Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[Chesil View]

JFF but FI on the hrs 0z is rather lovely this morning memories of late November nine years ago come to mind.

[knocker]

The North Atlantic 850mb temp profile and surface analysis for midnight. Note the cold plunge over North America, which, apart of some possible record lows, will impact downstream this week

Heavy rain from the occlusion is currently crossing the country but should clear to the east this morning to be followed by frequent squally showers in the very gusty W/NW wind. which could reach gale force in western coastal regions. But the complication is the wave forming on the front over Scotland so the rain could well persist here

The wave development continues apace overnight with a continuation of coastal gales and showers but a belt of more continuous rain in northern regions courtesy of another occlusion trailing back to the surface low east of Greenland

By Tuesday the low is over the North Sea as the trough re-orientates under pressure from the west resulting in a day of sunshine and showers but a belt of more persistent rain tracking south, courtesy of the aforementioned occlusion. Very windy with gales in the west.

Over Tuesday night and though Wednesday the low and associated fronts does clear to the east so a day of sunny intervals and the odd shower but a strong jet (keep in mind the opening comments) is driving more systems east and rain arrives over N. Ireland and the south west by 1800

But this approaching system is actually driven south by developments upstream as rapid cyclogenenisis is taking place which boosts the jet and amplifies the subtropical high

The rain and showers should move away by Friday as the ridge tracks east so a much better day all round.

[knocker]

The ridge continues to move east across the UK so probably not a bad weekend albeit a waving front is forced east which may bring some rain to western regions.

Becoming unsettled again through the beginning of the week as systems track along the trough 'corridor'

Edited November 11, 2019 by knocker

[West is Best]

Good morning all. Long time no chat.

What interesting synoptics these are. It very much 'feels like' winter at the moment, and there's a persistent pattern for blocking. The 0z GFS hints at a developing Greenland High, but we've also seen regular sight of blocking to the north, around Svalbard, as well as Siberia. We continue to remain on the northern side of the Polar Front Jet, and this allows northerly and easterly patterns as well as blustery and cold north-westerlies. I know you all know this, I'm writing it for my own benefit too

Mean CET is currently -0.6Cc below the 1961-1990 average and that's only going to continue heading down judging by current runs.

Does a cold November pressage anything for winter proper? Sadly not. But it's pretty raw out there at times.

[Duane S.]

Lovely GFS 00Z run to wake up to this morning.

The general theme of the pattern staying backed westwards continues into the foreseeable.

An optimist may even say that with this southerly jet, displaced Azores High and subsequently low heights meandering around central west EU, it is only a matter of patience and time before we eventually profit?

[knocker]

The ext GEFS this morning much along expected lines. The European ridge amplifying into the eastern Arctic with a diffuse Aleutian/Canada vortex on the other side with associated trough aligned across southern Greenland.> eastern Atlantic. Thus still some indications of retrogression of the pattern leaving us with the complications of the surface analysis. temps around average

[Chesil View]

17 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Lovely GFS 00Z run to wake up to this morning.

The general theme of the pattern staying backed westwards continues into the foreseeable.

An optimist may even say that with this southerly jet, displaced Azores High and subsequently low heights meandering around central west EU, it is only a matter of patience and time before we eventually profit?

Hi S4L

The GFS 0z op is not on its own in the enembles either . Interesting times.

[northwestsnow]

GFS 00z is very nice longer term this morning..

EC looks flatter at 168 though...

[northwestsnow]

Yup..

Plonks the low in just about the worst position possible at day 8 

GFS for day 8 is chalk and cheese..

Edited November 11, 2019 by northwestsnow

[knocker]

Interesting temp gradient across the cold front, courtesy of the Arctic plunge

[bluearmy]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yup..

Plonks the low in just about the worst position possible at day 8 

GFS for day 8 is chalk and cheese..

That’s a very messy day 7/8 due to where it leaves the chunk of low heights day 6/7 to our nne..... I would be a bit sceptical of this run post day 6, just as I am the gfs op with its newfound passion for undercutting with few complications ..... 

Edited November 11, 2019 by bluearmy

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

That’s a very messy day 7 due to where it leaves the chunk of low heights day 6 to our nne..... I would be a bit sceptical of this run post day 6, just as I am the gfs op with its newfound passion for undercutting with few complications .....

Messy is a generous description Blue, i can think of others that would break the swear filter.

We REALLY do not want more wind and rain up here, enough already....

[knocker]

The ecm has an extension of the vortex dropping into the Atlantic at T144 followed by some explosive cyclogenisis

All resulting in a deep low dominating the mid Atlantic

 

[northwestsnow]

GEM closer to GFS than EC by day 10..(FWIW)

 

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GEM closer to GFS than EC by day 10..(FWIW)

 

Funny thing is ecm looked better at 168 hours in the atlantic but then ends up flatter!!how on earth lol!!

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Funny thing is ecm looked better at 168 hours in the atlantic but then ends up flatter!!how on earth lol!!

EC was flatter at 168 matey..

Think there might be one or two tosses and turns here 120-144, ens will be interesting and then the 12z runs of course.

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC was flatter at 168 matey..

Think there might be one or two tosses and turns here 120-144, ens will be interesting and then the 12z runs of course.

Sorry i meant 144 hours!!im gona stick my neck out and say ecm is wrong and gfs is wrong later on!!i think ukmo is bang on the money lol!!love to see the 168 hour chart on ukmo!

[Frosty.]

Morning Gang, it's Monday morning and I'm here to accentuate the positives..and the windchill!!!.. yesterday's Gfs 0z operational hinted at this outcome for late Nov and this mornings 0z follows through on that potential..and then some, we get a double whammy of cold shots, from the east and then the north!!..snow, ice, frosts..you name it, just embrace these lovely charts until the 6z!!!!!!!!!!!!❄

[feb1991blizzard]

We had netter hope the ECM op is an outlier - looks one because the GEFS suite is promising.

 

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

We had netter hope the ECM op is an outlier - looks one because the GEFS suite is promising.

 

It is...from what i can see on the mean.

[booferking]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

The ext GEFS this morning much along expected lines. The European ridge amplifying into the eastern Arctic with a diffuse Aleutian/Canada vortex on the other side with associated trough aligned across southern Greenland.> eastern Atlantic. Thus still some indications of retrogression of the pattern leaving us with the complications of the surface analysis. temps around average

Is that temp average countrywide for the next 5 days cause Met Eireann had Ireland 2-3c below normal for the week ahead??

[Ali1977]

ECM op defo seems an outlier looking at the mean, the mean looks far more like the GFS. 
Also, the mean improves when hoping from 216 to 240 which makes me think that many are showing some good easterly feeds. 

[shaky]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM op defo seems an outlier looking at the mean, the mean looks far more like the GFS. 
Also, the mean improves when hoping from 216 to 240 which makes me think that many are showing some good easterly feeds. 

Yup LOOKS like the ecm has had an embarrassing moment this morning!!according to gfs ensembles i should expect a frost every night for the next 9 nights!!

[northwestsnow]

Yes shaky...

Det out of kilter, got to hope its not the start of a trend ...

Hopefully GFS 6z does not follow it.

[knocker]

39 minutes ago, booferking said:

Is that temp average countrywide for the next 5 days cause Met Eireann had Ireland 2-3c below normal for the week ahead??

Sorry I'm not understanding the qustion considering the post you are quoting