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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

As we wait the ECM, here's the GEFS at the very end of the run, T384:

gens_panel_iwz5.png

You can clearly see from that there is no one single pattern, especially not one of a single organised vortex primed to inflict mild wet stormy weather on the UK, there is more uncertainty in some areas than others, the spread chart illustrates:

image.thumb.jpg.8bb47d2604e2ec1c4ce81b2923dc09ac.jpg

In particular low uncertainty over the pole, the arctic high looks like it could have some longevity...implications for us local in the UK tbd but it's better than having a raging vortex sat there, for sure....

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Little change upstream from the ext mean GEFS this evening this but perhaps a slight intensifying  of the Iceland > UK trough portending a continuation of changeable weather with temps around average

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4510400.thumb.png.0e7dd5e37b7dc7a6ea925f8579deab8b.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-4510400.thumb.png.48f0edd8df3e9dd742c420f8409fe125.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Icon showing a mixture of rain sleet and snow pushing through the far south on Wednesday night into Thursday.. 

12_111_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.13d28824bb112a673ccd26d3641263d3.png

12_114_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.f67cd9787971a537dd0c7764a01fd78c.png

12_117_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.6eca7f26348db02d1762c6d9eafe4dd5.png

Interesting output but looking at the temperatures shown it would be mostly hill snow with more of a wintry mix at lower levels.

12_117_uk2mtmp.png

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I wonder whether the day 7 chart might end up being further west .

The shortwave drop down point is often poorly modelled , the GFS in particular is more likely to have the pattern too far east.

A bit more amplification upstream is still possible given the continued movement of the MJO.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

With all eyes on the seasonal model updates for Nov (GloSea5 should be out Monday) only to ignore them when they don't say what we want!  Only joking, there are good reasons why the seasonal models may not be totally on board re solar activity, I think (see teleconnections thread), but what of the trusty CFS.  I've not posted charts from CFS for a while, but here are the last few runs anomaly for December (note one run means nothing, so you have to take a probabilistic view and post a number of runs to get an idea of what the CFS is saying), anyway here the last 4:

image.thumb.jpg.f30906780288bb612b0686c612839404.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.c595c59b91e161d86b3744d4040347d7.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.e1af9b77558ae202e615c1b1f207e2eb.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.d32faf962171568585aaad697d5abc3a.jpg

Yes, two can probably be classified as clown faces, but there is no clear signal for raging +AO apart from the black hole one!  What does strike me as a consistent signal off the four of them,  is a possibly strong jet off the Atlantic that might or might not go south of UK.  We will see... 

But with the 3-monthly averaged, perturbation averaged plots that we will see from GloSea5 and others to come shortly, the variability between the four plots above should be at the back of our minds when trying to interpret them....

 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, according to the GEFS 12Z ensembles, 16-days' coldish conditions are set to persist; all a little marginal viz low-altitude snowfall, however:

prmslLeicestershire.png   t850Leicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png   prcpLeicestershire.png

In the meantime, it's a waiting game...?:oldgrin:

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

A decent day on the models again, ECM 12Z keeps us pretty much on the cold side.. The op once again was on the colder side, but overall a slight improvement from the mean. My god i can't remember the last  time things remained on the cold side for a lengthy period. 3 or 4 more weeks of this, and perhaps we can start froffing at the mouth! Other than that enjoy yourselves a nice weekend beer!! Go on folks... You deserve it... Model watching can be stressful and thirsty work, if ya get me drift...

EDM0-144.gif

EDM0-168.gif

EDM0-216.gif

graphe_ens3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ext EPS this evening has an intense East European ridge into the Arctic in combination with a more diffuse Aleutian/Canada vortex.with associated troughs. But still still a strong North Pacific jet and a westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard to a slightly more amplified Iceland > UK trough, much along the lines of the GEFS. Although this does abate and diverge somewhat in the east, courtesy of the ridge it still portends changeable with temps a touch below average. NOAA much in the same ball park

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4510400.thumb.png.6c327d598959a59f0603a07b05288a2a.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-4510400.thumb.png.43d28801e8aa1f2bff1edc5ec966f77b.png814day_03.thumb.gif.6826659547e12558c4924eeff414a1dd.gif

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
2 hours ago, lorenzo said:

Trop Vortex pretty much getting savaged wherever u look...

image.thumb.png.6423317113b0e9d5379f34a2d4086d97.png

Rossby wave??=

The continue of circular height format @pole continue to be the sleeve on the shirt..that doesn't fit!!!

 

And the dig on the middle layer is of complete aid.

Any minimum 10 hpa Bunsen..

Will just aid-again..

Coupling is not of questions..

As its all transfer and provide!=

And I...4 one can see a probable LRF rip...and change from the larger networks....in the near term!!

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

And the trop pv is still asleep with it's foot on the brake.

 ao.sprd2.thumb.gif.51913e827db9c5c523e06eb6842f4332.gif

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Going on the 'cut dynamics'=

Easter/western seaboard occurs...

And northern hemisphere shots..

Are to say 'wondering/potentialy loaded is an Understatement!!!

 

This is a west based oscillation that has co-dee freindship for north west europe..

And these are as obviously referred synoptics.

 

If you block you choc...

And sweet tooth heaven has surely got chocolate dripping @us..

Again..it's relax..replenish..

 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_55.png

gfs-ens_z500a_us_30.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

This could be could by day ten

gfsnh-0-222.thumb.png.1be4e5f56c5a2269b1a3dac1e779bebd.png

trough more amplified upstream in the Atlantic forcing more high pressure up towards Scandi,watch for that SW curve SE of there.. 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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