Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[phil nw.]

51 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Well even the cold plunge in to Eastern Europe is unlikely, more like to north western Russia or even further back to central Asia. Eastern Europe is firmly locked in mild temperatures apart from few rare ENS members, overall all GEFS,EPS and EC weeklies have us under very warm anomalies throughout.

Yes it's ironic in a way. Cold lovers look for charts that slow the Atlantic down along with a southerly tracking jet but the picture is not complete in this case.

There is so much blocking on our side of the globe being modeled but currently the way it has developed it keeps any deep cold away from the UK.

Ok it's been on the cold side with some places seeing snow this from a polar maritime type flow from the north west.We have seen weather systems slide se as they come up the eastern blocking but this pattern is set to be modified somewhat.

If we look at the day 10 ecm ens charts we can see that the Atlantic is relatively quiet but because the Canadian vortex get's weaker the cold north westerly feed gets cut and temperatures return towards average later.

The trend to move a chunk of the vortex towards Siberia continues but is only one part of the pattern needed to get cold here.This setup sends the Russian cold south not west because of the Euro high.

Those ht. anomalies stretching north west from se.europe are locking us into this persistent pattern with only minor changes at the surface,maybe less rain and those slightly higher temperatures.

 

 

 

Edited November 15, 2019 by phil nw.

[Methuselah]

Most of the scatter, in today's GEFS 06Zs, is in SLP -- temperatures don't wander 'too far' from what the operational run is suggesting -- and today's run seems to broadly follow yesterday's 06Z, with its relatively mild easterlies...?

   

   

What to make of it?

[KyleHenry]

29 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Most of the scatter, in today's GEFS 06Zs, is in SLP -- temperatures don't wander 'too far' from what the operational run is suggesting -- and today's run seems to broadly follow yesterday's 06Z, with its relatively mild easterlies...?

   

   

What to make of it?

Step by step, we are watching the huge tropospheric process developing and it takes time. All began last week in the Pacific which now leads to the creation of Scandinavian HP and Aleutian LP. This process is running later than the GFS predicted. Beginning of December/ tail end of November is the current prediction. 

 

This is is how a wave one enters the stratosphere and disrupts the TPV and eventually displaces the SPV. 

 

Pacific is ready to repeat this process but this time it will be during winter proper hence why many are the end of December and beginning of January for the true effects. Asia first then USA will go and Europe last. If all goes to plan.

[nick sussex]

Is the UK going to be writing the guide to ten different ways to avoid the cold !

This is turning into several open goals missed , just when you think the opportunity is there another chance is hoofed over the cross bar !

Putting that frustration aside the models are still trying to build pressure to the nw and desperately trying to drop a trough south towards Scandi .

Given the timeframes involved things could still turn out more favourable, can we just get a couple of decent strikers on to put the ball in the net this time .

[legritter]

Hi gang ,this is a very interesting time of the year and many of us are looking forward to the winter months .Also a very frustrating time especially with so much Data and views from people organisations etc telling us their views on the coming Winter . In a nutshell, not even mother nature knows yet and if she does shes keeping it quiet. Back to the Models my straw is the fair possibility of high pressure setting up next week to our North   as shown by the Ecm in its later stages ,fingers crossed, Stellas at the ready prozack in the cupboard and a bit of luck ,cheers gang .

[knocker]

Just musing a while. The plume of warmer air well illustrated to the west and the tropopause on the midday Camborne ascent is down at 367mb -46C

[Jordan S]

Gfs short term for a few days illustrates the weather won't likely be too wet compared to recently but let's face it that's not difficult is it? until perhaps the end of next week.. chilly for this weekend but then turning milder next week. Later today rain in the far south east pushes west northwest into more of southern UK quite heavy locally but mostly on the light/moderate side this then eventually pushes into Wales and Western England later tonight before fizzing out although some showery pieces of rain continuing.. elswhere looking mostly dry into Saturday morning with just a few showers a widespread frost for Scotland too. 

GFS.. 

For Saturday and Sunday showery rain continues for northeastern areas but elsewhere some drier weather this weekend although there still will be showers around and perhaps more persistent rain and hill snow for northwest Scotland later and feeling cold. 

Just for curiosity sake the next few days not looking particularly wet (thankfully) for flood effected areas but if the Gfs is right about next Friday it would be a big problem with very heavy rain effecting England and wales it is somewhat backed by the Ecm but ofcourse too far out for any certainty.

The overall pattern is more blocked with higher pressure continuing to build to the north of us but never aligning themselves to bring particularly cold weather for now so long as this pattern continues then the wet conditions that have prevailed for the last 7 weeks for England and Wales will continue upto day 10 but there should be more drier periods too so not all bad.

Gfs..

GFS ensembles.. A rise in upper air temperatures then perhaps a cooling trend. Staying unsettled. 

Edited November 15, 2019 by jordan smith

[northwestsnow]

UKMO seems to have High pressure nudging in at 144 this evening.

Can't post charts as on rubbish phone.

[Jordan S]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO seems to have High pressure nudging in at 144 this evening.

Can't post charts as on rubbish phone.

This chart? 

Ah sorry that's the midnight run haha similar though to the 12z. 12z posted by @Ali1977below

Edited November 15, 2019 by jordan smith

[Ali1977]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO seems to have High pressure nudging in at 144 this evening.

Can't post charts as on rubbish phone.

UKMO and GFS At 144, I’d say has GFS slightly stronger block to our North. 

[SMU]

Just floating this chart from the archive for possible future reference.....
 

