Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[SMU]

^^ Its looks wintry on the face of it - although uppers marginal & the key decider here is that the air will get modified over the long sea track which isn't that cold yet suggests just cold rain- Maybe wintry at elevation...

[Kentspur]

14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

^^ Its looks wintry on the face of it - although uppers marginal & the key decider here is that the air will get modified over the long sea track which isn't that cold yet suggests just cold rain- Maybe wintry at elevation...

Thanks for the heads up Sir Murr. Let's hope that East Euro high buggers off then and we get more of an Easterly slant to the flow at the same time for a shorter sea track. I'm off to Latvia 3 weeks today was hoping for some of the white stuff but its warmer there than here!

Edited November 9, 2019 by Kentspur

[Frosty.]

According to the GEFS 0z..snow could be coming to a lamp post near you next week!!❄

Edited November 9, 2019 by JON SNOW

[Methuselah]

And that's a nice cold HP area, up to the NE...Just what we need to see, IMO!

   

[booferking]

Gfs is drawing that deep cold in Siberia closer run by run..

 

Edited November 9, 2019 by booferking

[Iceaxecrampon]

GFS 06z

14-11-2019

Continues to deliver.......

Midnight ppn  - lamposts at 1000ft asl? 

Edited November 9, 2019 by Iceaxecrampon

[sebastiaan1973]

Extremely powerful area of high pressure east of Nova Zembla. Some cold air is moving westwards.  

[Methuselah]

Some very encouraging signals coming out of the NE, just now: even one the Unnameables has thought to mention the Russian HP, in its latest update...?

   

Get the cold in first -- the building blocks will follow?

[IDO]

^^^ The problem we have with this repeating pattern is that when we see a ridge build from the Atlantic we see potential as it seeps towards the Siberian High enabling that upper cold pool to be tantalisingly pushed our way. However, once the wedge of heights exits our arena we get a chunk of PV spat out from the NW that blocks that cold flow as it sinks into the Euro trough. This theme is constant at the moment and seems like a locked in pattern for the medium term.

That Azores High is omnipresent from T0-T384:

It never quite manages to sustain an angular flow to enable a block so it just injects wedges north, great for the bigger long term plan, but not much use when we have a great synoptic NH profile. It appears to be fed by the HP train coming from the West Pacific with a constant stream of HP cells sliding towards the UK. A reboot is needed as I am not seeing sustained cold reaching our shores with this setup.

[knocker]

The front beginning to pivot

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, IDO said:

^^^ The problem we have with this repeating pattern is that when we see a ridge build from the Atlantic we see potential as it seeps towards the Siberian High enabling that upper cold pool to be tantalisingly pushed our way. However, once the wedge of heights exits our arena we get a chunk of PV spat out from the NW that blocks that cold flow as it sinks into the Euro trough. This theme is constant at the moment and seems like a locked in pattern for the medium term.

That Azores High is omnipresent from T0-T384:

 

It never quite manages to sustain an angular flow to enable a block so it just injects wedges north, great for the bigger long term plan, but not much use when we have a great synoptic NH profile. It appears to be fed by the HP train coming from the West Pacific with a constant stream of HP cells sliding towards the UK. A reboot is needed as I am not seeing sustained cold reaching our shores with this setup.

I was musing for a while that as the Alaskan low becomes established, the Canadian vortex will spit with a little less oomph and that could allow the changes coldies are seeking 

[Frosty.]

Well, looking at the Ecm 0z ensemble mean, it's cold, certainly below average, certainly not mild! it's unsettled / cyclonic and there's certainly a risk of snow for upland areas and perhaps lower levels at times during the week ahead!

Edited November 9, 2019 by JON SNOW

[IDO]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I was musing for a while that as the Alaskan low becomes established, the Canadian vortex will spit with a little less oomph and that could allow the changes coldies are seeking 

Yes, with no sign of the tPV getting organised, that scenario could well be enough to rejig the drivers to be more aligned to UK cold, depending on other favourable machinations.

[Methuselah]

49 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Well, looking at the Ecm 0z ensemble mean, it's cold, certainly below average, certainly not mild! it's unsettled / cyclonic and there's certainly a risk of snow for upland areas and perhaps lower levels at times during the week ahead!

And the GEFS 06Z ensembles are suggestive of a similar outlook, karl: a cold/rather cold next 16-days!

   

   

[phil nw.]

Yes no doubt about it this pattern is persistent with the upper trough directed at us.It is very much a watch and wait situation.

All the latest forecasts are suggesting a weaker vortex as the month goes on so this should impinge on the 500 hPa pattern as the jet flow reduces.

We would then expect more of a blocked pattern but of course how this sets up is the waiting part.

In the meantime a rather cold and unsettled outlook remains with lows sliding se against that block to the east.

It will be fascinating to see how this plays out by December as it is not often we see a November like this in modeling terms.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Yes no doubt about it this pattern is persistent with the upper trough directed at us.It is very much a watch and wait situation.

All the latest forecasts are suggesting a weaker vortex as the month goes on so this should impinge on the 500 hPa pattern as the jet flow reduces.

We would then expect more of a blocked pattern but of course how this sets up is the waiting part.

In the meantime a rather cold and unsettled outlook remains with lows sliding se against that block to the east.

