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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

All in all a bit of a tail off  -  not too much of a let down -  The possible 14th Narniaism  has all but disappeared so far as the 12z output shows.

Pick of the GFS is a midnight nowcast  -  the rest of the run is somewhat benign.

uksnowrisk.thumb.png.c5ef602ba1e82b0e3b021d8dcea39f27.png

Early days.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The ECM unravels at the end because of an SPT .

Shortwave phasing tragedy at 216hrs . Also the initial low moving se is too deep , this needs to be shallower .

You don’t want any interaction between the main low to the west and the low over the nw of Germany .

At this range those issues could still be resolved more favourably for coldies . 

 

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
19 minutes ago, knocker said:

How would you expect any CAA to materialize blue given the Euro ridge will be an apparent block?

I still think our best chance of CAA into the UK is via an undercut and a slight retrogression of the Scandi block and re-orientation east to west - iceland to Scandinavia with the trough directly underneath along the same longitude and an Easterly flow.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I still think our best chance of CAA into the UK is via an undercut and a slight retrogression of the Scandi block and re-orientation east to west - iceland to Scandinavia with the trough directly underneath along the same longitude and an Easterly flow.

But you could well end up with this sort of pattern with no cold air source

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-mslp-4553600.thumb.png.27f9c9cbda6855e107951d56e984d00a.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-4596800.thumb.png.685e084fc6a6817f853cf7e6eaab93af.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, knocker said:

But you could well end up with this sort of pattern with no cold air source

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-mslp-4553600.thumb.png.27f9c9cbda6855e107951d56e984d00a.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-4596800.thumb.png.685e084fc6a6817f853cf7e6eaab93af.png

I agree it could go wrong or might take a few re-orientations of the high to get there but see it as a better bet.

EDIT : IMO the GEFS, however maligned they are are a very good indicator and the chances of deep cold into the UK before December are slim to non-existent - they run out to Nov 26th (ish) now and for no flatliners at -8 to -10c usually means no chance - its can anything happen during the first half of December that is the question.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
3 hours ago, Catacol said:

I think it’s important feet stay well grounded. 2010 

 

 

Funny on the other side of the pond 2010 had a cold December and quite a bit of snow but nothing really legendary or memorable, February 2012 or January - March 2013 were something else

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
45 minutes ago, knocker said:

How would you expect any CAA to materialize blue given the Euro ridge will be an apparent block?

Heading into the period with the weakest solar input, a continental flow ahead of sliding systems doesn’t require  any strong CAA for coldies to be smiling knocks ......

I am noticing a trend for the low anomolys to cut off that ridge over time in any case ....

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Heading into the period with the weakest solar input, a continental flow ahead of sliding systems doesn’t require  any strong CAA for coldies to be smiling knocks ......

I am noticing a trend for the low anomolys to cut off that ridge over time in any case ....

You talking sliders then? thought you were talking a Greenland high before - yes i suppose a dumping always possible from those.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Cold and unsettled for the foreseeable, with the jet aligned on a southerly NW-SE aligned trajectory, with heights set to build to our NE and perhaps longer term advecting to our NW, maintaining the cold fairly cyclonic theme. If this was January or February a very snowy month would be unfurling with conditions just on the right side of marginal for low level snow for many - alas we are only into mid November, but yesterday showed we are getting close to wintry territory right now.

Longer term - it looks a bit of a mess, and hard to call, but no signal the atlantic wants to race into gear on a westerly path anytime soon, and instead the suggestion is for heights to remain preety high somewhere to our north, making for patterns that are not the usual affair in November. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
30 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You talking sliders then? thought you were talking a Greenland high before - yes i suppose a dumping always possible from those.

No greeny high feb .... just a weak high  anomoly which would reflect an absence of the vortex in the region 

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Arome seems to want to develop what looks like a small area of low pressure on the cold front later tonight bringing the south east stronger winds and an increase in intensity of the rain over a small area of South East England through early tomorrow morning that would be pretty squally to say the least and would give quite a lot more rain for that region compared to elsewhere but we shall see.. 

Arome wind gusts.. 

