Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[Mike Poole]

Zonal wind chart for the GFS 0z:

We have a winner, reversal on one member, don't think it's one of the GEFS maybe one of the GEM ensemble.

[knocker]

The ext EPS is very much in the same ball park as the GEFS so no further waffle from me required

Edited November 13, 2019 by knocker

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Zonal wind chart for the GFS 0z:

We have a winner, reversal on one member, don't think it's one of the GEFS maybe one of the GEM ensemble.

It is CMC / GEM ensemble member 5  

[Frosty.]

The longer term Ecm 12z ensemble mean continues to suggest / imply further unsettled weather and also gradually turning milder with an atlantic flow becoming established during the last third of november..aye, winter is coming..

Edited November 13, 2019 by JON SNOW

[Tim Bland]

In the immediate term...snow reported in South Wales now and Euro4 shows high grounds such as chilterns seeing some in the early hours. Snow reported as low as 100m currently  

[knocker]

32 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ext EPS is very much in the same ball park as the GEFS so no further waffle from me required

NOAA singing from the same hymn sheet

[ALL ABOARD]

Just a quick one. 

Currently sitting in my house with 2-3cm of snow outside. Missed by everyone? All this with uppers of minus 2 showing on the 850hpa charts.

 

Moving forward the NH pattern is still in a favourable position for us and if the trop and strat disconnect continues and the zonal wind speed slows down we could have further surprises. 

 

 

[Don]

4 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

turning milder with an atlantic flow becoming established during the last third of november.

 

Anyone getting a sense of deja vu?!

[Mapantz]

Can we please keep pictures in your regional threads. Thanks. 

[booferking]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Wasn't aware of that, preety good going for Ireland given its more westerly position, under what are not very cold uppers.. proof you don't need cold uppers to deliver snow at this time of year. Must be the evaporative cooling effect, and the fact there is a slack airstream. Where was the picture taken ? height above sea level.

Indeed last Saturday saw similar conditions in parts of lowland Wales.

Reasonably low land first image is portarlington Ireland 70m asl evaporative cooling working wonders to be fair to Met. Eireann they forecast it well.

[Jordan S]

1 hour ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Just a quick one. 

Currently sitting in my house with 2-3cm of snow outside. Missed by everyone? All this with uppers of minus 2 showing on the 850hpa charts.

That's not true there was always a risk for snow to fall to lower areas in South wales particularly in heavier precipitation its modelled very well on tonight's Ecm some snow is possible on higher ground of western parts later evaporative cooling coming into effect. 

Ecm.. 

Edited November 13, 2019 by jordan smith

[shaky]

35 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

That's not true there was always a risk for snow to fall to lower areas in South wales particularly in heavier precipitation its modelled very well on tonight's Ecm some snow is possible on higher ground of western parts later evaporative cooling coming into effect. 

Ecm.. 

Hmmm interesting that shows parts of the midlands getting into the act tomorrow aswell!could see a few snowfall reports around the west mids!!

[Jordan S]

7 minutes ago, shaky said:

Hmmm interesting that shows parts of the midlands getting into the act tomorrow aswell!could see a few snowfall reports around the west mids!!

Perhaps but mostly on higher ground but woundn't want to rule out something more wintry at times to lower levels  just don't take snow forecasts too literally atm. But interesting 24 hours ahead.

Edited November 13, 2019 by jordan smith

[shaky]

14 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Perhaps but mostly on higher ground but woundn't want to rule out something more wintry at times to lower levels  just don't take snow forecasts too literally atm. But interesting 24 hours ahead.

Is it possible to give me a link to those charts please!

[SMU]

A sizeable swing to the UKMO from GfS 18z plunges Scotland into Further cold with more slide on the low & minimal phasing

-4c line down to the coast mon & very Cold for Scotland.

[Mapantz]

1 hour ago, shaky said:

Is it possible to give me a link to those charts please!

https://www.tameteo.com/modeles/en-royaume+uni-ecmwf-94.htm

 

[Jordan S]

1 hour ago, shaky said:

Is it possible to give me a link to those charts please!

The animation I added into it myself the chart itself though is from tameteo.com @Mapantz has put a link to it but glad you like the look of it. 

Edited November 13, 2019 by jordan smith

[Jordan S]

Precipitation type radar shows some sleet appearing further south east within this front probably on higher ground if that's accurate then it doesn't suprise me. 

[Ali1977]

The control vs op at 138, I know which one is prefer 

 

And the mean is way better than the op

Edited November 13, 2019 by Ali1977

[Allseasons-Si]

This at 144 form the control run

southerly tracking low much more prominent than the 12z.

 

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

The control vs op at 138, I know which one is prefer 

Was just bout to post it , the control is very good . Also some other very good ens . It’s looking all very uncertain. 

[Ali1977]

By 162 some good ENS, are there our best case scenario I wonder

[ICE COLD]

Only gone through half of the ens around the T160 mark and some are looking good . 

[Allseasons-Si]

Whoa!!!

look at the latest NAO compared to last nights

AO still neg too

tonight v last nights.

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

unfortunately ensembles promised much but ended badly,