Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[Methuselah]

Not the best possible end to the GEF 00Z Operational one can imagine, but the Control has other ideas, entirely; and FI is FI, after all:

     

   

   

And, as I think it's fair to say, our long-lived -NAO has been very resilient, these past however many months?

 

[jules216]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Wow that’s interesting ,so could be something mega brewing then for a change,if this pattern can persist 

It certainly holds merit that there is no harm for this pattern to continue for a while, as per Cohen,Ventrice thoughts on twitter, we have a good shot at SSW then,maybe even before new year. I was surprised of the uncanny similarity with what is being forecast now, no wonder why some strat. charts are pointing to weakening vortex in long range.

[Iceaxecrampon]

00z GFS

Near term frontal system for this Saturday has a bit of a downgrade from this weeks output.

Any ppn well above valleys but Kirkstone Pass at 1500ft asl should see a dusting so more logs going on the fire in the Inn.

No snowplough needed to follow up as yet

Best the GFS can do in the way of the favoured date next week 14/11 Brecons should be "interesting" as the LP winds up.

16/11 Cant understand why this more NE Scandi flow isn't delivering much more in the way of ppn

[Iceaxecrampon]

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

FAX looks a bit wrong for tomorrow? looks like a dry day here

Yes GFS downgrade on the ppn as well.

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

FAX looks a bit wrong for tomorrow? looks like a dry day here

Arpege suggests the band of rain with some sleet/snow on high ground will have cleared Wales & SW England by around dinnertime, so perhaps a half decent Saturday is possible along with a fine Sunday 

Ed. Met also showing this scenario 

Edited November 8, 2019 by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

[Seasonality]

31 minutes ago, jules216 said:

@Seasonality since millennium the most similar match for current November progression more less were years 2000,2002,2008,2009,2012,2014,2018, see anomaly that quite fairly represents what is being forecast for next 2 or 3 weeks. Now scroll forward to anomaly in subsequent winters - bingo! Almost too good to be true. Uncanny similarity to @knocker day 8-14 anomaly posted above.

Thanks @jules216, I had a suspicion it may look something like that myself. Some good years for European winters in that list but also some stinkers, the analogue looks nice though. 

[jules216]

7 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Thanks @jules216, I had a suspicion it may look something like that myself. Some good years for European winters in that list but also some stinkers, the analogue looks nice though. 

Yes the really blocky and snowy winters kind of mix out the mediocre ones for our region. That is the risk when  you include many years as analogues. But even the mediocre ones 2000/01 and 2008/09 for example featured periods of blocking which profited more western then central Europe, so overall its not a bad situation. I would agree that out of 3 winter months there finally will be 1 good snowy month for the most of us, if we get lucky maybe even two

[Norrance]

A number of posts this morning are more suited to the Winter speculation and chat thread. Please use that thread for all non-directly model related chat.

Thanks.

[Methuselah]

-6C T850s into SE England at T+147!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That drizzle will sure be feeling cold!!

[feb1991blizzard]

19 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

 

16/11 Cant understand why this more NE Scandi flow isn't delivering much more in the way of ppn

 

No cold 850mb to start off with so not a steep enough lapse rate between sea and 850mb, then no deep blue colours on the 500mb heights denoting not steep enough lapse rates above 850 so clouds not topping out at stupendously high levels.

[IDO]

Looking at the latest runs, they are now firming up on the long wave pattern so we can be reasonably confident in the wider picture up to D10. Nothing bitter cold wise for the UK, but seasonal cool to cold feeling for most. The UK stuck in that trough/cut-off low means showers at times for many and mainly cold rain for low lying areas. Possibly some heavy rain in there but models differ as to the finer details.

After D9 the Pacific ridge fails and we get a flatter upstream allowing the PV to recover and become more of the driver. For the UK that means blocking highs are eased east. ATM the jet forecast to remain split so we should remain in the cooler air but again no strong upper cold feed to draw into our arena. No Atlantic barrage is a positive up to D13:

T192-T300>>> 

 

 

[swfc]

Bit of a status quo on the 6z GFS esp in fi.Dry is the key word later on hopefully.ive decided to call our eastern europe high "Jeremy"he's stubborn and won't leave.

Edited November 8, 2019 by swfc

[Man With Beard]

The extended ECM continues to avoid the slight shift in synoptics required to allow a freeze from the east - and in all honesty are pointing more and more to a continuation of persistent rain. Look at the mean pressure chart for T300:

Above average heights to the NE but merely acting as a stall and southerly shift on Atlantic systems, meaning they are directed towards us and stay longer over us. The clusters at the same time tell the same story:

The main cluster (which isn't too dissimilar to other clusters) sees the height rise to the NE, but probably doesn't allow too much influence from very cold areas, whilst stalling the trough close to our shores.

