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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

A very wet Gfs update indeed let's start with tomorrow night.. Rain pushes into the southwest then slowly moves into southern parts of England through tomorrow night into early Thursday morning.. Then parks itself through South Wales the south Midlands and southern parts of East anglia for a time before moving further to the north then west as winds back to an Easterly direction snow is possible on higher ground of Wales and the west Midlands but mostly rain to low levels currently mostly dry for Scotland and Northern Ireland with just a few showers wintry on the hills. :oldgood:

00_42_preciptype_old.thumb.png.80031eaaf11a090a927b127ea5b292ba.png

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The low slips south to leave a window of drier weather but chilly too as the air comes in from the northeast then a weather front drifting in from the near continent looks like bringing more heavy slow moving rain into the south east of England during Friday afternoon accompanied by quite brisk northeastly winds making it feel raw  the rain then shown to slowly push northwest during Friday night into Saturday morning but then easing for most of the southeast although the front itself stays pretty active for central parts where they really do not need any more rainfall then drier after but chilly..

00_87_preciptype_old.thumb.png.52fdee2c8568320f37af9b93f45fdf48.png

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Then the extended Gfs for next week and beyond really does throw large quantities of rainfall across the country at frequent intervals particularly for southern and western parts exacerbating any flooding.. winds are then shown to turn to a milder southerly then southwesterly too not before some more hill snow for Scotland from a separate system moving north up the north sea fringing into Scotland but this is likely to change given the time frame involved..

GFS.. 18th

00_162_preciptype_old.thumb.png.7b772c23004f2d609176ff2c711fbd16.png

19th

00_171_preciptype_old.thumb.png.a1b4288c8bc5eb387ea38da40826b6ab.png

Then extended range.. 21st..

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22nd..

00_243_preciptype_old.thumb.png.26c7f708ce3ded39333c4641954dfe53.png

Finally 23rd..

00_267_preciptype_old.thumb.png.902bcfcd3b65fe7ffc977dbe3a6cae4a.png

GFS 10 day accumulated rainfall chart.. Very wet for many. 

1035517824_precipaccum10dayukhd(11).thumb.png.97f39cb70dde69b7f12e21d4fcdf5613.png

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm has similar theme to the gfs Sunday > Tuesday with different detail. It does re-energize the low to the south east but tracks it north over Denmark. Still cold with temps below average

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-4078400.thumb.png.7579267fea6f4104d8700d7354a9f5da.pngecmwf-deterministic-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-4208000.thumb.png.39bec2b60efaa3dbcb41c3186352fb12.png

index.thumb.png.9be6644960c9baec2b2be990599f4f40.png156.thumb.png.cea51295f792edf2a3edc3708156ca6c.png180.thumb.png.95bbd0fa26a2811c3f5e68c9252127a0.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

ECM looks quite zonal as we go into next week with heights draining away to our North and the cold uppers starting to vanish. What with the glosea giving a poorish outlook last night its all a bit sobering this morning. Let's hope it's a short reset with heights rebuilding to our North by months end..

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Aye, a pretty horrendous-looking outlook judging by the 00Z: starts bad, turns bad, ends bad!:shok:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

And it's not even a outlier!

prmslLeicestershire.png   t850Leicestershire.png

image.thumb.png.4e007a1db5273f42d7a3c1c814dccd6b.png   prcpLeicestershire.png

Have yourselves a good day, folks.

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
23 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

 Aye, a pretty horrendous-looking outlook judging by the 00Z: starts bad, turns bad, ends bad!:shok:

You mean starts mediocre, turns worse then ends awful.. :yahoo:For cold lovers anyway. But I'm sure there will be many twist and turns from the model output to be honest I think the GFS is being progressive with lowering heights to the north for next week onwards.. The signal for frequent rain remains whether its from slow moving rain belts being slowed by continued blocking to the north and east such as Jma was showing anyway yesterday midday.. 

