Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[knocker]

According to the gfs the evolution over Monday/Tuesday remains quite complicated, A lot of eastbound energy drives the intense low and associated front east on Monday and temporarily boosts the low to our south east and drives it north as it hits the block in the east

And by Tuesday the whole caboodle has merged into a complex area of low pressure covering the eastern Atlantic and the Uk

Edited November 13, 2019 by knocker

[tinybill]

for the flooded  areas next week looking not nice one  bit

[knocker]

The 5-10 GEFS also indicates low pressure dominating the eastern Atlantic with a north west feed so continuing unsettled but warming up a tad

In the ext period a rather complex adjustment of the vortex lobe/European ridge arrangement with the latter now ridging into eastern Greenland which relegates the strong westerlies even further south. The European high cell remains elusively too far east

 

[knocker]

It's amazing how far south this Arctic plunge penetrates The sounding for Brownsville, Texas

[Chesil View]

After showing some tempting scenarios earlier the models seem to be packing away and going for a milder pattern in the medium term for now. 

Much as I would have loved a repeat of late nov/Dec 2010. In reality though would I rather see cold and snow arrive mid November or mid December?. Then mid December would get my vote.

Edited November 13, 2019 by Broadmayne blizzard

[knocker]

Different detail but a similar evolution from the ecm next week

[JoeShmoe]

Have to say Knocker your mid range forecasts are nearly always spot on so kudos to you and please don’t stop posting as you’ve become a very reliable source (far better than the media anyway!)

[Jordan S]

Morning Gfs this morning still continues the wet theme and "milder"outlook for next week but with much more rain shown.. Quite heavy rain still shown to push into east anglia and southeast England during Friday night then moving slowly west through to central England not good news for flooded areas it does then fizzle out by the end of Saturday mostly dry elsewhere.

Sunday looking showery atm although many places should be dry if the gfs is correct but some heavy showers particularly in the west with hill snow for Scotland.

A low that was modelled to push into the east of England for Monday night next week has changed on this update and pushed further to the east although still may clip Scotland.But Monday night sees another frontal system pushing into the southwest bringing a spell of heavy rain for most it is fairly slow moving but not stationary like tonight's/tomorrow's system will likely be. Although may be slow to push north away from northern England where there may be some hill snow for a time..

elsewhere turning drier again.. Also Turning a little milder.. It isn't long though before more rain pushes into the southwest perhaps bringing a very wet night Tuesday night/Wednesday for more southern parts of the UK. 

This then clears but barely 12 hours later More heavy rain pushes into the west and southwest this shown to be very heavy locally.. this effecting more western areas but much of England and Wales will see more rain if the Gfs is correct.. 

Scotland and Northern Ireland faring better the rain on Wednesday shown to reach into Scotland and Northern Ireland later though.. Anyway The extended range (unreliable time frame) continues to throw frequent heavy bands of rain across the country particularly for England and Wales still..the very wet spell goes on for the next week and possibly more according to the Gfs.

GFS ensembles still continue the wet theme temps go towards average too then perhaps milder than average beyond but that's unreliable and subject to change.. 

10 day accumulated gfs chart based on this run.. 

Edited November 13, 2019 by jordan smith

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

Have to say Knocker your mid range forecasts are nearly always spot on so kudos to you and please don’t stop posting as you’ve become a very reliable source (far better than the media anyway!)

Dont tell him that !  next We’ll get piccies of Sidney and the like  !

anyway, the amplification is changing with the movement of the vortex to the Asian side with the spv looking to be displaced nearer scrussia than the far side of Siberia .....

too early to pin the tails on the donkeys as yet but the normal response in the Atlantic is for the jet to become more active (temporarily) whilst the tpv  is on the move .....

