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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
2 hours ago, MattStoke said:

Yet another complete washout for the Midlands on Saturday according to the Euro4 model. Rain and hill snow clearing Wales and South West England by early afternoon but affecting the Midlands for much of the day as the front stalls and pivots with the rain sliding south eastward.

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What are the rainfall accumulations looking like? Does this pose any further risk of flooding in South Yorkshire? Thanks. 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
6 minutes ago, weatherguy said:

image.thumb.png.1f9f6bac22f1f81b898f4a9839e10a34.pngimage.thumb.png.ca527a565e3a7bbfdd54e2853c693db9.png

Another time, we'd be looking at "snowmageddon" with the positioning of the Euro trough and the Scandi high - a damn shame about the placement of the Siberian cold pool!  The +192h are akin to having the tap on your favourite barrel of ale being open, only to find there's nothing in said barrel apart from some rather miserable rainwater...

This particular set up isn’t looking like establishing into anything colder than this weekend in my eyes. It’s hard to see any block forming in the right place for U.K. as we head towards the 3rd week of Nov - obviously the 3rd week of Nov being the key bit as we are still a few weeks away from starting winter.
No longer range model points to anything cold in Dec and the GEFS have never looked like being cold, even though the NH profile alone looks quite promising. It’s been great pre-winter model watching though. 

So what next. Does this depend on the Strat, can we get a weak SSW up there in order to help something colder establish last week of Nov into Dec? I think it’s a slim chance, and nothing from the METO pointa that way but not out the question and they aren’t always right as we know.
Happy to watch it all unfold for now,and  happy to see the Alps get plenty of snow as a skiing hols booked in Jan to guarantee a snow fix one way or another 

Over to the 12zs. 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
4 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:


What are the rainfall accumulations looking like? Does this pose any further risk of flooding in South Yorkshire? Thanks. 

According to the 10 day GFS totals there’s nothing to out the ordinary really.

1F5758AA-0ADC-423D-B9F4-98D89A066EAD.png

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
6 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:


What are the rainfall accumulations looking like? Does this pose any further risk of flooding in South Yorkshire? Thanks. 

Most of the rain looks to be further west as the front stalls across the West/Central Midlands and then slides away south east. In fact, the rain may well not reach as far north east as Yorkshire. Here are the projected rainfall accumulations up to the end of Saturday.

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Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
24 minutes ago, weatherguy said:

image.thumb.png.1f9f6bac22f1f81b898f4a9839e10a34.pngimage.thumb.png.ca527a565e3a7bbfdd54e2853c693db9.png

Another time, we'd be looking at "snowmageddon" with the positioning of the Euro trough and the Scandi high - a damn shame about the placement of the Siberian cold pool!  The +192h are akin to having the tap on your favourite barrel of ale being open, only to find there's nothing in said barrel apart from some rather miserable rainwater...

Persistence of a trough over Western Europe has promoted milder weather in Eastern Europe. Dominoes not quite lined up yet. A cut-off High to the north is needed at the moment to get a cold pool closer to the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
30 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

This particular set up isn’t looking like establishing into anything colder than this weekend in my eyes. It’s hard to see any block forming in the right place for U.K. as we head towards the 3rd week of Nov - obviously the 3rd week of Nov being the key bit as we are still a few weeks away from starting winter.
No longer range model points to anything cold in Dec and the GEFS have never looked like being cold, even though the NH profile alone looks quite promising. It’s been great pre-winter model watching though. 

So what next. Does this depend on the Strat, can we get a weak SSW up there in order to help something colder establish last week of Nov into Dec? I think it’s a slim chance, and nothing from the METO pointa that way but not out the question and they aren’t always right as we know.
Happy to watch it all unfold for now,and  happy to see the Alps get plenty of snow as a skiing hols booked in Jan to guarantee a snow fix one way or another 

Over to the 12zs. 

Indeed, I wouldn't quite call it game-over just yet (I am an eternal optimistic when it comes to chasing the white stuff!) but I'm not particularly optimistic WRT the current setup and how things have trended over the past 24 hours.  I was hoping that we would see some stronger ridging in the Atlantic to make the most of the NH profile but, alas, this doesn't look likely now.

I do think we need a period of progressive zonality to clear the board and establish a cold pool in a more favourable position, and hopefully we get some wave 2 action as we head into December so that we can capitalise.  These stalling LPs aren't making life too pleasant in my part of the UK right now     

Edited by weatherguy
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
51 minutes ago, weatherguy said:

I do think we need a period of progressive zonality to clear the board 

Careful what you wish for!

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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
12 minutes ago, Don said:

Careful what you wish for!

I almost typed something along these lines in my original post ha!  I know how we can get "locked in" to zonal set ups, but sometimes it is necessary...

A major issue from last winter if i recall correctly was that there were exceptionally warm SST anomalies in the Labrador sea which was powering the Atlantic blowtorch, detracting from otherwise favourable background signals.  Looking now, we don't currently have the same extent of warm anomalies. 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Dunno if everyone is really tired of posting but after taken a look at the ukmo and gfs 12zs they look pretty darn good and cold!!ukmo looks even better than gfs at 144 hours!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

A slightly better Euro trough set up so far on the GFS 12 hrs run at T162hrs .

This means the cold pool is a bit more expansive eastwards and the deeper cold air to the ne a bit further sw. 

The key thing is we want the Russian high to get lost , it’s of no use at the moment , we want a separate high pressure cell over Scandi to be the driver with lower heights on its se flank .

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

Um.. maybe just maybe.. at 150 onwards it appears that the trough to our south east has shifted towards  Genoa improving angle of cold feed... 