1677973964_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_168(4).thumb.jpg.9a2cf9238b5d771fe25c6a95322e98b6.jpg

1190098880_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_192(5).thumb.jpg.44c3665ce9e0d2507779aa74ccae1267.jpg

or by numerous rainbelts from the west.. Like the GFS shows.. but the overall synoptic pattern not nailed on by any means I'm sure.  

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
32 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

ECM looks quite zonal as we go into next week with heights draining away to our North and the cold uppers starting to vanish. What with the glosea giving a poorish outlook last night its all a bit sobering this morning. Let's hope it's a short reset with heights rebuilding to our North by months end..

It's not zonal, it's blocked. Low pressure is stalling nearby and moving NW.

The problem is the blocking is not favourable. 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
28 minutes ago, pdiddy said:

Must admit I don't understand some of the posts here.  Doesn't look zonal to me and the pattern remains of great interest.  Certainly wet for the foreseeable as lows remain slow moving with the potential for more rain.  Heights over Scandi remain and this is where I am focusing attention.

The GFS is not zonal per se, but may as well be. The cold remains elusive, with any flow not close to the UK. So we are left with the ridiculously sublime, a good synoptic with wedges to our north and undercutting lows, but simply no cold, so remaining wet, cool and windy. These patterns tend to hang around and ignoring the lack of cold, a predominantly wet outlook is not going to be good, but without a reset I for one am unable to see cold knocking on our door in the medium term, not even scraps:

D9-D16>>>anim_jko5.gif  anim_kqc2.gif

After D16 we may see the Russian High edge east so maybe the Azores High will push north, so we will see what December brings.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ext EPS also has a slight adjustment of the orientation of the European ridge which seems to push the Arctic squeeze a tad further east, Otherwise the diverging of the strong westerly upper flow would appear to be too far east to greatly improve the weather over the UK although the surface analysis remains tricky albeit temps nearer the average. We could do with Euro surface high shifting a bit west

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4726400.thumb.png.b3468877538d670cddfb9047a14e14a1.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-4726400.thumb.png.41e5141701c4703fa3bab00056a15627.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
31 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

I see absolutely nothing to sway me away from my current positivity. Certainly not a 3 monthly seasonal chart. There is nothing zonal whatsoever about this.

This could quite possibly mean a continuation of these awful wet and cool conditions of late with no proper cold spell ever developing. Quite feasible. More likely though, this regime of us staying on the cool side of a southerly fracking jet will eventually pay dividends. 

I do not see any real evidence of this ending any time soon, the GEFS pressure charts continue to show below average heights right across western central Eu. We are currently about as far away from stagnant Bartlett/Euro High conditions as imaginable. And yes that means more and more rain in all likelihood unfortunately but it really won’t take many tweaks to turn things from wet and miserable to snow and happiness for many. 

I feel bad for those who are of the naturally glass half empty persuasion, so much of the fun element of all this must be lost always looking for what CAN go wrong. Sure, with the U.K. climate that stance may end up looking more like pragmatism and realism but seriously, where’s the fun in that? Hey ho.

I know it gets banded around every year but there is a different feel to things this early season. Quite possibly aided and abetted by the solar minimum, the jet behaviour is key to why we should remain optimistic, even if cautiously so...

I would just like to add the fun element for some of us is the actually meteorology, not chasing moonbeams

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
4 minutes ago, knocker said:

I would just like to add the fun element for some of us is the actually meteorology, not chasing moonbeams

The fun element isn’t chasing “pretty little beams of light” it’s chasing “ mahoooooosive piles of white” and whilst the NH profile has blocking on display we will keep looking for the cards to fall in our favour.  

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

People talking about a zonal reset.

No thanks,once you get a strong zonal pattern it can last for weeks and weeks, and the winter can be over before it ends

Their no sign of that,we still have the .Southerly jet with us on the Cold side of it.

