Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[swfc]

46 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Those bloody Siberian heights just keep getting stronger and stronger so we just end up with pivoting low pressure systems and further high rain fall totals and will feel raw as well, not exactly mild.  The worst kind of weather.

 

Hemispherically it’s interesting but this pattern is a tough one to get out of, hopefully it pays off in the end and doesn’t just do the usual and sink and send a cold blast into Greece. Needless to say not a fan of heights to our east in ‘winter’ months, seen it too many times before and doesn’t normally end well. 

Yes I'd agree with your post.the blocking is forcing the lows on a se track across the UK sadly.terrible outlook in our area tbh.id gladly take a uk-attlantic block with eastern Europe taking all the weather.its often said many times these areas of intense pressure can retrogress north West and bring sustained cold .it looks to be there for a good while yet so wet and cool it is I guess.its not a zonal set up and I guess a full reset me keep the rain and flooding risk.heres hoping for a dry spell ??just to add it's been called a Siberian high,it's nots actually look at its location ATM in regard to bringing the classic synoptics

Edited November 12, 2019 by swfc

[Yarmy]

31 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Has anyone got the Dec and Jan versions of this? 

I don't, but in the Strat thread @coldwinter has posted a tweet from the same GloSea run* showing a potential SSW for early Dec. However, it also shows a strong trop vortex at 500hPa and below for the same time period. Of course, it takes time for the effects of an SSW to percolate down to the surface, if they do at all (or indeed, if the SSW even happens). 

*The +NAO-osaurus Rex showing on the GloSea forecast for DJF is based on model runs through October. 

[booferking]

How depressing we are jinxed all this blocking and run after run produces floods of rain

3 days later and that low still sits parked over us.

Edited November 12, 2019 by booferking

[Frosty.]

The longer term Ecm 0z ensemble mean suggests increasingly unsettled and somewhat milder / less cool.

 

[booferking]

To sum up gfs 06z would be very wet.

[swfc]

Wow the GFS 6z.even with the usuall caveats it looks grim.the heights earlier on are not there and the following output is dire.hopefully some improvement later on??

[northwestsnow]

Just now, booferking said:

To sum up gfs 06z would be very wet.

Very poor pattern setting up.

6Z showing exactly the kind of set up i hate to see.

[Jordan S]

That's a very wet 10 day chart from the Gfs this morning for Wales and the west of the UK..

Most of that accumulated rainfall for the West is from this front.. 8/9 days away so not to be taken too seriously. 

Edited November 12, 2019 by jordan smith

[IDO]

You could not get a worse D12 chart if we sat down and plotted the GFS 06z ourselves:

Taking into account what comes before we can suggest that the current setup is simply too far gone to be useful for cold or dry weather for the UK. An awful setup with no potential for the foreseeable. The GFS seems to now have settled on this option, the worst case scenario!

[swfc]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Very poor pattern setting up.

6Z showing exactly the kind of set up i hate to see.

Yes it could be a long slog going forward NW.those heights continue to push into most of Europe except the UK,you couldn't write could ya!!!

[booferking]

Hopefully the 12z runs can bring back some hope that is fading very quickly in here and rightly so.

[Jordan S]

17 minutes ago, IDO said:

You could not get a worse D12 chart if we sat down and plotted the GFS 06z ourselves:

Taking into account what comes before we can suggest that the current setup is simply too far gone to be useful for cold or dry weather for the UK. An awful setup with no potential for the foreseeable. The GFS seems to now have settled on this option, the worst case scenario!

Its the 12th November! There is plenty of time to get good synoptics cold snow etc it's just a few gfs runs I wouldn't be suprised if it trended quite cold again albeit still wet. Even if very mild south-westerlies or anything standard for UK does develop.. A flip to cold blocked conditions very quickly can and have happened a few times in the past take November 2009 for example.. Not saying the outcome will be like that at all but Anything after day ten don't take too seriously and certainly don't bin hopes based on that!

Edited November 12, 2019 by jordan smith

[jules216]

10 minutes ago, IDO said:

You could not get a worse D12 chart if we sat down and plotted the GFS 06z ourselves:

Taking into account what comes before we can suggest that the current setup is simply too far gone to be useful for cold or dry weather for the UK. An awful setup with no potential for the foreseeable. The GFS seems to now have settled on this option, the worst case scenario!

