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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

ECM very GFS esque at day ten.heights a plenty so hopefully drier and brighter.nothing else either way imo

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, swfc said:

ECM very GFS esque at day ten.heights a plenty so hopefully drier and brighter.nothing else either way imo

Im just wanting some dry weather now..

EC looks drier longer term, i think.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

An, uninspired ec I heard you say...

However remember if this was the only model showing its 12z synoptics..and all other raws ...showing pancake zonality....you'd be salivating at future possibilities/prospects!!!=

Don't get to spoiled...too soon!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

An, uninspired ec I heard you say...

However remember if this was the only model showing its 12z synoptics..and all other raws ...showing pancake zonality....you'd be salivating at future possibilities/prospects!!!=

Don't get to spoiled...too soon!!!!

I don't know the future prospects TI,if I did I'd be a wealthy man for sure?!!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
12 minutes ago, Catacol said:

It’s also what’s helping force an extended wave 2 impact on the vortex, something which gives us potential benefits down the line. Can’t make an omelette without breaking eggs...

Yes, you would rather have it further North then it could serve both purposes, you might be able to get a chunk of the siberian vortex sent westward around the back like all the classic Easterlies, but you certainly would rather have it there than flattening out completely and sinking, that said though we have seen these situations where the vortex has been slow to get going in recent years and it hasn't ended up delivering anything, just delaying the PV developing properly and giving less time to break it down, but i guess we have to just accept last year as very very bad luck, surely if we can get an SSW that early again, then we wont end up getting zip 2 years running.

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
11 minutes ago, Catacol said:

It’s also what’s helping force an extended wave 2 impact on the vortex, something which gives us potential benefits down the line. Can’t make an omelette without breaking eggs...

I dont know but frustrating pattern short term,will the wave 2 be enough down the line? Then what if we only get a displacement or split with cold displaced in to eastern Asia or North America? I would be lying if I wouldnt say this eastern Europe isnt concerning already,its basically unmovable right now and it can stay there for a very long time,is there enough forcing to reshuffle these anomalies under persistent -AAM? I am thinking of early winter prospects now,dont want to rely on hopefull split in January. There have been very few starts to winter where Europe has been really cold recently, perhaps last time 2012. Ever since that winter eastern Europe has suffered same destiny as UK in early winter with anomalous high pressure,not only winter but other seasons too,almost like building this island of heat like north Africa or Egypt/UAE, crazy

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

This weekend could be one of the rare times in November where it's actually warmer in Moscow than London with some unusually warm air arriving in the east.

EIyvUDAWsAA5oZ8.thumb.png.a420fcd5759d8b58d54d8e2bcf05d0b6.pngEIyvUDIWsAMvlvE.thumb.png.350274b1b5eea755ded0322309ebf742.png

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Gfs ensembles highlight a north south split quite clearly with southern and central parts quite a lot wetter than Scotland I'm using my location but still tells the story it also shows pretty good agreement for temperatures for Scotland but more uncertainty over England although both show a trent atm towards average for the longer term but extended range stuff atm.

555095410_ens_image(24).thumb.png.4ce5e4908875f2b6b34bcf1b3cd88b1e.png

1431505382_ens_image(23).thumb.png.df9f95cc55a3c4aa38603c3f2fc70089.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

This weekend could be one of the rare times in November where it's actually warmer in Moscow than London with some unusually warm air arriving in the east.

EIyvUDAWsAA5oZ8.thumb.png.a420fcd5759d8b58d54d8e2bcf05d0b6.pngEIyvUDIWsAMvlvE.thumb.png.350274b1b5eea755ded0322309ebf742.png

That shows well the balancing out of weather patterns.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

The Last 2 ECM means in FI are very similar as you’d expect, but the latest has weaker PV over Northern Canada and stronger PV over near Alaska, so I’ll take that as a better run for longevity of colder opportunities. To be honest I reckon it’s pointless looking beyond day 7 for anything close to accurate; but it’s fun all the same!! 

FF012916-C990-4CB2-BE52-BF1701099612.png

2FF6E682-73AC-45C0-ADBD-23D84FEB5413.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

The 12z ECM mean remains on the cold side! If anything there seems to be more in the way of colder runs than last night.. Long may this colder theme continue. Until the next run....cheers gang....

