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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 0z ensemble mean continues to trend milder in the mid / longer term and stays unsettled.

EDM0-192.thumb.gif.7ebed6d55d9b7a9d7e8f635ce1f4803a.gifEDM1-192.thumb.gif.ddddde71f9bd5f3ac87c64c78bb21793.gifEDM0-240.thumb.gif.e42e062ec9dae3b77a9099f76fb294f0.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.a2895b07a863edf125134023d667c9c9.gif

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The ec op looks doesn’t look to have support on the spreads days 9/10 wrt to the polar plunge to our north 

Looks like some support on the mean although probably not overwhelming.

image.thumb.png.ac70cd8b507ff606f0b442c03a6ea54f.png

You can see that by the way it looks to be teeing up a N'ly, of course nowhere near enough support that the plunge would show up on a D11-12 mean chart.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Looks like some support on the mean although probably not overwhelming.

image.thumb.png.ac70cd8b507ff606f0b442c03a6ea54f.png

You can see that by the way it looks to be teeing up a N'ly, of course nowhere near enough support that the plunge would show up on a D11-12 mean chart.

Was specifically referencing the chunk of vortex headed south feb 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Was specifically referencing the chunk of vortex headed south feb 

See what you mean - although there might be a few members which do just that at D12(ish) - totally unrelated perhaps but on the London eps graph last night there was a drop off of temps around D4-15.

image.thumb.png.6b6ffd4e930736f0a808c2f609b91782.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

See what you mean - although there might be a few members which do just that at D12(is) - totally unrelated perhaps but on the London eps graph last night there was a drop of of temps around D4-15.

image.thumb.png.6b6ffd4e930736f0a808c2f609b91782.png

Would be sub zero if that ec op went out to day 12! 

its an outlier re depth of heights in the flow but that doesn’t mean we won’t see a similar general evolution .......

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

An interesting end to the GFS 00Z, methinks: no raging +NAO and anomalous warmth still pushing north into SE Europe...And the UK would definitely be on the cold side?:oldsmile:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Just as the 00Z operational run ends-up on the cold side of the ensembles!

prmslLeicestershire.png   t850Leicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png   prcpLeicestershire.png

But, hey...it's always good to know what not to expect!?:gathering:

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
56 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The ec op looks doesn’t look to have support on the spreads days 9/10 wrt to the polar plunge to our north 

That is shocking news, who would have thought a D10 ECM op showing a cold plunge not being supported by its members!

Anyway, with the current pattern, sustained cold looks off the menu this month, maybe still chances of cooler than average at times, certainly no late Indian Summer, with the blocky local theme still evident out till D16 a good probability.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Should that WAA dig further into Greenland we may get a cut off high with a Northerly down the Eastern flank - we shall see in a minute!! 

87C1F0D2-FC6B-44A7-82E7-DE85707E3A8D.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Quite a strange chart for the time of year.

0EAB4AC7-5A1A-4F66-8FBE-391CCF442EDD.png

Aye, very strange...It's a case of a -NAO producing very un--NAO-like weather...?

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Curiouser and curiouser?:unknw:

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Should that WAA dig further into Greenland we may get a cut off high with a Northerly down the Eastern flank - we shall see in a minute!! 

87C1F0D2-FC6B-44A7-82E7-DE85707E3A8D.png

Here comes the plunge into continental Europe anyway - too far East to affect us but a good building block, the troughing SW of Greenland will be just too strong on this run for us to get a direct hit.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here comes the plunge into continental Europe anyway - too far East to affect us but a good building block, the troughing SW of Greenland will be just too strong on this run for us to get a direct hit.

Indeed , another interesting FI again though. Greeny high seems a pretty strong bet going on current 10 day charts. Can we get in on the action is another question. 

4069C195-83E6-4DE1-A5DB-E424D425F962.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
13 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Indeed , another interesting FI again though. Greeny high seems a pretty strong bet going on current 10 day charts. Can we get in on the action is another question. 

4069C195-83E6-4DE1-A5DB-E424D425F962.png

Going to end up not great this run - too much energy around Greenland - starting to flatten out.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Indeed , another interesting FI again though. Greeny high seems a pretty strong bet going on current 10 day charts. Can we get in on the action is another question. 

4069C195-83E6-4DE1-A5DB-E424D425F962.png

The problem is that we have seen many runs with this entrenched pattern and at no time has the UK been subject to a cold upper flow, the contrary mostly. We know FI GFS loves giving us these great cold charts, so I suspect this pattern just is not conducive to UK cold even with the "cold bias of FI"

Again, even on the 06z, with cold being directed from the Arctic we have the spoiler omnipresent Azores High forcing the pattern to push east. We need any GH to sustain in that region, not be conjoined by the two waves currently holding the UK in no mans land, the Euro and Azores ridges. Even at T324 we are in that locked synoptic:

gfseu-0-324.thumb.png.ba41dee8df15717b49fb81c114297342.png 

This November, from start to finish may be summed up in the above chart and what that cyclic pattern entails. Maybe December will bring a reboot to the NH drivers?

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Wouldn't worry about individual runs....wildly different as usual.

image.thumb.png.5db0a913a8de7f5241daff462a35ac6e.png

Some warming showing again at the back of the run, but hard to tell accuracy at this range.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Going to end up not great this run - too much energy around Greenland - starting to flatten out.

indeed very very close though.

plenty of wave breaking though so maybe something will flip towards a more favourable outcome.

been an extremely interesting start with blocking a little more robust than recent years.

a 1050 or 1060 mb greeny high would be a cracking start to winter proper.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, MR EXTREMES said:

indeed very very close though.

plenty of wave breaking though so maybe something will flip towards a more favourable outcome.

been an extremely interesting start with blocking a little more robust than recent years.

a 1050 or 1060 mb greeny high would be a cracking start to winter proper.

Slightly worried though that the strat-trop coupling will just be delayed rather than cancelled and then a strong zonal flow will ensue meaning all we do is give ourselves less time to break it down with an SSW - that isn't a prediction, just a concern / observation, we have had many times lately when things look promising in November and then failed to deliver, i think we will be OK and get some chances though but further on into winter.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
46 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye, very strange...It's a case of a -NAO producing very un--NAO-like weather...?

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Curiouser and curiouser?:unknw:

there is however a chance,

that even though the deep cold plunges into scandi and into eastern europe it wouldn't take much for cold to enter from the back door from the east

564111880_Inkedgfs-0-384(3)_LI.thumb.jpg.7fa414d72ae6cfb44ac9d36b34e4623f.jpg.

. wouldn't mind seeing a continued southerly tracking jet and lows diving nw to southeast and for continued unsettled in the med.

far from done deal but then im not keen on the erratic nature of the gfs.

although i hold higher confidence in the ecm and the gefs. and sometimes the gem especially for height patterns.

but then all models do struggle with uncommon patterns.

Edited by MR EXTREMES
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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
4 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

there is however a chance,

that even though the deep cold plunges into scandi and into eastern europe it wouldn't take much for cold to enter from the back door from the eas.

. wouldn't mind seeing a continued southerly tracking jet and lows diving nw to southeast and for continued unsettled in the med.

far from done deal but then im not keen on the erratic nature of the gfs.

although i hold higher confidence in the ecm and the gefs. and sometimes the gem especially for height patterns.

but then all models do struggle with uncommon patterns.

Well even the cold plunge in to Eastern Europe is unlikely, more like to north western Russia or even further back to central Asia. Eastern Europe is firmly locked in mild temperatures apart from few rare ENS members, overall all GEFS,EPS and EC weeklies have us under very warm anomalies throughout.

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