Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

^^

+NAO as we head into Dec...

Yes, hopefully week 3 will do so much damage though that we will bare fruit later in winter.

[Mr Frost]

Evening all!

All this chat about cold spells in the future sounds fantastic...some of us are in one at the moment.  (Had to get the Christmas tree up  due to the snow-line at modest levels here. (400 meters)

It has been cold for days on end now with morning/night frosts - average November daytime temperature for here is 9c...been recording 2c to 3c below that for much of November. (This Wednesday has a daytime high of 4c! I am very close to the West Coast which makes it even more remarkable living at sea level)

This cold spell has no end in sight currently with further frosts and snowfall to modest levels. (Latest ECM)

Roll on Summer! 

Have a good night everyone! 

[Met4Cast]

 

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

^^

+NAO as we head into Dec...

Worth noting the +NAO pattern has been pushed back to the end of week 1/beginning of week 2 of December on the latest EC Weekly, previously it was +NAO from the beginning of week one, so a small subtle positive. 

Edited November 11, 2019 by Mapantz
removed hidden quote

[MattStoke]

Doesn’t the latest Glosea update come out tonight?

[Mapantz]

Play nice please folks, and keep to the topic in hand! Ta. 

[feb1991blizzard]

12 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Evening all!

All this chat about cold spells in the future sounds fantastic...some of us are in one at the moment.  (Had to get the Christmas tree up  due to the snow-line at modest levels here. (400 meters)
 

400 meters may be very modest levels when comparing to world geography and topography but it is a tiny tiny tiny % of people in the UK that live above 400m, i am trying to look for the highest possible location ready for when i can afford to move, Flash was the only village i could find anywhere near here with that altitude and they wont let prperty unless you have a history of living in that area.

[Mike Poole]

9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Doesn’t the latest Glosea update come out tonight?

I was expecting it today to be honest. What will it say? Two things, in my opinion...  A. High probability of a wet mild winter, B. It will be wrong.  

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

400 meters may be very modest levels when comparing to world geography and topography but it is a tiny tiny tiny % of people in the UK that live above 400m, i am trying to look for the highest possible location ready for when i can afford to move, Flash was the only village i could find anywhere near here with that altitude and they wont let prperty unless you have a history of living in that area.

Or your 2nd name is Gordon..... 

The heights to our North east are extremely encouraging on the pub run... 
 

[damianslaw]

16 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

 

Worth noting the +NAO pattern has been pushed back to the end of week 1/beginning of week 2 of December on the latest EC Weekly, previously it was +NAO from the beginning of week one, so a small subtle positive. 

The NAO is just a reflection of the position and strength of pressure profile over N atlantlic, a positive NAO means lower heights generally closer to the Pole in the vicinity of the north atlantic. We are currently in a slightly positive NAO and have been all November so far, yet we are having consistently below average temperatures, and will do so for the foreseeable.

 

[Mike Poole]

9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Or your 2nd name is Gordon..... 

The heights to our North east are extremely encouraging on the pub run... 
 

Aye, but there is precious little cold air to tap into there:

Good to see you back posting, @karlos1983The winter team is coming together for probably the most uncertain, interesting run up to winter I can remember, bring it on!!

 

[Met4Cast]

The new and updated GLOSEA makes for grim viewing. 

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The new and updated GLOSEA makes for grim viewing. 

Where did you get that from, the MO site hasn't updated?

But I did say it would be awful - I think the modelling is missing something, and has been for some months to be honest.  Will comment further when I've seen all the charts.

Edited November 11, 2019 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The new and updated GLOSEA makes for grim viewing. 

I really wouldn't worry about the winter as a whole based on that as things can soon change for the back end of the winter but for December now i think the writing is on the wall - caveat being unless other models like the ECM seasonal / JMA change very soon, and we will need to see a better outcome for  Jan/Feb/March this time next month although i have a feeling we will do just that.

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The new and updated GLOSEA makes for grim viewing. 

Doesn't that chart mean higher pressure though so we could finally see a gradual drying out process from December after several weeks of very wet weather? 

[Met4Cast]

8 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Doesn't that chart mean higher pressure though so we could finally see a gradual drying out process from December after several weeks of very wet weather? 

Not really - It's a three month anomaly chart so can't gleam much detail from it really. We could have an incredibly wet December and then have high pressure sat just to the south of the UK Jan/Feb and still get the chart above.

