh tell us nothing new 12z suite, we have the end of the ECM, T192, T216:

Note the WAA (warm air advection) up into Greenland, and the isobars suggest fairly long draw, 

Yes, wonder what will show up on the means / spreads this time BA?

 

[SMU]

^^ Extreme hybrid version of a displaced ( North ) -EPO ridge

Sounds good....

[weatherguy]

I'm surprised there's not more excitement over the 12z ECM's day 10 chart:

A lovely Greenland high forming which looks like it would only grow in strength, the "UK low" remaining in situ to prevent it being flattened out, while the PV is coming roaring down from the Arctic...

[mountain shadow]

11 minutes ago, weatherguy said:

I'm surprised there's not more excitement over the 12z ECM's day 10 chart:

 

Too many let downs in the past. Once we get that chart inside t+144 then I'll get excited. 

[Mike Poole]

21 minutes ago, weatherguy said:

I'm surprised there's not more excitement over the 12z ECM's day 10 chart:

A lovely Greenland high forming which looks like it would only grow in strength, the "UK low" remaining in situ to prevent it being flattened out, while the PV is coming roaring down from the Arctic...

Yes absolutely agree. The focus on here is often regarding the high latitude blocks, but if, as I believe, the chance of cold and snow to the UK this year relies on a southerly tracking jet more than most years (because it may be stronger), then the, albeit faster moving low pressure systems, and by implication a trough into Southern Europe,  are massively important to get a handle on whether any cold snowy scenario  is likely at the medium range.

Edited November 15, 2019 by Mike Poole

[damianslaw]

14 minutes ago, weatherguy said:

I'm surprised there's not more excitement over the 12z ECM's day 10 chart:

A lovely Greenland high forming which looks like it would only grow in strength, the "UK low" remaining in situ to prevent it being flattened out, while the PV is coming roaring down from the Arctic...

I agree, eyes need to be on developments to our NE, and the transfer of energy in the PV towards Siberia which would create the scandi trough and consequent cold air advection on the east side of Greenland, conversely warm air advection on the west side - the classic evolution to a Greenland high. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Who fancies a trip to Iceland next weekend ?

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

56 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Looking at the extended GEFS 12z mean suggests more chance of a mild start to the meteorological winter.

Jon, much prefer that type weather to what we've had last 4 weeks or so, to me, that looks mainly dry and 14 degrees or so here

[knocker]

The is a certain consistency about the ext anomalies at the moment with the  this evening's EPS trending the same as the GEFS. That is the vortex drifting over northern Russia as the ridge in the western North America extends into the Arctic with the European ridge somewhat suppressed as a ridge develops into south east Greenland. Thus, and this becoming a tad repetitive, a strong westerly upper exiting the eastern seaboard south of the vortex extension but very quickly diverging leaving one arm to continue east to the trough over western Europe before hitting the buffers of the eastern block, This would suggest changeable weather continuing, perhaps not as intense, with systems tracking south east before losing eastward momentum.Temps now around average.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

24 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Who fancies a trip to Iceland next weekend ?

 

To late mate... I already did the weekly shop at Sainsburys!! At them prices, I wish I would have left it to Iceland now! Ecm mean not quite promoting those heights towards Greenland just yet!! The mean perhaps looking a little underwhelming!! Hopefully things will begin to look much more exciting after the election!! Enjoy your weekends good folks.. 

[Frosty.]

As you can see, tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean continues the trend of the last few days for a gradual change to milder albeit still unsettled conditions during next week and indeed beyond.

Matt beat me to it..not that its a race or anything!

[northwestsnow]

EC mean is not pleasant viewing for those of us wanting a change from this horrible wet pattern.Worse case scenario really as the Atlantic lows just grind to a halt in our locale.

Pretty similar right through ..

[Methuselah]

I wonder whether a warm Europe (everywhere but some coastal fringes) now, correlates to a brutal January and February? Well, it's better than a solitary sleet-blob being spotted in Basingstoke!

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, wonder what will show up on the means / spreads this time BA?

 

A cluster feb!!!

[knocker]

NOAA in the same ball park as the GEFS, EPS

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, wonder what will show up on the means / spreads this time BA?

 

Well it doesn't show much on the charts I've seen, ECM mean T240:

But the wider picture is this: in this solar minimum year with certIn favourable drivers, I won't repeat them, can we expect a December like 09 or 10??  And, from the models we still don't know.    That's frustrating.  But the building blocks (as some like to refer to them) are beginning to fall into place in a housing estate construction site that is massively complex...just please don't let any politicians on site wearing hi-viz!  please!  I've now got so off topic, I may have to moderate myself!!

A major factor in the chart is the displacement of the trop polar vortex on the Siberian side. We live another week, or month, meanwhile the blocked trop pattern rearranges itself hopefully favourable to the UK, or we need a SSW....both of these are possible as are neither...we travel on....

Edited November 15, 2019 by Mike Poole

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well it doesn't show much on the charts I've seen, ECM mean T240:

 

Spreads Mike .... 850’s most revealing 

Edited November 15, 2019 by bluearmy

[feb1991blizzard]

Not a very good one either.

Yes @bluearmy - the narrowest spread at that range i have ever seen, you can bet your bottom dollar you won't see that kind of spread when the mean is below -10c!!

Edited November 15, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Mike Poole]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Spreads Mike 

Yes, thanks BA, that does tell another story and put some momentum behind the ECM det run and mean, here T240::

Shows uncertainty within the ensemble runs specifically of the possibility of ridging into Greenland...we should watch this signal in future runs, see if it develops, if it does it does then we could land back in 2009 or 2010 territory...watch this space (as if you weren't going to !)...

Just so as not confuse anyone, the chart I posted is the spread (standard deviation) of the 500 hPa heights chart, whereas @feb1991blizzard has posted above the spread of the 850hPa temperatures. 

Edited November 15, 2019 by Mike Poole

[bluearmy]

 

you can see the cluster of low 850’s headed south past Iceland at day 10

Edited November 15, 2019 by bluearmy

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Not a very good ECM mean tonight, a definite trend to milder temps next week!! But after just viewing the extended 14 day ensembles... We do see a gradual decline again beyond day 10...the mean perhaps back down to close to 0C..also a fair amount of spread, with quite a few members going below freezing!!! Long way off, but perhaps only a briefer milder interlude.