Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[blizzard81]

What an upgrade from 24 hours ago. 

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

What an upgrade from 24 hours ago. 

Hopefully the 144 hour chart upgrades from yesterday!!this saga may not be over yet!!

[ALL ABOARD]

4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Hopefully the 144 hour chart upgrades from yesterday!!this saga may not be over yet!!

Down she goes...




Small adjustments from here, I.E higher heights, shallower low and it could be a decent slider.

 

Edited November 14, 2019 by ALL ABOARD

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Hopefully the 144 hour chart upgrades from yesterday!!this saga may not be over yet!!

This is yesterday's

[Frosty.]

The UKMO 12h ends quite a bit milder as well as being unsettled.

Edited November 14, 2019 by JON SNOW

[WxHerts]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Hopefully the 144 hour chart upgrades from yesterday!!this saga may not be over yet!!

People being too quick to react at the moment IMO, a few days of somewhat less good runs and it's all over...massive uncertainty at the moment so it's just interesting seeing what's being put out. The trend is our friend, and so is EC at 168h when compared what it was showing at this time yesterday - the differences are laughable.

[booferking]

Day 8 on-wards is were my interest lies can it sniff out heights towards Greenland.

[knocker]

A quick glance at the ecm for the middle of next week as the upper trough tracks slowly across the Atlantic until the energy hits the buffers

Edited November 14, 2019 by knocker

[blizzard81]

Dare I say - 'potential'? 

[That ECM]

Being selfish I hope gfs is wrong in fi. I go to Ivalo most years to make sure I’m on the right list and then to make sure socks have been crossed of the other list minus 16 uppers is a bit harsh even for me.

[Kentspur]

4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Being selfish I hope gfs is wrong in fi. I go to Ivalo most years to make sure I’m on the right list and then to make sure socks have been crossed of the other list minus 16 uppers is a bit harsh even for me.

Minus 12 uppers for me as I arrive in Riga❄❄❄

[booferking]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Dare I say - 'potential'? 

Yea having a go alright.

[blizzard81]

Dare I say 'incredible potential'? 

[WxHerts]

240h is excellent.

[Mike Poole]

Decent finish from the ECM 12z, T240:

Indication with the slight negative tilt that the next low (the one touching the tip of Greenland) could slide, which could help to build the Greenland high.  Interesting.

Edited November 14, 2019 by Mike Poole

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, WXHerts said:

240h is excellent.

Let's hope the models are onto a new trend. Nice looking charts for the end of November. 

[Mapantz]

Can we have a bit more of an explanation as to why a chart may be 'excellent' please? As i've said before, it's not helpful to those members reading this thread, wishing to learn.

Thanks. 

[blizzard81]

Ec46 might be interesting tonight. 

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Decent finish from the ECM 12z, T240:

Indication with the slight tilt that the next low could slide, could build the Greenland high.  Interesting.

Defo a good afternoon for coldies looking towards later Nov, let’s hope for a similar upgrade tomorrow. If 10 day ECM mean shows heights into Greenland I’d be happy , if we can get a northerly the frigid air isn’t too far away. 

Edited November 14, 2019 by Ali1977

[WxHerts]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Can we have a bit more of an explanation as to why a chart may be 'excellent' please? As i've said before, it's not helpful to those members reading this thread, wishing to learn.

Thanks. 

Roger that...ECM 12z features rapidly rising heights to the North round Greenland, along with strong hints of retrogression. Then finally the cherry on top is a strong low near the east coast of the US encouraging WAA and thus further strengthening heights to the North whilst also increasing the chances of an undercut later on. Meanwhile the Azores high is no where to be seen - always excellent news for coldies

[blizzard81]

Only one run of course but a great CFS December pressure anomaly for cold lovers. Massive positive (off the scale) pressure anomaly over northern Scandinavia. Scandi high for December anybody? 

Edited November 14, 2019 by blizzard81

[knocker]

Similar to this morning the Ext EPS does not make as much of ridging branching south into eastern Greenland which means the vortex extension across northern Canada and associated trough are a tad more influential, Thus the upper flow across the Atlantic does not appreciably diverge. albeit abating somewhat over the UK  This would portend changeable but warming up from current conditions Given that there are some significant differences this still has to be resolved

But Sidney is sniffing the coffee

[nick sussex]

Some encouraging signs that the pattern might be about to change course .

Pressure rising to the nw and some troughing trying to head se into Scandi . We need to lose the Russian high which is being a pain .

Earlier the models still seem to be trying to resolve what happens with the low moving se and its interaction with shortwave energy to the ne of the UK .

 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

here's my thoughts...... mild/normal value blip IS coming...but look at the profile......cold is soon to follow.  We are entering / entered imo extra ordinary times........

 

BFTP

[Jordan S]

I'll just focus on the shorter term for now turning drier for England and Wales tonight but with showery pieces of rain in places courtesy of that weakening frontal system that has given many parts of England a very wet 12-24hrs also some sleet and snow too on mostly higher ground of Wales with more in the way of showery rain for the east later. This "drier" interlude for England in particular doesn't last too long by tomorrow afternoon a frontal wave pushes into southeast England from the near continent bringing a spell of fairly heavy rain during tomorrow evening for southern and southeast England the rain perhaps lighter for the Midlands and East anglia with 5-10mm in places this then moves west into Wales but gradually fizzles out throughout tomorrow night.  Click on the images to enlarge:

Arpege.. 

Monday was looking dry for most of the UK but the Arpege and Icon are now showing low pressure to the east of the UK pushing more rain heavy in places into Eastern England then into the Midlands during Monday afternoon/evening giving another very wet night to much of England perhaps fringing into Wales too, elsewhere mostly dry..

Icon..

Timings and the position of the rain differs a little between Arpege and Icon but that's to be expected 4 days out. This isn't nailed on of course.. Especially given the Gfs not going for this and keeping it mostly dry for all of the country on Monday night with just a few showers (wintry on hills) with the rain much further east into the North sea.

Gfs.. 

Worth keeping a close eye on this.. Will be a couple of days I suspect until we know which outcome will likely be correct.. I'll keep you updated as will others I'm sure.

Edited November 14, 2019 by jordan smith