[Mike Poole]

24 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Doesn't that chart mean higher pressure though so we could finally see a gradual drying out process from December after several weeks of very wet weather? 

It is actually quite difficult to draw conclusions from that chart as it is averaged over many realisations (with different starting conditions) and over three full months.

And if, like me, you believe that these seasonal models are struggling, in particular with the solar minimum, then it should be taken with a pinch of salt anyway.  Look at the prediction made about the Autumn by this model - the most likely outcome didn't happen, in fact the least likely outcome happened.  

And I haven't even looked at the detail yet!!  (I will comment on the GloSea5 update when I've seen all the charts tomorrow!)

Edited November 11, 2019 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I really wouldn't worry about the winter as a whole based on that as things can soon change for the back end of the winter but for December now i think the writing is on the wall - caveat being unless other models like the ECM seasonal / JMA change very soon, and we will need to see a better outcome for  Jan/Feb/March this time next month although i have a feeling we will do just that.

How can the writing be on the wall for a time span of around 7 weeks.... From now through till the end of December!! I can't think of a model in the world that can give a true reflection of conditions beyond 7-10 day's, let alone.... 7-10 weeks! If my memory serves me correct, this time last year, the picture being painted was for largely cold and blocked scenarios.... And Im pretty sure that December came out as an above average month! I wouldn't be at all surprised if the pattern we are seeing now persists into the next month!! There is a lot to play for.... Write  a month off that is 3 weeks from starting at your peril... 

[BlueHedgehog074]

For a number of the cold and snow enthusiasts in here, this likely would have been more satisfying.

Though clearly the long range Winter charts aren’t a complete guarantee of what could really happen. At the same time, there’s always a chance that those, such as the Glosea season model, could turn out to be accurate (or at least quite close to the mark). Would be ideal not to get too hung up on them though. 

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

How can the writing be on the wall for a time span of around 7 weeks.... From now through till the end of December!! I can't think of a model in the world that can give a true reflection of conditions beyond 7-10 day's, let alone.... 7-10 weeks! If my memory serves me correct, this time last year, the picture being painted was for largely cold and blocked scenarios.... And Im pretty sure that December came out as an above average month! I wouldn't be at all surprised if the pattern we are seeing now persists into the next month!! There is a lot to play for.... Write  a month off that is 3 weeks from starting at your peril... 

Because i have never ever seen a situation where the leading long range models are all writing off Dec at this range - let alone seen one where they are all writing off Dec and we see a cold blocked Dec.

[Mapantz]

A few posts getting hidden with more straying off-topic.

If you want to moan, write off Winter or say there's all to play for, please do so in the moans/banter/chat thread instead of clogging this informative one up.

Thanks.

Edited November 11, 2019 by Mapantz

[damianslaw]

I take very little notice nowadays of any long range modelling.. best just sticking to the reliable timeframe and glean from that what may happen in the semi-reliable, 2-3 weeks + max. These seasonal models average out everything anyway and can't tell you what the weather will actually do on the ground. 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Because i have never ever seen a situation where the leading long range models are all writing off Dec at this range - let alone seen one where they are all writing off Dec and we see a cold blocked Dec.

Have to say the more positive noises today are a bit of a suprise to me.There looks to be gathering momentum for a +NAO regime taking hold longer term, nothing concrete but i'm seeing a trend to heights building across S Europe by  around day 9 onwards...

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

I take very little notice nowadays of any long range modelling.. best just sticking to the reliable timeframe and glean from that what may happen in the semi-reliable, 2-3 weeks + max. These seasonal models average out everything anyway and can't tell you what the weather will actually do on the ground. 

Yes but if there are huge discrepancies intra-seasonally, i can bet my bottom dollar which half is more zonal and which half is blocked...........

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Have to say the more positive noises today are a bit of a suprise to me.There looks to be gathering momentum for a +NAO regime taking hold longer term, nothing concrete but i'm seeing a trend to heights building across S Europe by  around day 9 onwards...

 

I think we really do need to see that scandi high hold and hopefully combined with a ridge into the pole from the pacific side, as an SSW pre-cursor pattern.

[Allseasons-Si]

-8's to -12's coming in from Scandi at day ten on the control run

who's to say this would be correct nor the ones with downgrades today,no one knows at this range

as for the long range models,i wouldn't trust my house on them and i am sure no one else would either

just sit back and relax,it's all slow moving up above

and the de-built ens shows this in terms of wind direction..

have a good evening folks.