Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[Tim Bland]

Not much in the way of cold air to tap into though ? 

[feb1991blizzard]

Strong 10mb warming coming up on this one by 384 as well,

[snowray]

22 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Not much in the way of cold air to tap into though ? 

Indeed, in fact its the warmest November on record in parts of Russia, hit 21c in Stalingrad this week, or whatever its called these days. When the cold does start to move West it heads for Greece as usual.

 

Edited November 9, 2019 by snowray

[Jordan S]

Rain heavy in a few places continuing for the Midlands Wales and then weakens back into the South with snow for higher ground of Wales eventually all fizzles out by dawn.

 

Gfs showing the low pressure system on Wednesday into Thursday to slip mostly to the south of us bringing mostly rain but a little hill snow to Western and southern areas then turning drier with a brisk Easterly wind.

Icon isn't showing a good scenario for areas around Sheffield in particular for next Thursday with nearly a re-run of a couple days ago with a stalled out weather front. Ofcourse this will likely change especially as its much different to the previous update but these slow moving fronts are a frequent occurrence so far this autumn.

Edited November 9, 2019 by jordan smith

[feb1991blizzard]

Wave 1 at the top, to follow up the near split lower down that Lorenzo showed in the strat thread.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

25 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Strong 10mb warming coming up on this one by 384 as well,

Yes it's a much stronger warming with some orange blobs showing now

18z v 12z

 

hopefully we will see some reds soon.

 

Edited November 9, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[Allseasons-Si]

The control is going for the scandi height's again from day ten>,it's consistent i will give it that.

and the mean at 300..

 

Edited November 9, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[Allseasons-Si]

And the last one from me...

the jma at 264 with a near perfect synoptic

just a last note,my partner is home now and she is on the mend,it has been a strange week without her.

 

[ArHu3]

2 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes it's a much stronger warming with some orange blobs showing now

18z v 12z

 

hopefully we will see some reds soon.

 

2 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes it's a much stronger warming with some orange blobs showing now

18z v 12z

 

hopefully we will see some reds soon.

 

On wetterzentrale you can follow the actual vortex for each run, not just the temp, which is more useful to watch (even better see the 3d renderings of the vortex on https://stratobserve.com/misc_vort3d but it is generated only once a day of the 00z}

 

Wetterzentrale - Top Karten - GFS Noordelijk halfrond 18Z

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

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Wetterkarten GFS Noordelijk halfrond 18Z

 

[feb1991blizzard]

57 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

On wetterzentrale you can follow the actual vortex for each run, not just the temp, which is more useful to watch (even better see the 3d renderings of the vortex on https://stratobserve.com/misc_vort3d but it is generated only once a day of the 00z}

 

Wetterzentrale - Top Karten - GFS Noordelijk halfrond 18Z

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

---

Wetterkarten GFS Noordelijk halfrond 18Z

 

To be honest, i like the format the Berlin site uses, i wished they had the GFS and other models and the ensemble means, because they have height contours and temperature in colours together on the same chart.

[Mucka]

Trend?

[Ali1977]

Day 11, this is not far off being something pretty special. Unfortunately on the Atlantic will likely win. Let’s see if more GEFS trend this way by day 10/11.

Edited November 10, 2019 by Ali1977

[northwestsnow]

UKMO/GFS very similar this morning..

GFS00Z brings some cold air into the UK through next week, Central Scotland in particular where temps really begin to struggle as we head into next weekend..

Thur 9pm

Fri 9pm

yes, thats a -7 at 9pm!!

sat 6am

i spot a -10 !!

sun 6am

monday 6am

tues 6am

And the scene across Europe by next tues..

As can be seen above that is 6 days of cold,to very cold temps across the UK, it is but one GFS op but the fact that UKMO is very similar makes it plausable.

All the while a huge anticyclone build to our NE , fascinating model watching ATM..

Edited November 10, 2019 by northwestsnow

[knocker]

Outlook - the country staying south of the jet so unsettled and cold

The North Atlantic 300mb analysis and jet profile and the surface analysis along with the 0400 UK surface chart

A frosty start to the day in the north but the rain and showers currently affecting south Wales, central southern areas and the south west should clear this morning resulting in a day with plenty of sunshine for most. But plenty of rapid cyclogenisis way out to the west with a deep low near the tip of Greenland and fronts associated with this will bring rain to N. Ireland by 1800.