I note the gfs was toying with the Greenland.Some of the coldest weather and fiercest snowstorms in this country  throughout the centuries,have come about because of the Greenland high.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Things look to be moving in the wrong direction for coldies IMO.

image.thumb.png.53bd7d7c2885847f4eef9bde31a94231.png

If only the azores high could have extended another couple of hundred miles north at 144 then its game on, instead, the same old story for us,the ridge gets flattened and things go down hill pretty quickly..

image.thumb.png.1b2afcd6a7630c419a02327388edaa94.png

And we end up with rubbish wet and windy weather with a poorly aligned block to the NE.

Hoping others have a different more positive take on things, if the models change in that crucial 120-144 timeframe then perhaps the outlook will be totally different,who knows..

 

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Posted
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford

There's a lot of gnashing of teeth and pulling of hair this morning....

open question - give the current set up - what would we regard as a reliable time frame model wise?

 

TIA

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, V for Very Cold said:

There's a lot of gnashing of teeth and pulling of hair this morning....

open question - give the current set up - what would we regard as a reliable time frame model wise?

 

TIA

I would say 96-144 is crucial in this set up, the chart i posted is 144 and that is crucial to the outlook, if the azores eidge gets far enough north then its a completely different ball game.

Of course i am a mere amateur so please take my opinion with a box full of salt, a box load of salt i am hoping we will need to clear the roads of ice and snow during winter

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

The mean still looks better than the op with regards the Atlantic being more slidey and heights into Greenland, so I’m discounting it until the GFS comes out. Also of note it the difference between the op and mean in Siberia with that big dartboard low , with such a difference you’d have to think that the op is by far an outlier in that area at day 10, so why presume it’s correct elsewhere .

01883A7A-1A29-442A-8925-36B047A3EE6B.png

8A49FD89-5AA5-4AAF-987E-9738AFC59261.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
1 hour ago, jordan smith said:

You mean starts mediocre, turns worse then ends awful.. :yahoo:For cold lovers anyway. But I'm sure there will be many twist and turns from the model output to be honest I think the GFS is being progressive with lowering heights to the north for next week onwards.. 

 

Wow if this is an awful end we are clearly being spoilt too early this year! Some years  we are left desperate for a synoptic like this just before the start of winter! 

EEFF92D2-316F-45BA-B930-88E2E2A387C2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Those bloody Siberian heights just keep getting stronger and stronger so we just end up with pivoting low pressure systems and further high rain fall totals and will feel raw as well, not exactly mild.  The worst kind of weather.

 

Hemispherically it’s interesting but this pattern is a tough one to get out of, hopefully it pays off in the end and doesn’t just do the usual and sink and send a cold blast into Greece. Needless to say not a fan of heights to our east in ‘winter’ months, seen it too many times before and doesn’t normally end well. 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

If the GLOSEA winter forecast is correct and hugely +AO and NAO , but the Feb forecast below by Gloasea is correct -  you’d think for the mean to be correct we’d need to be in full blown +NAO and AO by v early December. With that you would expect to start seeing a swing in that direction now on FI charts - personally I just don’t buy it or atleast I hope they have got it very wrong!! 

51E24005-544B-4C3F-9E86-7B894CDCEBCE.png
 

Has anyone got the Dec and Jan versions of this? 
The EC Monthly doesn’t paint a great picture for coldies into Dec!! 

518388BB-B356-46DC-8412-FFA7C01734F8.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Well while some are bemoaning the lack of cold weather on the horizon  im currently thawing  in my Victorian built office space.  Whilst i agree  nothing bone chillingly cold as of yet  but seasonal it is.  And with   many back ground signals in our favour  a weak Vortex  and with sounding of a possible SSW in or around late December   things  looking not to bad.   Of course the pattern at present is conjucive to copious amounts of rainfall   but alas that is the great British climate.   Onwards and upwards 

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
26 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Wow if this is an awful end we are clearly being spoilt too early this year! Some years  we are left desperate for a synoptic like this just before the start of winter! 

EEFF92D2-316F-45BA-B930-88E2E2A387C2.png

I was replying to the gfs output this morning for the UK temperatures and in response to another users comment I certainly think there are interesting synoptics atm. :oldgood:

Edited by jordan smith
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