Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[weirpig]

5 minutes ago, Cymro said:

Oh that’s ok then it is only wet in ‘Wales’ after all!? Wales has suffered some of the worst flooding the past few weeks and more rain is certainly not welcome! Thankfully it is subject to change let’s hope for better/dryer runs for the whole of the British Isles! This forum’s English centricity is sometimes very frustrating. 

Not sure what the issue is  his point was that most of the rainfall was for wales in the reliable  the rest of the rainfall is out of the reliable  therefore is subject to change    for rainfall uk wide  it's still not nailed and could change      why people get easily offended is beyond me 

[knocker]

No surprises with the ext GEFS mean anomaly this evening

The European high pressure ridging anomalously into the eastern Arctic adjacent to the Aleutian/vortex lobe with a trough extension running Canada > Greenland > UK. A strong westerly upper flow exiting NA south of this across the Atlantic but diverging, courtesy of the aforementioned ridge and thus one arm then tending to run south of the UK. Again that leaves the det runs to sort a tricky surface analysis with temps around average

[phil nw.]

GFS mean showing the ebbing away of the Canadian pv sector. Notice the lowest heights heading towards the Siberian side.

This is part of the pattern needed if we are to get cold from the east or north east down the line. 

Now where are those Greenland /Iceland hts. 

[jules216]

30 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Hehe I can almost taste your ongoing frustration, but I really do think this is a positive long term investment. A retrogression/mid Atlantic heights surge looks possible as November passes - some very pleasing northern blocking might possibly be the product...and this may help widen the pressure gradient between Greenland and Scandinavia as we head into December and the Atlantic reasserts control...gold dust as per Feb 18 for strat forcing. In general terms, if we want the wave 2 induced split that has come to be recognised as a precondition cursor for some of the most severe winter spells in Western Europe, then we need a European element to the attack. 

With luck the sacrifice of your late autumn cold will not be in vain....what was it Gandalf said to Aragorn? “Look to my coming, at first light, on the fifth day. At dawn, look to the East.....” . Might take 5 fortnights from now, however!

LOL @CatacolI should be happy actually I am saving a lot of money not having to heat up the house in to which I moved in 7 weeks ago. So for another 2 weeks it looks like only a moderate heating demand. Looking at outputs like GFS or ECMWF it looks like a very late start to skiing season in Slovakia, I dont complain much as I only do cross country skiing and for that there is never enough snow until January anyway. There still can be a surprise turn of events if a favourable short wave develops in eastern Russia or Easter Scandi, why not? Some GEFS 12Z have similar ideas. Perhaps the reason why I am getting impatient are imaginations of waking up and looking out from terrace to snowy scenery, some October sunsets were spectacular and also a bit of frost was nice to see a week ago back. Just for stats I know a lot of UK got rain so far in Autumn, my station has 110mm so far in November and another 44mm are forecast for tomorrow evening. Most of that rain is coming from being on the other side of the fronts that bring rain to UK, we are on the mild side of the low, you on the cold side, yet nearly as much rain as you

[Downburst]

47 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Rainfall totals by day 10, with the exception of the M4 corridor and central wales its not overly extreme.

Most of the rain is pre day 4 for for wales

Says a lot about the position of the polar front— north west Scotland and Northern Ireland driest.

[markw2680]

Too much chopping and changing so no consistency at all so why worry? It’s not Even the middle of November yet and we are in a pretty good position for this time of year going forward, it could be a whole lot worse. I’d say by the time the weekend comes the models will be looking a whole lot different to how they are now.

for once there’s plenty of time time just yet

[shaky]

Ecm at 120 hours looks like gfs!!!could be a better run!!

[northwestsnow]

EC is indeed an improvement on the 00z run...

The Atlantic still looks very angry at day seven however ..

[SMU]

Lovely ECM 168 ( Euros on a par at 144 ) which is always a good thing..

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Lovely ECM 168 ( Euros on a par at 144 ) which is always a good thing..

Now lets see that low slide away or disrupt in the atlantic!!

[Jordan S]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

If we can't have -17C, I guess we'll have to put up with +17C!