 

[knocker]

Well the news on the grapevine is that Sidney is arranging a family barby for Xmas

Back to more important matters and the fax update for midday tomorrow, Hopefully the rain not getting too far north

[shaky]

How often do you see a low pressure come striaght up from the med into the uk!!!cant remember the last time that happened but looks like happening this time around 120 to  144 hours!!just imagine how snowy it could have been if cold air was embedded over the uk!!

[Jordan S]

4 minutes ago, shaky said:

How often do you see a low pressure come striaght up from the med into the uk!!!cant remember the last time that happened but looks like happening this time around 120 to  144 hours!!just imagine how snowy it could have been if cold air was embedded over the uk!!

That low may just stay to the east of us. 

[markw2680]

11 minutes ago, shaky said:

How often do you see a low pressure come striaght up from the med into the uk!!!cant remember the last time that happened but looks like happening this time around 120 to  144 hours!!just imagine how snowy it could have been if cold air was embedded over the uk!!

I’m sure something similar happened in feb 91 but was very cold at that time and got loads of snow from it although I was only 11 at the time.

plenty of time for the models to improve longer term. I do feel sorry for all those flooded people it just seems to keep on coming

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 0z operational shows sw'ly zephyrs appearing in low res..aye, winter is coming!!

Edited November 13, 2019 by JON SNOW

[knocker]

Little to add vis the ext EPS. Slight adjustments to the vortex lobe/ridge combo and the Euro high cell still elusively too far east

[jules216]

35 minutes ago, shaky said:

How often do you see a low pressure come striaght up from the med into the uk!!!cant remember the last time that happened but looks like happening this time around 120 to  144 hours!!just imagine how snowy it could have been if cold air was embedded over the uk!!

This November will go down as very wet indeed for some UK locations because of this southerly tracking jet stream. You are not alone with the rain though, my region in Slovakia has received some 60+mm over last 24hrs, totaling 230mm so far for November at some stations. Now that is a lot

[bluearmy]

Incidentally, If anyone is wondering, the eps cluster with low uppers headed west was limited to one suite ....

[booferking]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Incidentally, If anyone is wondering, the eps cluster with low uppers headed west was limited to one suite ....

What percentage was the cluster please?

[Ali1977]

Well, it looks like the chance of a decent cold spell late Nov is slowing ebbing away which is a shame - the PV still hasn’t got its act together though but that massive LP over the U.K. next week seems to have scuppered most decent wedges/WAA/blocking etc. 

Can we get a late swing back towards blocking, and more importantly a drier spell , my fingers are certainly crossed !! 

Still a strat disconnect and few other positive things for coldies, we just need to ignore what the professionals and their long range are forecasting
Waiting for the next chase now, and the massive dump of snow in the french alps tomorrow

 

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Incidentally, If anyone is wondering, the eps cluster with low uppers headed west was limited to one suite ....

Any still showing the potential easterly next week? As per a few of the GFS ENS of late? 

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Incidentally, If anyone is wondering, the eps cluster with low uppers headed west was limited to one suite ....

Somehow i thought that would be the case after the brief flertation with it on the GEFS suite.

[knocker]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

 

Still a strat disconnect and few other positive things for coldies, we just need to ignore what the professionals and their long range are forecasting
 

 

Always best but as a safeguard retaining the right to reconsider this hasty decision if they suddenly switch to cold and snow

[Ali1977]

19 minutes ago, knocker said:

Always best but as a safeguard retaining the right to reconsider this hasty decision if they suddenly switch to cold and snow

Obviously, I thought that was in the small print when a member of this forum .

 

[Danielvn]

2 hours ago, JoeShmoe said:

Have to say Knocker your mid range forecasts are nearly always spot on so kudos to you and please don’t stop posting as you’ve become a very reliable source (far better than the media anyway!)

They are great aren't they. I think that comes from choosing to look at a reliable timeframe and giving a forecast regardless of the weather that is being forecast as opposed to only posting when the outputs match what he wants. This thread is much better for having Knocker in it

[Methuselah]

Not the best (if you like snow) charts for the run-up to Christmas: