Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

50/50 for me, don't want it to stall as that would likely meaning the azores high ridging into Spain

Arctic high of 1045 MB popping into view at day 8- wonder if that will have any effect.

I like...

ECH1-216.thumb.gif.a11cdcafd914b87629b4703398723f0d.gif

but i see what you mean,we need it to slide further SE.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

This is the 'real' undercut, wished this run went out further, still would be those 2 shortwaves and the issues with them to sort out, but this is the first up run of the season where if it went to 384, that we would be in with a shout of the really brutal uppers reaching us.

image.thumb.png.620b9d78042c60fbdda8420626a56550.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM T240 looks interesting:

image.thumb.jpg.b30e906dcb752c276842992c5681206f.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.fe7b2574dfa6c368c137315c1e7ebd76.jpg

Totally different evolution to either UKMO or GFS (I preferred the GFS) good to see no vortex in the usual place, but just highlights the uncertainty going into this winter, massive, and should provoke much discussion in here as the clock ticks down on Autumn....

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
4 minutes ago, coldwinter said:

Absolute stonker of an ECM so far 

ecm 216 10th nov 12z.png

Warmer air out to the Southwest, pushing through?

If you like wet & miserable, stonking, yes!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Once the midweek trough has been relegated south east, Saturday and perhaps Sunday, could well be not bad days although a frontal system and a developing wave is being forced east

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-3905600.thumb.png.7eb293831e4132eb60cc8c5956d7aa63.png144.thumb.png.daf06ec9e3f9331377e11b16caffe6cb.png168.thumb.png.f15c520662a6d25eeea068e4c6319bd3.png

But the key here is the extension of the vortex that has dropped into the western Atlantic baroclinic zone and the surface low once again undergoes rapid cyclogenisis which amplifies the downstream subtropical ridge. Will colder air sneak down the eastern edge over the UK

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-3992000.thumb.png.fe4a106167997efd9ec8b4c61c6479c7.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-t850_anom_stream-3992000.thumb.png.e589b464e5ad615479554dc04482ae72.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-4078400.thumb.png.2e2e303ce4c4c60a9c8d543fe251f1e6.png

 

Edited by knocker
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Warmer air out to the Southwest, pushing through?

If you like wet & miserable, stonking, yes!

I think was talking about the NH profile there pantz

blocking to the north and trough undercutting to our SW,ok this is one run and didn't quiet make it but there is a lot of interest in the models at the moment and beats mild SW'ly muck

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
20 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Warmer air out to the Southwest, pushing through?

If you like wet & miserable, stonking, yes!

Yes, warning to be issued for the Midlands for Tuesday and Thursday for flooding

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

OK, so no cigar on the ECM but the building blocks are in place. Whichever way you look at FI charts they won’t be correct - cold or mild.
With things looking v good around day 8/9 on the GFS and ECM I think we’re in a decent place for model watching over the next few days at-least, the reality of what happens in the last week of Nov is still wide open of course. It would be nice for a glimmer of hope from the professional long range models, if this was going to become something v cold they’d have an idea by now you’d think.

 

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

OK, so no cigar on the ECM but the building blocks are in place, and whichever way you look at FI charts they won’t be correct cold or mild. So with things looking v good around day 8/9 on the GFS and ECM,  I think we’re in a decent place for model watching over the next few days at-least, the reality of what happens in the last week of Nov is still wide open of course. It would be nice for a glimmer of hope from the professional long range models, if this was going to become something v cold they’d have an idea by now.

 

Well it would be nice to think so, but with GloSea5 probably out tomorrow, I think it may show exactly the same as it has for months.  I genuinely believe now that the seasonal models can't cope with something anomalous about this year which is the solar minimum,  so come on GloSea5 tomorrow, give it your best shot, and you'll be wrong just like Autumn...

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
8 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

A pretty respectable ECMWF run for those who like the chilly conditions. Maybe a bit of a drier, less unsettled break between 168 to 192 hours, as the run throws up a triangular ridge North and North-Eastwards through Western UK.