   

What can go wrong does go wrong?

The GFS ensembles show how much of a difference the operational is compared to last night's run.. Massive difference highlights uncertainty ofcourse

Midnight run last night.. 

12z today.. 

A wetter ensembles update too.

Edited November 11, 2019 by jordan smith

[feb1991blizzard]

Its all about to go wrong now though at 192 - knew it - its that dreaded stationary shortwave off the coast of Norway - its struck again.

[SMU]

Very cold with some Sleet / snow across the UK...

Wait to you see the 850's

[Jordan S]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its all about to go wrong now though at 192 - knew it - its that dreaded stationary shortwave off the coast of Norway - its struck again.

But that's 192 hours away so wouldn't get hung up on the details just yet. 

[northwestsnow]

VERY cold EC det this evening..

Temps well below avg by day 8 ...

[Stuie]

192 850`s...

Edit: Sorry for that 1 liner, was responding to Steve`s post. Thought it was time to come out of hibernation, hi peeps!

 

Edited November 11, 2019 by Stuie W

[knocker]

A quick glance at the weekend onwards with the ecm

Saturday sees the beginning of the next round of implication as an extension of the vortex drops into the Atlantic but not a bad day although a waving front is approaching from the west/. And as can be seem the wave develops into a low in Biscay with associated front across the south on Sunday

Meanwhile away to the west rapid cyclogenisis has once again been taking place amplifying the downstream ridge and, also once again, relegating the UK trough south

 

 

 

Edited November 11, 2019 by knocker

[SMU]

Very Cold surface well & truly embedded on ECM - Very frosty!

 

[Frosty.]

Indeed, don't any coldies get hung up about 850's!!..the Ecm 12z operational  becomes cold at the surface, nuff said!!!!!!!

I'm temporarily reactionless again.

Edited November 11, 2019 by JON SNOW

[legritter]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its all about to go wrong now though at 192 - knew it - its that dreaded stationary shortwave off the coast of Norway - its struck again.

At 192 hrs time for changing on next run ,sit back relax STellas and sausage baps all round .But very interesting times at present even before winter begins .

[January Snowstorm]

Indeed the UK is almost developing it's own little cold pool.

Extraordinary stuff for so early in the season!

[knocker]

The 5-10 mean anomaly is in the same ball park I expect to see later in the EPS ext period

[damianslaw]

A cold unsettled few days ahead, with longwave trough digging deep through the UK and southwards, which allows for height rises over the mid atlantic, at the same time heights look primed to stay quite high over N Scandi, which then shuts the gate on the atlantic, as a merging of heights to our north takes place - though not especially robust, enough to create a cold pool, under preety cold air by this time next week - if the models are to believed. Lots of uncertainty thereafter, but with a very southerly tracking jetstream profile not expected to change anytime soon, I don't see an easy route to westerlies, despite what looks like some very cold air about to spill into the north atlantic and perhaps invigorate the jet.

My hunch is that we see low pressure anchored down to the SW, which might throw up some temporary warmer uppers from off the continent but with heights set to remain quite high to the north, low heights will sink again into europe and probably its then just more of the same as we are having now.

The effects will allow for warm air advection into the Pole to our east, with the UK remaining on the colder side of the jet - the pattern is  conducive one to heights eventually migrating westwards, as we see cold air advection invade from the back door (west russia).. perhaps/eventually.. if we see core of PV migrate to siberia.. 

Edited November 11, 2019 by damianslaw

[feb1991blizzard]

ECM 192.

[Jordan S]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM 192.

Possibly more heavy rain it's backed to an extent by the other models although some keep that off shore. Gfs midday run certainly is a very wet update particularly for Western and southwestern areas. 

GFS accumulated rainfall.. 

Day 5.. 120hr

Day 10..240hr

Day 16.. 384hr

Although half of this is unreliable time frame with most of the accumulated rainfall at day 16 from day 10 onwards so likely will not pan out like that exactly but that would close November off as a very wet month indeed for most anyway.. We shall see. 

Edited November 11, 2019 by jordan smith