Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Plenty of interest from the GEM ensembles  

[Jordan S]

That's certainly a large upper air temperature differential between mild members of Gfs ensembles and the coldest ensemble members in the extended range  no suprise obviously as that's shown towards the end of the runs.Although some of the *mild* members could be pretty cold with inversion particularly if high pressure is shown to sit over the uk and the cold members would be just that... Cold although mabye modified depending on where low pressure sits. Take those very cold members with a wheelbarrow full of salt until it is shown within the next 10 days.

Edited November 15, 2019 by jordan smith

[ArHu3]

6 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

That's certainly a large upper air temperature differential between mild members of Gfs ensembles and the coldest ensemble members in the extended range.  no suprise I guess.. 

I didn't look at the individual member charts but often these wide ranges indicate not a lot of general uncertainty but instead being in a battleground of warm/cold air location. In such a situation uf you look at other locations 50-100 north, south, east and west the ensemble is completely in agreement with each other 

[SLEETY]

Those GFS ensembles show lots of uncertainty in the long range, doesn't it always.

My money is on a very cold Maritime Arctic air outbreak by the months end.

[Jordan S]

7 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

I didn't look at the individual member charts but often these wide ranges indicate not a lot of general uncertainty but instead being in a battleground of warm/cold air location. In such a situation uf you look at other locations 50-100 north, south, east and west the ensemble is completely in agreement with each other 

Not quite sure I agree with that a big spread tends to often indicate quite a bit of uncertainty especially with the spread shown currently. I'm also more talking about the bigger picture. 

[Jordan S]

33 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Those GFS ensembles show lots of uncertainty in the long range, doesn't it always.

My money is on a very cold Maritime Arctic air outbreak by the months end.

I'm simply just discussing what's shown that's all and yeah I Woudn't be suprised as this pattern is so far unusual also some people take the cold outlier members to be somehow more likely than they actually are so I was just saying to take them with caution I know most do.  Anyway mean sea level pressure forecast shows a trend towards higher pressure..so less wet outlook mabye..

Edited November 15, 2019 by jordan smith

[Gael_Force]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Can’t remember what it showed for week 3 21 days ago or week 4 a month ago ...... what it won’t show is hill snow on a given day ! 

Reasonable placement of heights and picked up on the deep digging trough into SW Europe.

[ArHu3]

4 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Not quite sure I agree with that a big spread tends to often indicate quite a bit of uncertainty especially with the spread shown currently. I'm also more talking about the bigger picture. 

Uncertainty for certain locations yes but the bigger picture could be quite certain. I haven't looked at the individual members now, over here it's too early for winter anyway, just looking at the big indicators (polar vortex, snow and ice covers)  for now, not too much to the models

[Jordan S]

Atm it's both I'm not just referring to winter I'm referring to anytime of the year I was mearly describing what the ensembles are showing and what it means to any new users or some that may not understand ensembles. Anyway moving on. With higher pressure continuing to dominate North of us next week continuing to keep the jet stream to the south of the UK or over we can expect flooding concerns to continue with plenty more rain shown to come through at frequent intervals some perhaps slow moving yet again although not a total washout of a week with drier spells especially further northwest. 

GFS.. 

Edited November 15, 2019 by jordan smith

[knocker]

A glance at the EC weeklies update for the 1 December > 21st

First week upstream low pressure over the Aleutians, ridge western NA with vortex lobe northern Canada, Strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard under some ridging into south east Greenland, abating a tad in the east.  Temp above average in Europe

Second week more development of the vortex lobe/trough northern Canada and low pressure over Greenland resulting in  a stronger flow across the Atlantic.Temps still above average apart from Norway

This theme is developed further in week three, albeit still a suggestion of ridging into south east Greenland Temps still above average in Europe apart from Norway

[Ali1977]

Day 11 and finally a better looking Op, a slidey shape to the LP to the NW may help keep the Greeny heights. 

 

Similar in FI, this would be pretty cold I imagine with hard frosts and possible freezing fog. Better than rain for sure. 
 

All in all this is a very good run for coldies 

Edited November 15, 2019 by Ali1977

[SLEETY]

Huge blocking over the Arctic in this run,if this continues then we could be looking at something really special for this winter.

