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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

UKMO T144:

image.thumb.jpg.0fe91a92c951b98f76cc4ae805d007b3.jpg

Compare with ICON at same time, 

image.thumb.jpg.d4333f175d5edd4cfe4132542f11ccf9.jpg

UKMO more amplified, and that will impact on what happens later on, now over to the models that run for longer...

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Colder air on this run. Only a couple of degrees lower and we could be in business ☃️❄️

227A238D-6D58-42D2-8653-4152C4FD07A0.png

5F025B3E-9136-42FA-B500-AD192E67A834.png

Edited by Tim Bland
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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Gfs update not too dissimilar to the last for Wednesday /Thursday next week with low pressure across the UK bringing probably mostly heavy rain to lower levels further south with perhaps some hill snow at times then a raw feeling Easterly pulling in behind for friday.

12_108_preciptype_old.thumb.png.b2e92d1900a7002e064caa4f1c9f2955.png

12_117_preciptype_old.thumb.png.e40198db5e3efce53849ae00af2482f5.png

12_135_preciptype_old.thumb.png.f430a384623c0ca282e43beffa2d77e8.png

Tuesday could be very windy for a time too for Eastern England as Mondays system pulls away eastwards taking the heavy rain with snow for parts of Scotland with it. ?️?️

12_72_preciptype_old.thumb.png.5b405b1c32c5fa305336eed7acd17701.png

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

The amplification (or not ) around T144, seems to be important going forward, GFS with bigger amplification goes on to this at T180 (left) compared to ICON (right):

image.thumb.jpg.2f688900c33c91182b5b14c93d21a51d.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.3f3dfb5e4d444485eb1acd43c0c57b2c.jpg

As you should be aware by now, my interest at the moment isn't UK weather at this point, it's with the northern hemisphere patten, and GFS continues with the problems that the trop vortex is having in getting established.  And that's all good.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Gfs loses the plot day 12 ..... even more JFF than usual past this point ......

I have noted that at this point, this is the second consecutive op to dispense with the W Russian ridge as week 2 progressss 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gfs loses the plot day 12 ..... even more JFF than usual past this point ......

Maybe Blue-

Look at the cold pool to our NE in Fi though..

image.thumb.png.0b4afbcc909b09f8e72868736033554d.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Very cold surface temps into SE corner with max's staying below freezing, with cold uppers not far behind.

image.thumb.png.860a688b087927da4bd5766169c56d77.png

Yep, is this the next chase I wonder. The large Siberian high never gives up, and with a lack of PV fighting from the west in slowly heads our way..Extrême cold well into Scandy on this run. 

FA8D180F-26C9-4FA3-A7F2-32781E31FB10.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Maybe Blue-

Look at the cold pool to our NE in Fi though..

image.thumb.png.0b4afbcc909b09f8e72868736033554d.png

It is notable that despite that Atlantic low from the mid lats really deepening rapidly as it interacts with the vortex extension, it still disrupts once it reaches the e Atlantic .... 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

If you looked at the anomaly alone at T324 you’d think we were very close to being in the freezer - so are we??? 

1FCCAA6B-33E3-4732-8803-F10ACA56DB5D.png

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Very cold surface temps into SE corner with max's staying below freezing, with cold uppers not far behind.

image.thumb.png.860a688b087927da4bd5766169c56d77.png

That's not as cold as you might think. That flow would bring colder temps to central and some western parts of the country. 4's to 5's for the SE.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Ali1977 said:

Yep, is this the next chase I wonder. The large Siberian high never gives up, and with a lack of PV fighting from the west in slowly heads our way..Extrême cold well into Scandy on this run. 

Yes - the only problem is there seems to be the usual problem developing, the chunk over S Greenland on recent runs, its just enough to prevent an under cut which actually delivers.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Mapantz said:

That's not as cold as you might think. That flow would bring colder temps to central and some western parts of the country. 4's to 5's for the SE.

Hmm - A continental slack flow only one month before the shortest day.......

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - the only problem is there seems to be the usual problem developing, the chunk over S Greenland on recent runs, its just enough to prevent an under cut which actually delivers.

There’s a little battle ref the undercut though, that chunk isn’t getting its own way and barrelling through like it does sometimes.

LP always in the med - which will be causing flooding as it doesn’t move for 2 weeks

huge Siberian high.

Very cold in Scandy.  
They are some good positives going forward.

437B8712-FFDF-48FB-BCE7-E21F0304A5E4.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hmm - A continental slack flow only one month before the shortest day.......

Temperatures are shown to reach about 3 or 4c for that day it would probably feel sub zero in the raw Easterly wind though. But as its 2 weeks away its not worth looking too much into it. 

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

The trend is our friend it seems...

The Siberian high looks very strong and there is some very cold air beginning to mass way to our NE...

I wouldn't rule out some wintry suprises over the next week or so, esp further north and areas with altitude.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The trend is our friend it seems...

The Siberian high looks very strong and there is some very cold air beginning to mass way to our NE...

I wouldn't rule out some wintry suprises over the next week or so, esp further north and areas with altitude.

Just about to say we have a little trend developing - ENS will finally have one that will be towards -10c uppers. 
P4 - go on lad!! 

DCFD3D12-4048-4B28-BB6A-CA8B6829FBCC.png

2CC9ADC9-459E-4DB2-B327-4984B95FB133.png

Edited by Ali1977
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9 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Temperatures are shown to reach about 3 or 4c for that day it would probably feel sub zero in the raw Easterly wind though. But as its 2 weeks away its not worth looking too much into it. 

Yes whilst its all academic the 4c is over the SE with the 2c line close to debilt.

0c line further east still.

Nice synoptics to see - just another run with no zonal flow ( Like 2012 )

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Good trends, peeps...Nothing mild at all:

T+270 h850t850eu.png T+384h850t850eu.png

A tad 'stuck' for now, perhaps...but the potential is there!:oldgrin: 

And you know what we say about potential:

image.png.9037129a8d1ef42509820b18009f672e.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

The control is very close to the first boom chart, nearly undercutting into a Siberian onslaught 

0FF85EFF-1077-437A-A4AE-75BDE555CDF7.png
infact in a few frames I’m thinking the undercut will happen. 

so close, and the low behind this one looks much better with regards the undercut.

 

F310912E-A04D-419F-8DBC-9BC6ABCAE15F.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
41 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gfs loses the plot day 12 ..... even more JFF than usual past this point ......

I have noted that at this point, this is the second consecutive op to dispense with the W Russian ridge as week 2 progressss 

However, that does seem to tie in with the latest extended from Exeter. 

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