EDH0-144.gif

EDH0-168.gif

EDH0-216.gif

EDH0-240.gif

graphe_ens3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Czech Republic
  • Location: Czech Republic
12 minutes ago, jules216 said:

I dont know but frustrating pattern short term,will the wave 2 be enough down the line? Then what if we only get a displacement or split with cold displaced in to eastern Asia or North America? I would be lying if I wouldnt say this eastern Europe isnt concerning already,its basically unmovable right now and it can stay there for a very long time,is there enough forcing to reshuffle these anomalies under persistent -AAM? I am thinking of early winter prospects now,dont want to rely on hopefull split in January. There have been very few starts to winter where Europe has been really cold recently, perhaps last time 2012. Ever since that winter eastern Europe has suffered same destiny as UK in early winter with anomalous high pressure,not only winter but other seasons too,almost like building this island of heat like north Africa or Egypt/UAE, crazy

Another year has passed and it is still the same old story, isn't it jules? The switch has been flipped in April 2013 and we have been stuck since then. 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The main features of the ext EPS this evening are the intense east European ridge into the eastern Arctic; a very strong north Pacific jet running south of the Aleutian low and then  around renewed ridging in western North America.before swinging south of a weaker vortex/trough. All of this results in a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard to the trough in the east which is now stretching south to North Africa as all longitudinal systems movement has been successfully blocked by the aforementioned ridge. Ergo still portending unsettled with temps a tad below average

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4337600.thumb.png.3fd02faa3a370c10841521c89f75fb35.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-uk-t2m_c_anom_5day-4337600.thumb.png.fe8c78b7275b0400624c81d400946184.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
20 minutes ago, Catacol said:

I agree that we weren’t lucky last year. We got about 85% of the way towards the cold blast the models kept seeing, but the split ended up being a bit too far west, and SSTs in the Atlantic conspired with the very cold air spilling out of America to prevent sub tropical ridging on the back of some solid tropical forcing to create the high lat block. I think it was a very fine balanced thing...and we got close but not close enough to tip that balance in favour of cold.

I don’t see our current kind of mobility in November as a bad thing at all. For a start it isn’t conventional mild zonality - the trough over Europe is helping keepthe trajectory of the Atlantic assault quite steep with residual heights to the north remaining in play, and we have heights to the east in the right place to upset the vortex. Over on the other side of the globe the North Pacific ridge is set to topple, and a period of Aleutian Low action will also help fire warmth into the vortex. Later in the season what we need is a block to the north/NW/NE that can cause a reverse flow and bring in continental cold and this is very hard to achieve when the vortex dominates. So all remains good as far as I can see, and anyone hopeful of widespread snow right now is hoping for the near impossible. Perfect Synoptics right now in most places would bring nothing but drab, cold rain....so let’s “enjoy” the current setup that is about as good as it could be to set the vortex up for a fall and create the background conditions that could bring something special when winter proper is here.

I also think as well that SSW's are much better the faster they propagate downward, my confidence was slowly draining away the longer it took, also i think you need a very wide split like 09 or 18, although it could be said the 18 split was actually too wide with the canadian segment too far W, thus there was no stopper there allowing air temperatures usually reserved for Eastern Europe and the polar regions to engage with tropical air to the South West of Ireland and the pattern was flattened in about 36 hours with a huge storm coming up from the SW.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Not a bad set of ensembles, from today's GEFS 12Z...? There's nothing that suggests Snowmageddon may be all that imminent -- but there's nowt indicating any major setbacks, either::oldgrin:

prmslLeicestershire.png   t850Leicestershire.png

t2mLeicestershire.png   prcpLeicestershire.png

We're poised and ready to go: image.thumb.png.25c66f6bed889009a51755863a9b497f.png:oldgood:

 

Ensemble scatter looks like 14/11 is still going to be the day. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

For me I think the troughing over Europe is slowly going to fade into next week with a more familiar November setup taking hold...

The jury is still out on what happens next  but for the moment it's cold rain and indeed feeling very cold at times. It's been the coldest November I can remember for a long time....let's hope it isn't all a waste come Winter proper

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
43 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

For me I think the troughing over Europe is slowly going to fade into next week with a more familiar November setup taking hold...

The jury is still out on what happens next  but for the moment it's cold rain and indeed feeling very cold at times. It's been the coldest November I can remember for a long time....let's hope it isn't all a waste come Winter proper

Yep, cold rain, windy on occasions - been looking similar for last 2 weeks imho and for the forseeable. A December 2015 would be most welcome.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
43 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Nope. Cold rain!? Ugh!!

Will hopefully be cold snow by then.....  We can only hope!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Not been around to discuss the models for most of today, but decent northerly teeing up on the pub run, T174:

image.thumb.jpg.c43e4461236c8f1be4a1b3d144c87d4b.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ba719879aa36decc4888b33d789a8d41.jpg

And a sliced trop vortex to boot...

 

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