The band of rain will track east overnight effecting all areas by dawn followed by frequent squally showers

The front, which is trailing back to the now filling low east of Greenland, clears quickly Monday morning to leave a day of sunny intervals and frequent heavy squally showers which may well become longer periods of rain over northern Scotland courtesy of a wave on the aforementioned front.

The wave continues to develop overnight and becomes disconnected from the main trough, courtesy of some transient ridging, resulting in a windy day on Tuesday with frequent showers and longer periods of rain, falling as snow over the high ground in the north Feeling cold

By Wednesday upstream developments have pepped up the jet and this is driving more frontal systems south east towards the UK with further waves developing on the front. Another cool day with sunny intervals and some showers but not as windy.

By Thursday further developments upstream results in the subtropical high amplifying which buckles the jet which in turn re-orientates the trough over the UK. Thus a rather complex day vis weather with the occlusion across the centre of the country and rain tending to be south of this whilst clearer in the north

[knocker]

Continuing with the NH profile midnight Saturday.

Which on the surface boils down to another front being forced east which once again develops a wave but I'll just take a watching brief on this development

 

Edited November 10, 2019 by knocker

[Ali1977]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

Day 11, this is not far off being something pretty special. Unfortunately on the Atlantic will likely win. Let’s see if more GEFS trend this way by day 10/11.

Nothing too exiting in the GEFS, a few similar to the op but I’d say the op holds the most hope of any. 
It would be nice to see the ECM day 10 follow the GFS Op with rgds the picture to the NE.

Edited November 10, 2019 by Ali1977

[knocker]

Looking at the ext GEFS this morning perhaps signs of some retrogression of the pattern? Upstream still a strong North Pacific jet and a westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard but the vortex is somewhat diffuse and weakening over northern Canada. And downstream the trough has nudged tad west with the ridge now over Scandinavia stretching into northern Russia with quite positive anomalies, This would certainly have implications vis the surface analysis, not necessarily bad considering the recent weather. Anyway we shall see

[Ali1977]

If the GEFS FI long range anomaly knocker just posted was the long range models December forecast what would people be predicting? I imagine there would be quite a lot of excitement in here, but in reality when looking at the GEFS FI there’s nothing startling on show just yet. 
This chart still has much promise though, and must be miles away from all those long range models predicting a mild December with a rampant PV !! 

 

Day 10 ECM has a Scandy HP forming albeit not that deep into the Arctic, hopefully the mean follows suit later on.

Edited November 10, 2019 by Ali1977

[northwestsnow]

EC looks very similar to GFS...

Looks like long johns will be out the cupboard soon ..

 

[knocker]

The ecm starts next weekend not a million miles from the gfs but predictable it doesn't go long with the intense little wave although it does have a wave of sorts

[Ali1977]

ECM 10 day mean, not bad and again no PV of note. Decent match with the Op.

Edited November 10, 2019 by Ali1977

[knocker]

Perhaps a touch of retrogression (perhaps straw clutching) of the Euro/trough combo on the ext EPS? Will the surface high to the east gain some influence? Above my pay grade

Edited November 10, 2019 by knocker

[Georgina]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Looking at the ext GEFS this morning perhaps signs of some retrogression of the pattern? Upstream still a strong North Pacific jet and a westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard but the vortex is somewhat diffuse and weakening over northern Canada. And downstream the trough has nudged tad west with the ridge now over Scandinavia stretching into northern Russia with quite positive anomalies, This would certainly have implications vis the surface analysis, not necessarily bad considering the recent weather. Anyway we shall see

Thankyou @knocker for your posts really informative and easily understandable for a learner ! 

[Jordan S]

Hi guys 

Gem paints a rather wet ten day picture for most parts of the UK. 

As does the Ecm though it is the wettest option.. 

Ecm going with what the Icon's output was last night with a weather front pushing in on Wednesday and then stalling giving some central areas another soaking. Needs watching closely. But Still some uncertainty regarding this as to be expected with a fairly complex system. 

Perhaps a slight drying trend after day 10 but that's a long way off so no more detail needed.  There will be some decent sunny spells for most in between these weather systems so that's something to enjoy if rain isn't your thing. 

Edited November 10, 2019 by jordan smith

[bluearmy]

32 minutes ago, knocker said:

Perhaps a touch of retrogression (perhaps straw clutching) of the Euro/trough combo on the ext EPS? Will the surface high to the east gain some influence? Above my pay grade

Yes knocks ..... subtle changes ..... the n Pacific trough firming up more Aleutian than Alaskan and the w Russian ridge showing a bit of a retrogressive tendency - irrespective of trop surface consequences, that’s a solid recipe for affects into the strat