It will be fascinating to see how this plays out by December as it is not often we see a November like this in modeling terms.

Indeed Phil...

Looks cold across the 00z suite this morning..

Lots of positives when one looks at the bigger picture, still the seasonal models (and the latest BBC monthly)persist with a +NAO signature later in Nov and Dec however.

GLOSEA update due early next week so will be fascinating to see if any change in the models outlook.

In the meantime zero sign of any mild weather as far as the eye can see.

And a rather snowy scene in parts of Wales and Shropshire this morning..

[E17boy]

Good afternoon peeps

how are you all hope everyone is well. It was a cold start here in Walthamstow East London this morning with even some fog and frost and now the cloud is covering the sky again heralding the next batch of rain due this afternoon. 

I must say watching the models recently has been exciting especially at this time of year. I have a gut feeling that we are in a good position us coldies taking the recent track of weather systems. The general normal west to east pattern of our weather fronts has been different. Instead we are finding a lot of low pressure diving southeast.  Also the Azores slug had stayed in the far southwest, which is why more low pressure has been to the south of us. 

The latest model data seems to indicate no change in this pattern and my interest will be more of a focus to the north to see how high pressure develops and where it sits and also how much cold air there is. The unsettled theme is set to continue with more wet weather and at times drier periods with fog and frost. The higher ground in some parts further north will be lucky to see some white stuff. However later on we may se another change this week. As a weather front is set to clear on Wednesday night through Thursday, behind it we will be pulling in north Easterly or Easterly element. The big question here is will the air behind be cold enough to turn the rain into something wintry before it clears. We don't know that, the models are changing on a daily basis and as pointed out by some others today there is a very cold pool air developing over Siberia and Russia. We will have to see how the next few days of model watching pans out, but all in all very interesting developments may be to come. We are only on the 9th of November yet let's sit back and enjoy the ride could it be a winter we have waited for, time will tell. 

Wishing you all a great Saturday

THE SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND IS UNDERWAY 

kind regards

[phil nw.]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Indeed Phil...

Looks cold across the 00z suite this morning..

Lots of positives when one looks at the bigger picture, still the seasonal models (and the latest BBC monthly)persist with a +NAO signature later in Nov and Dec however.

GLOSEA update due early next week so will be fascinating to see if any change in the models outlook.

In the meantime zero sign of any mild weather as far as the eye can see.

And a rather snowy scene in parts of Wales and Shropshire this morning..

 

Yes it's surprising even without a direct bitter cold feed we manage to see these lower temperatures in what is basically a polar maritime north westerly pattern.

The fact that the Atlantic jet can't whip through with it's south westerlies means we do see steady cooling off under this upper trough.

As for later in Winter who knows all we can do is look at what we can see and that is 10-14 days As i am sure you know the professionals can look much further ahead and maybe they see factors that see an end to the current wave attacks on the vortex.

As ever time will tell.

[Ali1977]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Indeed Phil...

Looks cold across the 00z suite this morning..

Lots of positives when one looks at the bigger picture, still the seasonal models (and the latest BBC monthly)persist with a +NAO signature later in Nov and Dec however.

GLOSEA update due early next week so will be fascinating to see if any change in the models outlook.

In the meantime zero sign of any mild weather as far as the eye can see.

And a rather snowy scene in parts of Wales and Shropshire this morning..

I think I’ll be surprised if Gloasea atleast doesn’t point to an average December. With the amount of FI blocking into the 4th week of Nov showing in the ENS, it’s hard to see a zonal early Dec anyway. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

What is nice to see is that even if Scandi HP doesn’t really develop or take hold there is a set up continually coming through that is rinse repeat with LP systems diving down on a NW/SE axis keeping cold theme....which imo will become more pronounced as we move into winter.  A good looking start with Oct not being mild and Nov looking below normal with this cold direction........Dec well below anyone ? 
 

BFTP

Edited November 9, 2019 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Jordan S]

Next Wednesday and Thursday looks like a wintry mess over most of the UK according to the latest GFS highlighting the marginal side well. Not to be taken too seriously as still a few days away.

Edited November 9, 2019 by jordan smith

[knocker]

Behind he front and in the unstable frequent showers regime

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Pretty much as you were with the GFS 6z ensembles. In fact most of them keep the UK cold! There are also some crackers thrown in!! Its going to be very interesting to see if those long range models hold firm with the milder Wstly theme for December! If next month does decide to keep with the November theme, then it will gradually become that bit colder with time. These slider events would bring an increase in the risk of wintryness! Not worth getting to hung up on events over  3 weeks away though just yet. But me has a sneaky feeling that these models me be wide of the mark, or even start back tracking with time! We will see. So far though, I'm liking the output, and the general direction of travel. So like I said, some encouraging ensembles, and quite a cold op from the ECM! It was actually below the mean, but these colder runs do keep getting flagged up. 

Enjoy your days if you can folks. 

Edited November 9, 2019 by Mattwolves

[knocker]

Fragmenting front continuing to pivot, Certainly  quite unpleasant and cold under the rain

 

[shaky]

Got a horrible feeling that the amplification we are seeing in the atlantic around 144 hours is gona decrease with each run and we gona end up in a far flatter pattern than currently shown!!same thing happend over the last week!!