Jet looks more amplified as well, another couple of these incremental shifts, not unreasonable at this range..................

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

A lot better setup from the gfs 192>,a colder flow from the NE too.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS trying now to retrogress the high . Note the dig south of the upstream troughing south of Greenland .

Yes,should keep that Scandi high pumped up.

then again,maybe not but a step in the right direction early on.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Wouldn’t take many tweaks to make this a decent run. If the flow turns more to the NE and we can tap into that colder air over Scandinavia we could be in business ??‍♂️☃️

 

 

2695DB93-ED0C-4A00-A08A-5413C5CAE6B8.png

97CDEDE8-804D-4730-9C90-5EEB639D0320.png

Edited by Tim Bland
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS trying now to retrogress the high . Note the dig south of the upstream troughing south of Greenland .

GFS trying to retrogress a high between day 6-10 range... how surprising

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

It’s getting messy at day ten . But overall this is an upgrade to the earlier run .

Main thing early on is the Euro trough , a few more changes and we could yet see something colder .

And the UKMO has improved so a decent start. Let’s hope the ECM doesn’t drop the baton.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Keeping an eye on developments middle of next week with the gfs this evening

As has been discussed previously mid Atlantic amplification of the subtropical high courtesy of the upstream troughs which facilitates new troughs from the north west to merge with the west European trough and thus establishes a new area of low pressure over the UK and thus further unsettled and cold weather/ Obviously far too early to discuss details but this is the current drift/

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-3732800.thumb.png.bd1b463778fc2f0f1053469f5178d210.pnggfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-3732800.thumb.png.4a04a3e2fcde4cbcfd8a3ce2f796993e.pnggfs-deterministic-eur-t850_anom_stream-3732800.thumb.png.3d0ba50f69325df7b91769a775158523.png

120.thumb.png.7a87f9e76b4132e01161b57527d9b565.png144.thumb.png.4b6d70b05576403b8eb2dac35d39c8d6.png168.thumb.png.79eca21d90e261cb5782e540f4bd76de.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Way in fi and our friend to the east is still lurking!!!up to the 240hr mark GFS isn't at all bad tbh

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
1 hour ago, knocker said:

Keeping an eye on developments middle of next week with the gfs this evening

As has been discussed previously mid Atlantic amplification of the subtropical high courtesy of the upstream troughs which facilitates new troughs from the north west to merge with the west European trough and thus establishes a new area of low pressure over the UK and thus further unsettled and cold weather/ Obviously far too early to discuss details but this is the current drift/

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-3732800.thumb.png.bd1b463778fc2f0f1053469f5178d210.pnggfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-3732800.thumb.png.4a04a3e2fcde4cbcfd8a3ce2f796993e.pnggfs-deterministic-eur-t850_anom_stream-3732800.thumb.png.3d0ba50f69325df7b91769a775158523.png

120.thumb.png.7a87f9e76b4132e01161b57527d9b565.png144.thumb.png.4b6d70b05576403b8eb2dac35d39c8d6.png168.thumb.png.79eca21d90e261cb5782e540f4bd76de.png

 

Yes the Thursday picture fits nicely with the theory in meteorology. That is surface lows deepen at the left exit.

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Arpege showing a mostly dry evening this evening for Midlands and into Eastern parts but the radar tells a different story :cc_confused:  the Icon and Hirlam showing the area of rain up well to push southeast this evening then slowly fizzing out. Nothing of particular interest just something to point out. 

Arpege.. 

12_6_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.f94e8ff69dbd783b772e8ac7c0d2be84.png

12_8_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.5e86dbfa47ef1a38e315615bff88fa8b.png

Radar now.. 

Screenshot_20191108_174029_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.d8370c50983d3fc908b9800f77b06f0b.jpg

Icon.. 

12_9_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.238029888f747cec070c02e5473d3d8e.png

Hirlam.. 

1870106368_12_6_ukpreciptype(1).thumb.png.b5f8c1e4fc6cb7982912ebfd8e4f769a.png

Despite the rather interesting longer term output the GFS ensembles show upper air temperatures rising close to average longer term but the unsettled weather persists particularly for more central southern areas. ?️☔

1663103289_ens_image(25).thumb.png.01e000c39e50366c980dc6ddc4548435.png

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

If we couldn’t see beyond day 7 I’d be v happy looking at the UKMO and the GFS, GFS looks pretty interesting up-to day 8 before dropping off some what. The UKMO looks full of long term potential, bigger wedge and PV further West in Canada.
mover to the ECM.

B42A56ED-B78D-473B-A708-5D5087A81B79.png

49FDF4B1-1994-435E-98FF-AF745BA0E0F2.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS looks nice this evening, everything i love about Autumn- cold dry,and a bit of fog/mist thrown in for good measure perhaps..

image.thumb.png.6fde96edf10e32d966a94be171578cb8.png

depends on location, that chart looks wet here due to persistent showers coming off the north Sea, same setup this Sunday, some areas around NE Midlands could be quite wet, GFS especially could be a vile day for some areas away from the SW/W/NW

UW48-21.GIF?08-17gfs-0-42.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A not unexpected ext GEFS mean anomaly this evening, Aleutian low and east European ridge into the Arctic and a somewhat diffuse Canadian vortex/troughs. Still a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard but diverging and abating in the east courtesy of the ridge and low pressure to the south east that has been established during the evolution of the pattern 

So still looking at changeable weather but detail tricky with the loss of eastward momentum and temps a tad below average but this covers a lot of variation

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4424000.thumb.png.ac33bd386675ca25446c3e8cf54ed1eb.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-natl_wide-t850_anom_5day-4424000.thumb.png.ba7e0186d10be5b311e2621b68767726.png

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