0CAE4342-9825-433D-B3D3-3343D392910E.thumb.png.f4e9ea143a3faa8c6e96ed56bc48d6f2.png19CE97E6-256D-4198-A7F0-407308BDD1A9.thumb.png.9e82ff39e1d7ae031fc560afabbb6b09.png

A bit of breathing-space from all the wet weather that’s gone on (though there may be some showers, possibly wintry on high ground, over Eastern UK)

Another thing to add - regarding those Norwegian Sea isobar kinks and shortwaves feb1991blizzard was talking about earlier on the 12Z GFS, this is what would need to be watched out for:

1A24DAC3-BFD2-43A7-9930-8CB391B51015.thumb.jpeg.2d6074f66aa50a5caf69bcea89b64074.jpeg7FDB0FFA-F19B-4862-BBC5-3B3445199664.thumb.jpeg.15932afdfcb1af0a0c5223e67e2daba6.jpeg

The black circle marking out the kinks and developing shortwaves in the Easterly to North-Easterly flow on that run. This then developing into a more circular closed off Low Pressure system to the North of Scotland submerging the Easterly to its doom.

1B39F14D-51F2-4E88-A22F-B9CAF61E9FE9.thumb.png.357096a0ec388752237b5ddbe76a2e14.png

These kinks/shortwaves, when they behave themselves (which could be quite rare), can...

1). Bring organised areas of sleet and snows showers, or longer spells of sleet and snow.

But they can also...

1). Destroy Easterlies

2). Steal the wintry weather fans’ snow and deep cold 

3). Cause laptops to be thrown out of windows

If I may add a thought. It looks very much like frontal wave development  Mind all pretty irrelevant at that range

gfs-deterministic-eur-t850_anom_stream-4251200.thumb.png.80382e3718a691ea94a6e1436a2c59e8.pnggfs-deterministic-eur-t850_anom_stream-4337600.thumb.png.5ba54ae425e61a1109cebaa7c3e22a93.pnggfs-deterministic-eur-t850_anom_stream-4424000.thumb.png.c308fbeb5f6fdb86c06efdcb3eb63dc5.pnggfs-deterministic-eur-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-4424000.thumb.png.f4c7f5e1901a850c8c4a3f8e5df70d93.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Fog, Frost, Storms and Rain if it rains like it means it.
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border

Thank you @DiagonalRedLine for the info and diagrams on the shortwaves - I have been wondering how/why they caused issues but didn't like to ask.

And thanks to all of you who help us lurkers learn, especially with the explanations and helpful graphics. Currently learning loads with the interesting model outputs!

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
12 minutes ago, knocker said:

If I may add a thought. It looks very much like frontal wave development  Mind all pretty irrelevant at that range

gfs-deterministic-eur-t850_anom_stream-4251200.thumb.png.80382e3718a691ea94a6e1436a2c59e8.pnggfs-deterministic-eur-t850_anom_stream-4337600.thumb.png.5ba54ae425e61a1109cebaa7c3e22a93.pnggfs-deterministic-eur-t850_anom_stream-4424000.thumb.png.c308fbeb5f6fdb86c06efdcb3eb63dc5.pnggfs-deterministic-eur-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-4424000.thumb.png.f4c7f5e1901a850c8c4a3f8e5df70d93.png

Fair enough And true, since it’s likely to change on next run.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Well the ECM ends on a very strange looking chart:

image.thumb.png.a2d72ffbb5cfc13bf624a15ae219a37b.png

I'll eat my hat if this chart comes to fruition (not a high risk bet given that it's day 10), but the continuing theme of the PV being dragged through a hedge backwards is very easy on the eye!  If it stays in this bedraggled state, it's only a matter of time until something lands on our doorstep..... surely!?

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

Warmer air out to the Southwest, pushing through?

If you like wet & miserable, stonking, yes!

Agreed on face values...a quick look it's ok..

Delve deeper into the 216/240...

It could ho awfully wrong there after!!=

Or REALLY well..

Blocking...great...oscillation...a worry !!!

@12z ecm

 

edit:=

a worthy snap...of cold expansion + possibly- migration as we head to the end of the month...as per....block/pressure format s...Will be foremost....in those developments....

temp4 (8).png

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The day ten ecm mean has the trough undercutting SE west of the BI with a ridge ahead of it

 

EDH1-240.thumb.gif.33b756d6e2a7e358142f0055b495185f.gif

the ecm does look unsettled later on and is something we don't need is more rain .

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Hmmm .... the Canadian vortex merely becomes an extension of the main vortice on the other side of the NH with a weak high anomoly slowly establishing in the nw atlantic around greeny ....I would expect coldies to be getting quite interested as the last third of November comes into view ....

 

 

How would you expect any CAA to materialize blue given the Euro ridge will be an apparent block?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...