[shaky]

That has to be one of the most boring set of 12zs from the ukmo and gfs in some time!!its just meh and a load of boredom!!!no cold weather and no really mild south westerlies!!the only good thing from the runs this evening are that it actually dries up for once this autumn and we have a respite from.the rain!!

Edited November 15, 2019 by shaky

[Ali1977]

Not sure what to make of the day 10 chart, chilly and open to improvement with the lack of any PV north or north West maybe!!

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just floating this chart from the archive for possible future reference.....
 

That’s a good find, and very similar to the charts for the last 3-4 days - if only we could have the same outcome !! 
 

Maybe that build up of WAA over Alaska helped back in 2010!! 

Edited November 15, 2019 by Ali1977

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

That’s a good find, and very similar to the charts for the last 3-4 days - if only we could have the same outcome !! 

Not as big Alaskan ridge at the present though.

Edited November 15, 2019 by mountain shadow

[knocker]

The gfs 5-10 NH  profile not a total surprise A strong jet running east under the ridge before hitting the block in the east

 

[mushymanrob]

11 minutes ago, knocker said:

The gfs 5-10 NH  profile not a total surprise A strong jet running east under the ridge before hitting the block in the east

 

that looks like its heading for an "undercut" to me...

[bluearmy]

The trend Is firmly in the camp where the blocking diverts the systems further to the sw as time ticks by on the modelling .... just got to get that blocking to detach and allow some CAA 

[Ali1977]

A few ENS at 192, there is still plenty of chance we could quickly jump into this forecast - a few tweaks here and there.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean it's gradually becoming milder next week and staying unsettled.

Edited November 15, 2019 by JON SNOW

[Ali1977]

By day 12 the NH looks like it’s giving up with trying to develop any type of early winter PV, it’s in a right mess - still some twists and turns over the next few weeks and I still think there is a chance of a colder last few days of Nov. 

 

This would be chilly!! 

Edited November 15, 2019 by Ali1977

[Mike Poole]

Just to comment on the strat for a moment, here's the zonal wind chart from  stratobserve    today from GFS 0z and it's friends:

Same trend as yesterday with interestingly the op run being an outlier.  The NAM plot, even with this potentially rogue op run still maintaining the trop strat disconnect, although not as much as runs of a week or so ago:

The GEFS at T384:

Number 7 and 9 there close to full reversal, but this is pressure towards a displacement SSW rather than a split, good if we are edging towards favourable blocks and don't want it disrupted, and bad if not, we may have to wait awhile. GFS 12z T384 showing a little more interest to me:

More interest because the warming seems to wrap round nearly half the planet, so it may be gaining traction again.  

Edited November 15, 2019 by Mike Poole

[damianslaw]

Models in good agreement at present into the semi-reliable even, which you often can't say. Changes are afoot which hopefully will result in some drier conditions for a time at least for all compared to the very wet weather recently, but still overall staying unsettled with further bouts of rain, and as we move towards end of next week, unfortunately these could become quite slow moving and heavy affairs again, and yet again targeting central parts, as we see low pressure anchored down over the UK not able to go any where due to rising pressure to our NE and north. 

Gradually becoming milder as we the week wears on as well, as we import some milder air from off the near continent, nothing exceptional, but feeling less cold than recently. With it becoming quite cloudy and overcast as well, as we lose any polar air influence.

Longer term - models suggesting heights staying strong to the NE and trying to edge NW towards Greenland, and a southerly tracking jet will be maintained, signs also of possible cold air advection down the eastern flank which would allow for a more concerted transfer of heights to Greenland enabling a colder pattern to develop - but possibly still staying unsettled with low pressure never that far away to our SW, slider low territory which could make for some significant wintry precipitation. Alas this is just one option, the other is that we maintain the status quo with low pressure continuing to park itself directly over the UK but in a position that doesn't enable any cold air to infiltrate. The other scenario is for high pressure to anchor down from the north and we end up with dry stable conditions, and depending on its position either a cold frosty spell, or a dank chilly spell as hinted at by the Met Office. All conjecture, lots of options as we enter winter.

[knocker]

The ext GEFS this evening continues the advancement of the vortex along with the west North America ridge extending a tad north west resulting in a slight weakening of the European ridge, albeit it extending a tad further south over southern Greenland. So still a strong upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard south of the vortex extension but diverging and abating in mid Atlantic as one arm continues on to the trough in western Europe. So perhaps still changeable without the intensity of late and temps around average

Edited November 15, 2019 by knocker

[Mike Poole]

I did promise to comment on the GloSea5 output when it finally got published on the MO website.  But there isn't actually much to say, temperature outputs look much the same as October for Dec/Jan/Feb:

Recent update making more of a cold pool in the Atlantic.  Moving on one month the picture doesn't change:

The October update did suggest some colder runs in the mix on that timeframe but they seem to have gone. One other chart worth posting is the SST:

A cold pool there might have been detrimental to cold prospects in previous years, but if a much more average southerly jet is indeed to become relevant (as per previous posts) this might work in favour of snowier prospects, maybe.

If that's the only positive I can find, then we should hope that the more recent ECM seasonal forecasts have changed the game, as apparently they might have.  But on it's own the November GloSea5 leaves cold hope as far away as the earlier Autumn updates, which are increasingly being proved to be false as month proceeds to month...

As you will know from previous posts, I'm still proceeding on the premise that this model has missed something, exactly what to be determined...

 

Edited November 15, 2019 by Mike Poole