208356333_UK_GUST_20(1).thumb.jpg.4dee82baaaab92f3d647991267085491.jpg

1177125909_UK_GUST_21(1).thumb.jpg.fce3bb6650e917c735b210973039bcb1.jpg

883964108_UK_GUST_22(1).thumb.jpg.89025e23653aeb846b2bcaf30bdd23ac.jpg

366428253_UK_GUST_23(1).thumb.jpg.99dd4a648aa6df8ea4301fe938563154.jpg

UK_GUST_25.thumb.jpg.6bb2927000120e388c20fce1868d89f8.jpg

Arome rainfall.. 

UK_RAIN1_18.thumb.jpg.39560640efe46d0bf84af2fbd063a89d.jpg

1372656376_UK_RAIN1_20(2).thumb.jpg.c7f63477188abf14002c7a220060b738.jpg

1471917336_UK_RAIN1_21(1).thumb.jpg.95d1c20ead6a35fb9151728dd5d7ad6f.jpg

Arpege too has some form of circulation developing on the cold front for the south helping to slow its progress eastward with quite strong winds.. Some fairly significant snow for high ground of Scotland too. :oldgood:

Arpege rainfall.. 

12_11_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.b9492faee6dd3984d4fd71082c7edd09.png

12_14_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.fb7c90a8b009442732e56409e4bb3819.png

12_16_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.1b48b50a0818423980133a19725b9756.png

2057925671_12_19_ukpreciptype(1).thumb.png.ceee2c68837986fa645949fb9e790292.png

1791836251_12_21_ukpreciptype(1).thumb.png.c5f320b71b2552afda109b16b47455ab.png 

It also shows very strong winds for the Bristol Channel during the early hours of tomorrow morning with gusts shown to reach 70mph.. Seems excessive but something to keep an eye on..

Arpege wind gusts.. 

12_14_ukwindvector_gust.thumb.png.4a90674a6374574ec43c29e1c07a0888.png

12_16_ukwindvector_gust.thumb.png.8aca1624aa34ade64f19c8fef0f6abe4.png

12_21_ukwindvector_gust.thumb.png.139fb7cf4bd119ac055039651c973ef0.png

Very windy in the west on the cold front through the early hours too.. 

UK_GUST_14.thumb.jpg.240c1af4e77c3765dbe76f193d9ec0c4.jpg

Elsewhere is still looking wet with rain pushing fairly swiftly eastward though it may slow down for the east if a small area of low pressure does develop on the front although clearing the far east by midday into the north sea with sunshine and blustery showers behind. An active 12 hours or so ahead. ?️ 

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

I'm looking at the output tonight and thinking two things- how interesting things look hemispherically but also wondering how much more rain we are going to see fall. The ground is thoroughly sodden, everything is so damp. It's been going on here since May/June.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Not much comment on the 18z?great fi if only the 850swere hovering!!!

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'm looking at the output tonight and thinking two things- how interesting things look hemispherically but also wondering how much more rain we are going to see fall. The ground is thoroughly sodden, everything is so damp. It's been going on here since May/June.

What have we always said Aaron?, the type of setup that brings flooding is the omnipresent trough that drives waves into the strat (always seem to be in first half of Nov following decent -AO / SAI Octobers that deliver in winter), Carlisle flooding, and another - 2009 then 2010 - what happened next?  -  big -NAO December spells - have faith although we wont see a very early cold spell IMO - a bit later with SSW the form horse this time.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
26 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'm looking at the output tonight and thinking two things- how interesting things look hemispherically but also wondering how much more rain we are going to see fall. The ground is thoroughly sodden, everything is so damp. It's been going on here since May/June.

I know it’s been wet when I look at the GFS projection of 50mm+ over the next 10 days and think ‘Hmm. Not too bad’.

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What have we always said Aaron?, the type of setup that brings flooding is the omnipresent trough that drives waves into the strat (always seem to be in first half of Nov following decent -AO / SAI Octobers that deliver in winter), Carlisle flooding, and another - 2009 then 2010 - what happened next?  -  big -NAO December spells - have faith although we wont see a very early cold spell IMO - a bit later with SSW the form horse this time.

The Carlisle flooding occurred in January 2005 not November, but you are right about 2009, severe flooding here in November followed by the very cold December. The last very wet autumn on a par with what this one may end up being is 2000 which saw heavy rain well into December, followed by a christmas freeze.

