Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[Jordan S]

35 minutes ago, Danielvn said:

They are great aren't they. I think that comes from choosing to look at a reliable timeframe and giving a forecast regardless of the weather that is being forecast as opposed to only posting when the outputs match what he wants. This thread is much better for having Knocker in it

Can I just point out that there are other users who do what you are stating as well its not wise to single one person out when there are some other very good poster's as well as @knocker.

Edited November 13, 2019 by jordan smith

[northwestsnow]

Quick one from me, EC 00z looks interesting strat wise...a split is evident at 10 Hpa...(or close to at least).

[Chesil View]

36 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Not the best (if you like snow) charts for the run-up to Christmas:

   

Those charts are a month before Christmas. Hardly the run up to the festive season.

[Jordan S]

Bit of uncertainty with the exact position of tonights/tomorrow's weather front posting Gfs and Netwx models as an example to highlight the difference albeit small but makes a big difference locally.. Gfs has trended slightly further north having the worst of the rain through the flood effected areas and Wales similar to the Icon's output too with quite heavy snow on higher ground of Wales but Netwx as does the Arpege and Gem keep it stalled across South Wales and South Midlands area with less of an impact for the flood effected areas it needs watching closely it is likely to be very heavy at times. (I personally wouldn't be suprised if an amber warning is issued given how sensitive river levels are in places with 40-60mm potentially falling locally). That's just my view and certainly doesn't mean there will be. But anyway here's the two charts..

Netwx.. 

GFS... 

Edited November 13, 2019 by jordan smith

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Those charts are a month before Christmas. Hardly the run up to the festive season.

That's quite true...But, were they charts showing gale-force easterlies with -12C T850s, I'm quite sure that quite a few 'someones' would be raving about them, already...?

[IDO]

We can see from the D6 chart how tamed the tPV is:

Subtle changes in forcing from the various players can lead to shifts in the dynamics, which we have seen played out in various GFS op runs lately. However, none have really lead a cold flow to the UK, increasing the likelihood is a milder flow.

The tPV could be annihilated if we could get some sort of meridional flow, however the NH profile looks to be flat in the medium term. By D12 we still have the Euro/Russian High and that is a winter killer as we know so no improvements likely in this current pattern:

[weirpig]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Quick one from me, EC 00z looks interesting strat wise...a split is evident at 10 Hpa...(or close to at least).

Is there really?.  Interesting  have you any Links or Pic please?.  Edit  found  Ignore post  ta

Edited November 13, 2019 by weirpig

[Tim Bland]

End of This 06z GFS run kills the Russian high at least. If we could see heights building toward our North east further on we could be looking at a better pattern? 

[IDO]

JFF after D12 we see a Pacific wave develop and this enables the Euro High to build north with WAA to establish less of a wedge block to a more Rossby wave synoptic...

...driving some of that cold south into E.Europe. On this occasion the Pacific heights are transitory, but will gift a wedge of heights into the Arctic fields, that may mix it up a bit? All great for the long game no doubt.

[knocker]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Quick one from me, EC 00z looks interesting strat wise...a split is evident at 10 Hpa...(or close to at least).

At 30mb

 

[weirpig]

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

At 30mb

 

Thanks for that.  A quick question  regarding the Strat  does the position of the warming make any difference to the outcome   or are there other variables at play?  For example the above  shows the warming and a  near split  above Alaska/Canada    Would the subsequent vorticies   then behave different  if the warming were above Greenland for example?.

[frosty ground]

1 hour ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Those charts are a month before Christmas. Hardly the run up to the festive season.

Ed already has his tree up

[Ali1977]

Here’s the GEFS mean at 144, now I know what happens later on with that dartboard low scuppering things, but it won’t take much of a change for things to quickly make a turn for the better for coldies. 

[Methuselah]

21 minutes ago, knocker said:

At 30mb

 

It's Skeletor!

[northwestsnow]

42 minutes ago, knocker said:

At 30mb

 

My mistake, cheers knocker..

[Methuselah]

Well, if, like me, you are a fan of extremes, today's GEFS 06Z ensembles hold-out little hope...?

   

   

[Ali1977]

Here’s the Greenland pressure charts from the ENS - it looks like HP will be around there for the next 2 weeks which should be good news for coldies. Depending on how the dart board low reacts/slides when over the U.K. could have quite big FI consequences.

Sadly at the minute the charts are showing LP over the U.K. to hang around, not good for saturation levels and probably the worst that could happen with regards stopping any colder weather heading our way. 

Edited November 13, 2019 by Ali1977

[Stonethecrows]

3 hours ago, jordan smith said:

Can I just point out that there are other users who do what you are stating as well its not wise to single one person out when there are some other very good poster's as well as @knocker.

Yes. As good as Knocker's posts are, there are many on here quite capable of producing reliable timeframe forcasts ( which is what the vast majority of knockers posts are ) but instead chose to focus their attention on FI and the hunt for cold. Nothing wrong at all with either but the former is always going to get more success due to the unpredictability of the latter.

[knocker]

2 hours ago, weirpig said:

Thanks for that.  A quick question  regarding the Strat  does the position of the warming make any difference to the outcome   or are there other variables at play?  For example the above  shows the warming and a  near split  above Alaska/Canada    Would the subsequent vorticies   then behave different  if the warming were above Greenland for example?.

Well I'm not that knowledgeable when it comes to the strat but yes and the position of the vortices would be different and if there is srat/trop connection this would be important regarding our weather

Edited November 13, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

Strewth there must be a lot going on on this front,as just experiencing heavy rain with hail down here

Edited November 13, 2019 by knocker

[bluearmy]

That strat isn’t a split ????

It’s displaced to the Asian side with trough axis to Iceland 

Edited November 13, 2019 by bluearmy

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That strat isn’t split ????

 

Who said it was ????

[knocker]

In view of the heavy rain on this front a quick run through until 0600

[bluearmy]

13 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Who said it was ????

A tweet on the strat thread and a post earlier on this one today 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

That strat isn’t a split ????

It’s displaced to the Asian side with trough axis to Iceland 

Quite right - here is an example of a split - Note the 2 daughter vortices are cut off.

Edited November 13, 2019 by feb1991blizzard