Yes, I was banging on this eastern European high drum now for almost a month  posting quite regularly in connection with all cold being blocked of, yet most of the focus here is on what happens west and NAO/AO combo. What is going to be the case this November, that AO will average out to be very negative,yet Europe overall will end up very mild and wet, apart from UK which will be little below average and wet. No too dissimilar with summer pattern, raging -NAO yet record breaking warmth in Europe.  

[swfc]

20 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Yes, I was banging on this eastern European high drum now for almost a month  posting quite regularly in connection with all cold being blocked of, yet most of the focus here is on what happens west and NAO/AO combo. What is going to be the case this November, that AO will average out to be very negative,yet Europe overall will end up very mild and wet, apart from UK which will be little below average and wet. No too dissimilar with summer pattern, raging -NAO yet record breaking warmth in Europe.  

Good post.yes I think folk generally think northern blocking is always going to come to fruition given the negative readings.if we could turn the northern hemisphere upside down we'd be in clover!!

Edited November 12, 2019 by swfc

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Brilliant post from s4lancia earlier, worthy of a mention in the queen's honours list this year. No point me getting drawn into a will it won't it debate, or its looking bad scenario... Cause I never win while the 6z is running, and tbh I don't have much time for it anyway!! I will give a little mention to the 0Z...there are quite a few runs keeping us relatively cold, and with a cold pool to the NE tantalisingly close!!! The mean also remained on the cool side. Its not a bad set up still if you ask me..... Bar the awful rainfall amounts.... 

[Chesil View]

Meanwhile amidst all the weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth. We have our first enemble member breaching the minus 10 barrier.

[IDO]

19 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Yes, I was banging on this eastern European high drum now for almost a month  posting quite regularly in connection with all cold being blocked of, yet most of the focus here is on what happens west and NAO/AO combo. What is going to be the case this November, that AO will average out to be very negative,yet Europe overall will end up very mild and wet, apart from UK which will be little below average and wet. No too dissimilar with summer pattern, raging -NAO yet record breaking warmth in Europe.  

Agree, it has been forecast for quite some time a train of HP cells moving west to east from the Pacific, inbound the Euro region, maintaining that Euro wave of heights that ebb and flow but disengages any cold air from the colder sources. Usual caveats but even late in the GFS run we see that pattern:

We can stall that flow if the Pacific amplifies, thus allowing some wedges of heights to pop to higher latitudes, but otherwise that train of HP cells maintain the status quo of Euro height anomalies. Not a good place to be, west of the station, with the stalling trough over the UK for the short-medium term.

Thankfully only November and there are likely other drivers that will maybe address this pattern, even the dreaded tPV taking hold may be better for the UK than this disappointing synoptic.

[feb1991blizzard]

Number 12 for me please.

Or a 13.

 

Or a 17

Edited November 12, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[shaky]

Isshhh we are in huge trouble a week from now!!with that scandi high in an unfavourable position that low is gona be parked west of us for ages just bringing in mild southerlies and copious amounts of rain!!!lets hope for some changes on the 12zs!!

[feb1991blizzard]

Or a 19 or 7

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Or a deformed dog with half a leg and his  head on the wrong way around.

[Jordan S]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Or a deformed dog with half a leg and his  head on the wrong way around.

Looks more like an elephant to me. Anyway Ecm looking mild close to day 10 remaining unsettled too.

GFS ensembles show a wide variation with longer term upper air temperatures but the trend line goes towards average and stays there for the rest of the time frame.

Edited November 12, 2019 by jordan smith

[Ali1977]

12 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Looks more like an elephant to me. Anyway Ecm looking mild close to day 10 remaining unsettled too.

GFS ensembles show a wide variation with longer term upper air temperatures but the trend line goes towards average and stays there for the rest of the time frame.

Nice to see a few really cold runs in there, hoping for the Op to swing the other way on the 12z but slowly that is looking less likely. The Alps are in for a pasting on Thurs so atleast that’s nice to see..

[Jordan S]

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Nice to see a few really cold runs in there, hoping for the Op to swing the other way on the 12z but slowly that is looking less likely. The Alps are in for a pasting on Thurs so atleast that’s nice to see..

Well the Gfs flipped mild yesterday so it may flip cold again.. And indeed the alps really are..

48hr and 102hr snow accumulation forecast..  I know these are overestimated. 

[Weathizard]

Siberian heights can be very stubborn, the problem is it just seems to keep getting stronger and stronger, knowing our luck when it finally does scarper it will set up shop over Europe to kill off some more time! 

One thing is for sure @Summer Sun must be absolutely crestfallen at the current and recent state of affairs, haven’t seen him posting in a while which is always a sign the weather is dreadful