Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Complicated looking by day 3, and I’d be surprised if FI is much beyond that - I’d also be surprised if we don’t have some good beasts showing in the ENS by day 10!! 
 

yes it looked ok with the ridging etc early on then the low ballooned!!

[knocker]

The gfs still has the complex energy distribution alluded too this morning with not dissimilar results. This is long way from being anywhere near being nailed down

[SMU]

Minimal time to post this eve however I would love the GEM 12z to be correct-

Currently out 150 looking great...

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Minimal time to post this eve however I would love the GEM 12z to be correct-

Currently out 150 looking great...

Yes Steve Gem is very nice on the eye . 

[Ali1977]

The op at 144 has a low over France which scuppers everything, the ENS mean hasn’t. Therefore there’s a chance that The Op is a huge outlier at such close range !! 

 

By day 8 we are still game on cold as per the GEM Steve Murr posted. Happy days.

Edited November 12, 2019 by Ali1977

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Minimal time to post this eve however I would love the GEM 12z to be correct-

Currently out 150 looking great...

EC will follow

we hope...

TBH UKMO and GFS are quite different at 144 so who knows...

[Ali1977]

BIG UPGRADE IN ENS . Few day 8s below, not worth looking much further but add a few days to these and it would be v cold I’d think.

Edited November 12, 2019 by Ali1977

[Mucka]

The good news with GFS is that the ensembles are much keener to get rid of the Russian high either by having it retrogress some or haaing lower heights push down from the N.

That high anomaly is just in the worse possible place if you want drier and/or colder so the sooner it either makes itself useful by moving NW or is gone the better..

 

[fromey]

33 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Highly regarded in the art of long range forecaseting.

That’s good to hear! Lets see where they go from here.

[Weathizard]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

BIG UPGRADE IN ENS . Few day 8s below, not worth looking much further but add a few days to these and it would be v cold I’d think.

Problem being Ali, even if we get lucky looking at the 850s around to our east it’s hard to see any way we can pull in anything sufficient for a sustained cold flow and most of these charts are still cold rain. The 850 mean over Nordic countries shows the problem, struggling to get to -6 and 8 even there.

[Duane S.]

I am keeping tabs on the innocuous looking ridging that will take place at around D5. The GEM OP makes slightly more of it than the GFS OP and interacts with the Russian high. Doesn't come to much with the little Nowegian fella piling in thereafter and helping to cut off any cold from the NE, but it really wouldn't take much of an adjustment to set up a great winter set up for us here in the UK.

Dismiss the next few weeks at your own peril...

Edited November 12, 2019 by s4lancia

[Ali1977]

The pick of the day 10s, way in FI though. Main thing to glean is that we still have a chance of something v good later this month, don’t worry about 850s on those just yet - if the set up is correct the cold 850s will come!! If it doesn’t happen it’s been good viewing and for Nov, this forum has been busy (well I have  waffling mostly)

 

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

The good news with GFS is that the ensembles are much keener to get rid of the Russian high either by having it retrogress some or haaing lower heights push down from the N.

I remember the good old days when it was the euro high / slug that the majority wanted rid of..how times have changed!!!......

[Kentspur]

18 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yes Steve Gem is very nice on the eye . 

I've noticed a few times the ECM often seems more akin to GEM than GFS I wonder why that is?

[Ali1977]

7 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Problem being Ali, even if we get lucky looking at the 850s around to our east it’s hard to see any way we can pull in anything sufficient for a sustained cold flow and most of these charts are still cold rain. The 850 mean over Nordic countries shows the problem, struggling to get to -6 and 8 even there.

Agreed initially, there will be some very cold FIs on the ENS though.

INFACT HAS ANYONE SEEN THE FI ENS - BOOM on some, not extreme FI neither 

There are others

Edited November 12, 2019 by Ali1977

[jules216]

To all my fellow Irish followers who want to see some white stuff tomorrow evening, head to west Wicklow high ground,perhaps Blessington at 200 m.asl might be sufficient enough altitude and if lucky there could be up to 5CM of wet snow probably large flakes as well

[knocker]

The ext GEFS mean anomaly still has the Euro ridge doing battle with the Aleutian/Arctic vortex resulting in much of a void south east of Greenland as the energy exiting the eastern seaboard runs south of this to the trough SSW of the UK  This results in the UK once again being in no mans land with a very slack gradient

[Methuselah]

Another GFS run (along with the seasonal models) has us heading for a +NAO setup...? And, IMO, so long as there's warm air being advected NW'ward into Europe, I can't see anything changing...Though (perish the thought!) the models might all be wrong!

   

In the meantime, let's all hope that the ensembles contain something exciting?

[Ali1977]

8 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ext GEFS mean anomaly still has the Euro ridge doing battle with the Aleutian/Arctic vortex resulting in much of a void south east of Greenland as the energy exiting the eastern seaboard runs south of this to the trough SSW of the UK  This results in the UK once again being in no mans land with a very slack gradient

I see the 850 temp mean anomaly has the U.K. a few C below average but the 2m temp is average, is this normal? 
And for those thinking there’s no cold air to our east, I have also noticed that each time knocker pushes these charts out Scandinavia gets colder and colder, so should we get a NE flow there could be some cold air close by!! 

Edited November 12, 2019 by Ali1977

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm liking the 12z ensembles... We have a fair few cold ones and again it's being highlighted that there is a large cold pool potentially building to the NE. Just imagine an early SSW with it falling in the right place this time!! Froffing at the chops just thinking about it... I'm liking these signs, I maybe wide of the mark, but I feel this year could be delevering early!! 

[Tim Bland]

Can’t get the image of Matt “Frothing at the chops” out of my mind now  

There is almost always some tasty ensembles as we hit the colder months but unless the higher resolution ops start showing them ... my chops are dry! Good news re the GEM, let’s hope the ECM looks similar and the GFS op looks like some of those ensembles soon!

[nick sussex]

What’s complicating matters is the behaviour of the Euro troughing . We don’t want that being sucked nw as it engages the disrupting low to the west .

 

[knocker]

35 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I see the 850 temp mean anomaly has the U.K. a few C below average but the 2m temp is average, is this normal? 
And for those thinking there’s no cold air to our east, I have also noticed that each time knocker pushes these charts out Scandinavia gets colder and colder, so should we get a NE flow there could be some cold air close by!! 

I wouldn't say a few degrees but yes there is not always a simple correlation between the two as has been discussed many times. On the other hand too much should not read into these charts vis the detail as they are basically an attempt to get the pattern nailed down

As to the final comment, pretty much down to the orientation of the ridge and the surface high

 

Edited November 12, 2019 by knocker

[bluearmy]

ec looks consistent at day 6 with previous run …….. It usually does 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

ec looks consistent at day 6 with previous run …….. It usually does 

The low in the North sea is a real pain..