Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[shaky]

Can already tell the gfs 12z is goin the wrong way at 78 hours!!less amplified in the atlantic and low in the continent slightly further north and west!!so game over as far as im concerned for any improvements between 120 and 144 hours!!

[frosty ground]

15 minutes ago, shaky said:

Can already tell the gfs 12z is goin the wrong way at 78 hours!!less amplified in the atlantic and low in the continent slightly further north and west!!so game over as far as im concerned for any improvements between 120 and 144 hours!!

Has there been anything recently that would indicate mid term improvements in the output other than the usual slight differences in the near term.

[Ali1977]

Day 7 is similar in our neck of the woods that the 06z, but diff over West USA/Canada with higher heights building north. Not sure if that’ll help or hinder further into FI!! 

[Ali1977]

21 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Has there been anything recently that would indicate mid term improvements in the output other than the usual slight differences in the near term.

Poss HP setting up above U.K. around day 10, needs to be towards Iceland or higher to bring a cold feed our way!!

[booferking]

Gfs 12z having a good go late on again.

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Gfs 12z having a good go late on again.

Jet is blocking any CAA

[booferking]

Just now, frosty ground said:

Jet is blocking any CAA

Looks good to me high building going to smash the Jet

[booferking]

Yep jet smashed going south not strong enough this year solar min..

[ICE COLD]

This could turn into a stonker.

[frosty ground]

That's a better Jet profile with the blocking high to our north

[Ali1977]

This would be a fantastic trend , potential of something great again. Where the hell has that PV vanished too from its usual November spot

[Ali1977]

Day 12 and a good Greeny high there, let’s hope for a good set of ENS 

 

And here is the proper cold. Or is that gonna fail too!! Either way, looking forward to the ENS, feeling positive for some day 10 boom charts 

Edited November 14, 2019 by Ali1977

[sundog]

The last third of November can can be prone sometimes to getting cold snaps/spells, hopefully this is one of those yrs  . 2005 for example. 

Wasn't there some guy years ago  who had dates or periods  during the year most likely to get cold snaps  etc.  I think the last third of November was one of those periods  .

[feb1991blizzard]

14 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

This could turn into a stonker.

 

It very nearly has, the frigid air wont reach us on this run but it would put the continent in the brutal category which could be useful down the line if another bite at the cherry occurs.

[SLEETY]

Hope this is the new trend with the greenland high wanting to control the weather,it was their in the previous run ,although amazing how the u.k. misses the very cold air ,just.Hope the reality is something better in that respect.

[Ali1977]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It very nearly has, the frigid air wont reach us on this run but it would put the continent in the brutal category which could be useful down the line if another bite at the cherry occurs.

This Setup could easily come sooner, which I’m sure some ENS will show.

Day 5 on the control looks good 

Edited November 14, 2019 by Ali1977

[Ali1977]

Day 5 mean, do we have some changes coming for the better - this is sliderville 

[booferking]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Day 5 mean, do we have some changes coming for the better - this is sliderville 

If you go through the ens the op is the worst one the majority are better than op at 120hr short term improvements most likely i would say..

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, booferking said:

If you go through the ens the op is the worst one the majority are better than op at 120hr short term improvements most likely i would say..

Yup, at 144 there’s plenty of these. This isn’t FI so not impossible. Still need ECM to flip before getting too excited  though 

There are still a fair few with the op type set up but this at day 7 would be lovely 

Edited November 14, 2019 by Ali1977

[shaky]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Day 5 mean, do we have some changes coming for the better - this is sliderville 

But the mean and control have been looking good and slidey for the last few runs yet the op does not want to know at all!!at some point those ensembles shall go with the op especially cos the op is run at higher reso!!hope am wrong but the op just does not wana back down!!

[booferking]

Number 7 no messing about straight to Greenland here we go.

If Carlsberg did runs.

Edited November 14, 2019 by booferking

[Tim Bland]

30 minutes ago, sundog said:

Wasn't there some guy years ago  who had dates or periods  during the year most likely to get cold snaps  etc.  I think the last third of November was one of those periods  .

Weather: Alexander Buchan

WWW.WEATHERCAST.CO.UK

---

The hoarse meteorologist

Compared to 24hrs ago things are going in the right direction. I expect some boom op runs  tomorrow

 

[knocker]

The ext GEFS has the Aleutian/Arctic vortex lobe continuing to gain ground and thus has the European ridge pressured south into eastern Greenland, But there is an extension of the vortex south of this with an energy conduit running around the west N. American ridge to link with the main westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard All of this results in the latter diverging in mid Atlantic with one arm continuing on to the trough south of the UK

Once again a tricky looking surface analysis with systems stalling against the block Lets see if NOAA and the EPS agree

Edited November 14, 2019 by knocker

[Snowyowl9]

Not again surely.UKMO looks very interesting.

[booferking]

More of the same from ecm early on seen enough.