[knocker]

The North Atlantic 300mb wind field and surface analysis for midnight

Area of rain, currently aligned across the north of England is at last easing and starting to fragment and this will continue through the day, perhaps even giving some sunny interval by the afternoon. But showers will continue to feed into north easterly and westerly coastal regions as well as northern Scotland. By late afternoon more persistent rain will effect the south east courtesy of a shallow low

This rain will track north west though this evening and overnight but remaining clear over N. Ireland and Scotland with a frost by morning

Still some patchy rain around on Saturday, mainly in southern Scotland and northern England but generally a better day with sunny intervals but an occlusion is slowly approaching Ireland. Perhaps a tad warmer

By Sunday another intense extra tropical cyclone is tracking towards Greenland promoting some downstream ridging resulting in pretty static showery day over the UK

On Monday the low is filling and moving east across the Atlantic and after early patchy rain in the south east it will be a sunny and cold day in the UK after a widespread frost.

By Tuesday the filling and complex low is dominating the area west/south west of the UK and by late afternoon the associated occlusion will bring heavy rain to N. Ireland and the south west. Elsewhere it will be generally sunny but cold after a widespread early frost

[knocker]

According to the gfs the rest of the week is dominated by the filling low so a showery with sunny intervals period with some longer spells of rain thrown in and some snow on the higher ground but temps creeping up to be near average. All subject to later adjustment

[knocker]

This morning the GEFS ext anomaly still has the Vortex lobe dominating the Arctic with an extension of the Euro ridge edging into eastern Greenland, an area that has had some additional input from amplification of the Atlantic subtropical high during the evolution So still a strong westerly upper flow running south of an extension of the vortex and diverging in mid Atlantic with one arm continuing to track to the trough south of the UK

[tinybill]

looking at the gfs no let up  in the wet spell  must keep a eye on next week not looking nice at all for some areas   all ready  with problems

[knocker]

The latter half of the ecm det run is not a million miles away from the gfs and trending towards the ext GEFS

[WxHerts]

Another excellent ECM at 240h, with a strong blocking high to our west whilst very cold air to our north begins a rapid descent south...parts of that chart are December 16th 2010 esque (a lot less extreme ofc)! Here’s to an excellent day of model watching  

Edited November 15, 2019 by WXHerts

[January Snowstorm]

The models just won't let go of the idea of blocking to our North. If this continues its surely only a matter of time before a serious cold spell unleashes. The most important part of this mornings models for me is the building of some very cold uppers to our North. Get them in across Europe and the Easterlys with little bite right now will become raging lions!!

[shaky]

Right everyone has posted charts that look good into lala land but not one poster has mentioned if there are any improvements in the mid term apart from knocker!!lol!!by the way another rainy damp start here this morning!euro4 forecasts more rain later!!by far the wettest autumn here in years!!

 

 

[bluearmy]

5 hours ago, Gael_Force said:

Reasonable placement of heights and picked up on the deep digging trough into SW Europe.

As mused in the past, week 3 is certainly worth looking at ...... beyond that, you need to be checking out how week 2 and 3 look for continuity on the current ext eps/gefs/NOAA before working out its probability......

[mb018538]

27 minutes ago, shaky said:

Right everyone has posted charts that look good into lala land but not one poster has mentioned if there are any improvements in the mid term apart from knocker!!lol!!by the way another rainy damp start here this morning!euro4 forecasts more rain later!!by far the wettest autumn here in years!!

 

 

In the mid term - slightly. IOf that low approaching from the west stalls out to the W/SW, then many areas may escape another total washout.



The SW corner still fairly wet, but good to see many areas that need to dry out aren't as wet on the 00z GFS. ECM is similar too.

[bluearmy]

The ec op looks doesn’t look to have support on the spreads days 9/10 wrt to the polar plunge to our north 

[knocker]

The ext EPS this morning paying a certain amount of lip service to the GEFS with the vortex drifting over northern Russia with the ridge into eastern Greenland. Thus the strong westerly upper flow beneath the extension of the vortex quickly diverges south of Greenland with one arm continuing on to the trough south of the UK where it again diverges courtesy of the European ridge  Tricky surface analysis with temps around average

[joggs]

58 minutes ago, shaky said:

Right everyone has posted charts that look good into lala land but not one poster has mentioned if there are any improvements in the mid term apart from knocker!!lol!!by the way another rainy damp start here this morning!euro4 forecasts more rain later!!by far the wettest autumn here in years!!

 

 

As long as its model related, people can post any chart in lala land they want.