Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[Stonethecrows]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Wouldn’t take many tweaks to make this a decent run. If the flow turns more to the NE and we can tap into that colder air over Scandinavia we could be in business

 

 

Got a feeling "if" is going to be the most used word on here over the next few weeks.

[shaky]

Ecm to 144 hours

[Ali1977]

ECM looks so good at 144, better than the UKMO even as the WAA is pulling NW into Greenland a little.  Let’s see how it goes but I’m not holding my breath.

Edited November 8, 2019 by Ali1977

[knocker]

Similar theme with the ecm next week, different detail which will be resolved in the coming days if this evolution is anywhere near the money

[ICE COLD]

If the stupid high pressure to the east wasn’t there these charts would be even better ie bringing in colder uppers but there’s no way they can travel south and west with the slug to the east . So frustrating but still feeling cold and it’s still only November . 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Pretty amazing ECM folks... While the UK, France and Spain Look rather chilly, a good chunk of Central and Northern Europe warms up!!! Don't feel to hard done to folks.... We are stealing all there cold... Its about time we got something back...

[Ali1977]

As expected, rubbish come T216 with nothing cold even close. This pattern needs the big RESET button me thinks!! 
If the perfect beast set up occurred it would take 2 weeks to get here it’s that far away!!

Not sure I’ve seen such heights over Scandy without some sort of cold feeding round our way, totally blocked off on this occasion!! 

 

But still, as far as a NH goes it looks messed up and surely has potential for late Nov...

Edited November 8, 2019 by Ali1977

[snowray]

Pity we don't get charts like these in Winter months, like in January, a month that has let us down for many years, if they verify that is, pretty well useless in mid November. Re-run of November 2010 would be lovely though, although once in a generation event that was.

[legritter]

Hi gang ,im just trying to post a chart ,first time for many years .i like the look of tonights Ecm run . Very interesting times at present , i know its not winter yet BUT the weather certainly thinks so ,great forum gang , STEllas all round , heres to mother nature cheers .

[Don]

I wonder if that pesky high pressure to the east is what the seasonal models see as ruining winter?!

[knocker]

Some astonishing surface temp anomalies in the SE US next week

[BlazeStorm]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

As expected, rubbish come T216 with nothing cold even close. This pattern needs the big RESET button me thinks!! 
If the perfect beast set up occurred it would take 2 weeks to get here it’s that far away!!

Not sure I’ve seen such heights over Scandy without some sort of cold feeding round our way, totally blocked off on this occasion!! 

 

But still, as far as a NH goes it looks messed up and surely has potential for late Nov...

 

I wouldn't worry about the Northern Hemisphere at T216. The next few days are unpredictable enough!

[knocker]

Little change with the ext anomalies this evening

[Frosty.]

Taking a snapshot around the middle of next week on the GEFS 12z I noticed some snow potential even across the S / SE!..could be an early taste of winter next week..interesting postage stamps to say the least!!❄

Edited November 8, 2019 by JON SNOW

[Rocheydub]

59 minutes ago, knocker said:

Some astonishing surface temp anomalies in the SE US next week

Holy smoke! We'll probably see the jet fire up after too!

[Don]

26 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Holy smoke! We'll probably see the jet fire up after too!

It will need to track south if that's the case!

[Mike Poole]

So where do sit right now re prospects of wintry weather - the fewer number of posts might suggest that all has gone the way of the pear...that isn't so, but we do seem to have entered a holding pattern.  If you've read my previous posts you'll know that I've never been that bothered about the chances of cold or snow in the near term, would do nothing in my location early November anyway, more I've been interested in the potential for winter proper...and trying to get my head round conflicting messages from current model output, long range seasonal predictions, and teleconnections to the extent that I understand them.

So with that slightly longer timescale in view, to start with the main models 12z T240, GFS GEM and ECM:

Well the trop vortex is not totally organised but these are not completely random either, a picture is emerging, JMA T192 for fun:

Always seems to have a bias to amplification this one, but illustrates the point about the disorganised vortex.  

Moving on with GEFS, T300:

The constant seems to be the Scandi high in most runs, which should put pressure on the strat vortex, later, but what stands out in all these charts compared to a few days ago, is more emphasis on lower heights where we don't want them on the Greenland Canada side...

Looking at the strat ellipses from the GFS 0z from stratobserve, at about the same time T300:

The lower ellipses, the orangey ones, don't seem to match with the likely position of the trop vortex, so that's all good.  

All in all, a lot to play for with a few weeks left until winter, with the three options of a front loaded trop led winter cold pattern, a SSW with probable (but never certain) interest later on, or the unmentionable.  

Nov GloSea5 due out about Monday, that should either resolve things a bit or stoke up the debate if the standoff continues...which? to be honest I'd rather predict the general election...but at least we get to find out the GloSea5 issue in a few days.

 

Edited November 8, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Kentspur]

Another very interesting zonal winds forecast cant be ignored either. The thing that's most intriguing is it looks like a reversal could occur in the nearer term! Even the GFS ensembles seem to be dropping considerably. Fingers crossed for a SSW!

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Another very interesting zonal winds forecast cant be ignored either. The thing that's most intriguing is it looks like a reversal could occur in the nearer term! Even the GFS ensembles seem to be dropping considerably. Fingers crossed for a SSW!

If we are to get another early SSW, lets hope we benefit from it, unlike last year!

[Ali1977]

Day 7 and the pub run looking better than the last one around Greenland and the Arctic with regards heights, and the trough into Europe slightly stronger!! 

Edited November 8, 2019 by Ali1977

[Mike Poole]

GFS 18z here T144 compared to 12z T150:

More amplified on the other side too, early prediction for a vortex shredder op run?

Edited November 8, 2019 by Mike Poole
Ali beat me to it!

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 18z here T144 compared to 12z T150:

More amplified on the other side too, early prediction for a vortex shredder op run?

Looks like that pesky area of HP near Moscow scuppering it, forcing its way north and blocking any cold feed possibilities. I keep hoping opportunities for this to develop into a decent easterly but I’m defo convinced that ship has sailed Now, so looking for what FI holds in ways of other chances. 

Edited November 8, 2019 by Ali1977

[shaky]

Fantastic 18z so far if cold frosty seasonal whether is what you are after!upgrade on the 12z up to 168 hours!its been a very good evening in general from all the models!!

[Mike Poole]

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Looks like that pesky area of HP near Moscow scuppering it, forcing its way north and blocking any cold feed possibilities. I keep hoping opportunities for this to develop into a decent easterly but I’m defo convinced that ship has sailed Now, so looking for what FI holds in ways of other chances. 

Yes, to be honest I wasn't that interested in the UK cold prospects from this (see earlier post) but what I did want to continue to see was this at T228 on the pub run:

Another dis-membered (!) vortex, as long as we keep seeing this we are in the game without having to rely on a SSW.

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, to be honest I wasn't that interested in the UK cold prospects from this (see earlier post) but what I did want to continue to see was this at T228 on the pub run:

Another dis-membered (!) vortex, as long as we keep seeing this we are in the game without having to rely on a SSW.

I said nothing from the east , but after the initial failure this is now showing by day 10, huge HP developing over Siberia that does have cold air wrapped around the south of it!! 

850s 20c colder than the 12z in north Norway 

Edited November 8, 2019 by Ali1977