Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[shaky]

23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes shaky...

Det out of kilter, got to hope its not the start of a trend ...

Hopefully GFS 6z does not follow it.

Yup nerve wrecking 10 hours coming up!!

[feb1991blizzard]

47 minutes ago, booferking said:

Is that temp average countrywide for the next 5 days cause Met Eireann had Ireland 2-3c below normal for the week ahead??

Those charts are showing below average for Ireland, not quite 2-3c uniformly but looks a pretty decent reflection of what might happen to me.

[Captain Shortwave]

Slight irony in the output this morning. The GFS quickly clears the trough over the U.K. from day 6 northeast wards, whilst the ECM is much slower and in the end the next system phases with the residual cold pool. This could be one of those times where the GFS’s so-called bias might be allowing it to produce a much more favourable result for cold as the upstream High can build much further north than the ECM.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Slight irony in the output this morning. The GFS quickly clears the trough over the U.K. from day 6 northeast wards, whilst the ECM is much slower and in the end the next system phases with the residual cold pool. This could be one of those times where the GFS’s so-called bias might be allowing it to produce a much more favourable result for cold as the upstream High can build much further north than the ECM.

EC det looks out of kilter within its 00z suite to me...

Of course it could have sniffed out the correct,(and wholly) unfortunate path for those of us wanting a change from this relentless wet pattern.

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC det looks out of kilter within its 00z suite to me...

Of course it could have sniffed out the correct,(and wholly) unfortunate path for those of us wanting a change from this relentless wet pattern.

Yes, mind you undercutting / sliders if you got them in the wrong place could be permanently wet, eventually you might get the desired result in terms of wintry PPN, but it would probably be wet snow this time of the year and melt so add to water levels.

[knocker]

The ext EPS has the European ridge amplifying into the eastern Arctic adjacent to the vortex lobe which extends across northern Canada and a trough south east into the Atlantic. Under which runs a strong westerly upper flow across the Atlantic until it hits the block in th east. Which, as oft been said, leaves a tricky surface analysis with temps hovering around the average

And if we transpose the squeeze skywards

[snowking]

The usual (probably quite dull by now) advice from me

We should not be too quick to dismiss a single deterministic run, even if it is out of kilter with its own suite (caveat: I have not yet seen the EPS suite), particularly given the higher resolution of the deterministic run in trying to resolve some delicate balances over the atlantic. We simply don’t know at this stage where to judge this run and will need to wait for further runs.

My second and definitely tiresome piece of advice is to be very cautious when looking beyond day 5 in the Greenland locale and particularly with regards to any suggestion of increased heights (those lovely greens and yellows on the H500 charts) - we have seen season after season a bias towards increasing heights too much in this area beyond day 5, only for this to correct itself the closer to T+0 we get.

At some point, like a stopped clock, the models will sniff out one of these Greenland height rises correctly (and I do fancy that to be this year incidentally), but for now I would urge caution before we drive ourselves towards an early season meltdown. With Brexit coming Nick might struggle to get the Prozac over the border.

 

[Jordan S]

1 hour ago, booferking said:

Is that temp average countrywide for the next 5 days cause Met Eireann had Ireland 2-3c below normal for the week ahead??

I think it's the temperature anomaly for days 9-14.

[summer blizzard]

Gfs0z is utterly stunning with near zero daily means likely from days 11-16.

Euro is a concern.

[booferking]

5 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

I think it's the temperature anomaly for days 9-14.

Yes sorry my mistake on the date but it doesn't look like average temps to me it looks below mostly nationwide especially so for Ireland.

[Jordan S]

5 minutes ago, booferking said:

Yes sorry my mistake on the date but it doesn't look like average temps to me it looks below mostly nationwide especially so for Ireland.

Only a slight deviation from the norm for most but slightly below for Ireland. 

[ArHu3]

15 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Gfs0z is utterly stunning with near zero daily means likely from days 11-16.

Euro is a concern.

Just our luck finally 10 days of (north) easterlies being modelled and now we have no cold pool east

[Jordan S]

1 hour ago, JON SNOW said:

Morning Gang, it's Monday morning and I'm here to accentuate the positives..and the windchill!!!.. yesterday's Gfs 0z operational hinted at this outcome for late Nov and this mornings 0z follows through on that potential..and then some, we get a double whammy of cold shots, from the east and then the north!!..snow, ice, frosts..you name it, just embrace these lovely charts until the 6z!!!!!!!!!!!!❄

Definitely looks good @JON SNOW   overall the pattern looks very interesting for coldies. No doubt the 6z will flip to a scenario such as this one..

Just kidding  Gem has a rather messy look to it but pretty cold nevertheless though still quite wet.. 

GFS ensembles show that midnight run was a cold outlier but you know.. We'll see

Edited November 11, 2019 by jordan smith

[nick sussex]

Just caught up with the outputs .

GFS has upped the stakes and shows a route to something colder , as we see a more favourable Euro trough set up and better aligned high to the north .

The ECM in a word . The mother of all shortwave phasing tragedies !

[jules216]

Morning all, I would say its interesting to monitor the next evolution of possible blocking pattern around hours 168 to 240, at the moment my line of thinking is similar to @snowking and would easily find this ECMWF as being plausible outcome against GFS cookoo land charts.Even the blocking around Greenland does not have to mean anything else then cold UK based low pressure with miserable cold rain, the situation to the east us is not changing fast and we might find ourselves under Sceuro ridge with any reasonable cold source so far away. I dont know but have a slight desire for a reset in atmospheric circulation as there is a sense of dejavu with cut of low and more high pressure in continent.

[Methuselah]

GFS 00Z at T+306 is certainly a stonker -- given the still-warm North Sea, thundersnow might even be on the menu...

   

The op's evolution also has support from the ensembles...at least until the far-reaches of FI!

   

   

Nice charts to wake-up to!

[shaky]

Icon 06z looks really good at 120 hours!!bigger wedge of heights between iceland and norway!!

[Ali1977]

Not as amplified this run By 174, and doesn’t look like the Atlantic systems will slide like the 00z. See what happens but I’m pretty sure it won’t be as good as the earlier run

 

To caveat that however, the Siberian end looks better aligned should this go well over the next few frames. 
 

192 definitely not without interest and thankfully nothing like the ECM

Edited November 11, 2019 by Ali1977

[shaky]

Gfs 06z does not follow ecm at 144 and 168 hours!!!

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs 06z does not follow ecm at 144 and 168 hours!!!

Million miles better than EC 00Z.

[swfc]

0zand 6z gfs look chalk and cheese 168 hrs mark.sadly it looksa stronger low

Edited November 11, 2019 by swfc

[coldwinter]

Its going to be another stonker in FI. Its fine margins getting the shortwaves to behave and ensuring enough amplification to link the siberian high with the Atlantic high

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Million miles better than EC 00Z.

Mate miles better than ecm and actually looks colder than gfs 00z at 204 hours!!im afraid ecm might have got this wrong but i wait till the 12z!!if gfs and ukmo show the same later than a expect the ecm to back down!

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

0zand 6z gfs look chalk and cheese 168 hrs mark.sadly it looksa stronger low

GFS 6z is a good run...

Nothing like the awful EC!!

[swfc]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

GFS 6z is a good run...

Nothing like the awful EC!!

Sorry I clicked on wrong run