Could be a lot of flooding this month if the current charts hold.

 

[nick sussex]

Some very interesting synoptics just lacking some deeper cold to tap into .

The overall NH pattern is positive for coldies , just not quite getting the pieces in place yet to deliver some of that deeper cold .

This might still change , we still need to see the exact set up of the Euro troughing nearer the time which could make a difference .

[swfc]

9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

The extended ECM continues to avoid the slight shift in synoptics required to allow a freeze from the east - and in all honesty are pointing more and more to a continuation of persistent rain. Look at the mean pressure chart for T300:

Above average heights to the NE but merely acting as a stall and southerly shift on Atlantic systems, meaning they are directed towards us and stay longer over us. The clusters at the same time tell the same story:

The main cluster (which isn't too dissimilar to other clusters) sees the height rise to the NE, but probably doesn't allow too much influence from very cold areas, whilst stalling the trough close to our shores.

Could be a lot of flooding this month if the current charts hold.

 

Not good newsMWB .we really need a good drying period over here.just a UK high and a cold plunge to the east would suffice

Edited November 8, 2019 by swfc

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 0z ensemble mean indicates further very unsettled weather on the way and with a rather cold pool over the uk there would be snow across northern hills and perhaps some surprise snow at lower levels but with all the current flooding, these charts are ominous for further problems ahead!

 

Edited November 8, 2019 by JON SNOW

[shaky]

15 minutes ago, swfc said:

Not good newsMWB .we really need a good drying period over here.just a UK high and a cold plunge to the east would suffice

Its really hard to believe how much lack of cold air there is this year across the east of europe!!infact we are acutally quite lucky that we get  cold over the next week or 2 thanks to cold air coming in from the northwest into the uk!!it could have been much worse for us!

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Its really hard to believe how much lack of cold air there is this year across the east of europe!!infact we are acutally quite lucky that we get  cold over the next week or 2 thanks to cold air coming in from the northwest into the uk!!it could have been much worse for us!

My point is Sheffield is flooded and a high over the UK would dry us out hopefully

[MattStoke]

Yet another complete washout for the Midlands on Saturday according to the Euro4 model. Rain and hill snow clearing Wales and South West England by early afternoon but affecting the Midlands for much of the day as the front stalls and pivots with the rain sliding south eastward.

Edited November 8, 2019 by MattStoke

[mb018538]

32 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

The Ecm 0z ensemble mean indicates further very unsettled weather on the way and with a rather cold pool over the uk there would be snow across northern hills and perhaps some surprise snow at lower levels but with all the current flooding, these charts are ominous for further problems ahead!

 

The air isn't especially cold, 850s of around 0 to -2c are close to the average for this time of the year:



The main concern is just the relentless train of low pressure systems across the UK.

This doesn't look great for the next 10 days. Further flooding to be expected.

[knocker]

Nice depiction of the approaching frontal system and the blasted wodge of cloud that has hung around over Cornwall this  morning

[swfc]

1 hour ago, JON SNOW said:

The Ecm 0z ensemble mean indicates further very unsettled weather on the way and with a rather cold pool over the uk there would be snow across northern hills and perhaps some surprise snow at lower levels but with all the current flooding, these charts are ominous for further problems ahead!

 

Were not looking good are we looking at jet?hopefully wel get a a block over the UK after ten days otherwise can see some epic flooding in our area

[Geordiesnow]

Feels like I'm looking at deja vu with the models with the ECM and GFS going for the Atlantic ridging again bringing the risk of chilly easterlies whereas the UKMO looks flatter and perhaps eventually would lead more towards westerlies. Giving how things havee been going, I'm skeptical about the ridges, the ECM for years does tend to overdo ridges and they usually get more watered down nearer the time. 

Whatever the output though, its a chilly one if albeit nothing too significantly below average. 

[weatherguy]

Another time, we'd be looking at "snowmageddon" with the positioning of the Euro trough and the Scandi high - a damn shame about the placement of the Siberian cold pool!  The +192h are akin to having the tap on your favourite barrel of ale being open, only to find there's nothing in said barrel apart from some rather miserable rainwater...

[ALL ABOARD]

15 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Feels like I'm looking at deja vu with the models with the ECM and GFS going for the Atlantic ridging again bringing the risk of chilly easterlies whereas the UKMO looks flatter and perhaps eventually would lead more towards westerlies. Giving how things havee been going, I'm skeptical about the ridges, the ECM for years does tend to overdo ridges and they usually get more watered down nearer the time. 

Whatever the output though, its a chilly one if albeit nothing too significantly below average. 

Only have to look back at this time last year to realise it can all change in the blink of an eye.



As we all know that's not what transpired.