November 2010 I don't recall being very wet first half.

What is more interesting is when we have trough action dominating so to speak in first half of November, with flips occurring into December, a trough that becomes stuck so to speak rotating in on itself, as seems to be happening now, is suggestive things perhaps are not quite the norm. When it dives south as seems to be doing into Europe also a possible telling sign, all may not be normal service as we enter winter. (normal service - being westerlies predominating).

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
12 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

The Carlisle flooding occurred in January 2005 not November, but you are right about 2009, severe flooding here in November followed by the very cold December. The last very wet autumn on a par with what this one may end up being is 2000 which saw heavy rain well into December, followed by a christmas freeze.

November 2010 I don't recall being very wet first half.

What is more interesting is when we have trough action dominating so to speak in first half of November, with flips occurring into December, a trough that becomes stuck so to speak rotating in on itself, as seems to be happening now, is suggestive things perhaps are not quite the norm. When it dives south as seems to be doing into Europe also a possible telling sign, all may not be normal service as we enter winter. (normal service - being westerlies predominating).

Cumbria 2009, must have been a dufferent part than Carlisle, sure there was floooding in 2010 as well

image.thumb.png.63dcf368f6988e4298f68c46de3c944f.pngimage.thumb.png.ec05a5ffaa12a2a43e449cde0e8f82a0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle
  • Location: Carlisle
11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Cumbria 2009, must have been a dufferent part than Carlisle, sure there was floooding in 2010 as well

image.thumb.png.63dcf368f6988e4298f68c46de3c944f.pngimage.thumb.png.ec05a5ffaa12a2a43e449cde0e8f82a0.png

2005 Carlisle

2009 parts of Carlisle but was more significant for cockermouth and keswick 

2015 Carlisle storm Desmond 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

And I think we are close to having the the first of the year Boom at day 10, this could be an good run if the HP can just hang on long enough to the NE to allow the cold to reach our shores.

5419E1F0-A29F-4F84-881C-424CE6041960.png
day 12

204BCBA8-402F-404B-92C6-61B468AF58D8.png
this in FI, cracking run but I think this would be extremely unlikely or lucky !!

B4B4C506-E4A8-4BE8-B681-87E6569F6D7D.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Gfs output 7 to 10 days a semi reliable time frame looking Very interesting and unusual with high pressure setting up just to the northeast not cold at first due to the air originating from the southeast of Europe but eventually draws a cold Easterly air stream originating from North of East.. Definitely a wintry looking pattern.. :oldsmile:But it could show something a lot different the next run   but I guess for coldies at least this output isn't shown for 384hr away never getting closer ⛄

GFS day 7..

EUROPE_PRMSL_180.thumb.jpg.d231c4c51aacfba38fe0b5126657952b.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_180.thumb.jpg.9b154e1675bbc2b09dd3f1859979df83.jpg

Day 9..

1444276317_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_216(3).thumb.jpg.b9a4d5a353e36ad32a175e8904a7ca09.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_234.thumb.jpg.b31c72ce61fb72754fbf44a6a51c1041.jpg

Day 10..

531044658_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_240(14).thumb.jpg.1de8cc3d49a17ea1acdf65efdded5f34.jpg

Day 12..

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_300.thumb.jpg.fbecedeb30ab2f4b7ff406df88d67af7.jpg

GFS locks us into a blocked and cold pattern after day 10 until the end of the run day 16 but to highlight the huge change from last night's output here is the difference... 

This update.. 

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_372.thumb.jpg.3493d9c45bbf1bbbca44381b829521ca.jpg

Last nights update same day.. 

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_384.thumb.jpg.c1e34b9c160622db0d9ff13c7f4465a5.jpg

One thing that's interesting about this time frame is a blocking high over Greenland basically in the same place on both runs which is quite a consistent thing to be shown for so far out.. But it's over 2 weeks away so it will flip flop between mild and cold and everything in between as it usually does and is expected with so many conflicting influences in our small part of the world.

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

10 day ENS mean, I think the forum may have plenty of comments this morning 

0B247C35-25C8-4A33-8EFF-DEE4EF71DBDF.png

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