Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Agreement with GFS 

My concern is that temps (Cumbria) aren't playing ball as expected.

Nothing crazy in the charts but still 4-5c by day, this is much colder than average for even cumbria, anywhere above 300m would see snow . This isn’t unusual for cumbria for a day or 2 in Nov, but we are talking about the next 2 weeks staying cold. 

[booferking]

5 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Agreement with GFS 

My concern is that temps (Cumbria) aren't playing ball as expected.

Side by side 144hr UKMO in a better position than GFS heading to the 168hr chart.

[sundog]

1 hour ago, swfc said:

sorry if I've read your post wrong knocker but with the stalling systems would that be WAA heading north and affecting the PV,tia

Back in 2009 after the very wet nov I think it was thought that the very unsettled weather of that month had something to do with what followed - the cold spell mid Dec-mid Jan.

[knocker]

The very slow movement of this front is certainly a concern in some areas

Edited November 7, 2019 by knocker

[Ali1977]

I’ve mentioned it a few times but isn’t it this that’s scuppering any chance of easterlies ? It just stops the cold coming from Siberia by pushing north, pushing any cold feed into the arctic which in turn blocks off any WAA  building from Greenland area?

 

Edited November 7, 2019 by Ali1977

[swfc]

10 minutes ago, knocker said:

The very slow movement of this front is certainly a concern in some areas

We have flooding in Sheffield knocker and river levels are getting very high

[Jordan S]

Things are getting heated in here I see. We've got plenty of time for some decent cold and snow the models could show the most extreme cold and snow pattern available but if that's always mostly beyond 240hr then not worth the stress or excitement (too much) that just includes every scenerario the pattern currently is unusual and is very interesting from a coldies perspective nevertheless.

Anyway back to the near future the snow that was showing for Scotland for Saturday isn't showing so much the Arpege and Gfs models for example show the frontal system coming in stalling then sliding southeast not bringing the precipitation into most if not all of Scotland therefore mostly dry but what's more of note is another bout of very wet weather for Wales and particularly England again.

Arpege.. 

GFS.. 

GFS precipitation type forecast. 

Ofcourse this evenings output could push the rain further east again giving what would be mostly snow for Scotland first then sliding south. Accumulations even in Scotland will be mostly on higher ground but wouldn't completely rule out a covering to lower levels if this system manages to push into Scotland. The north of England may also see some snow but mostly on hills. 

Edited November 7, 2019 by jordan smith

[swfc]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I’ve mentioned it a few times but isn’t it this that’s scuppering any chance of easterlies ? It just stops the cold coming from Siberia by pushing north, blocking off any WAA  building from Greenland area?

 

Yes and we end up in a sort of cool col its evident on numerous runs

Edited November 7, 2019 by swfc

[IDO]

A very blocked run on the GFS 12z with the UK from T108- T264+ stuck within a cut-off low (trough) that warms out. Blocks every which way but none directing the cold flow to the UK so relying on pulses of cold to keep the cold pool cool over us.

T108>>> T264: 

No change in that two wave attack in the Atlantic and Eastern Europe/Russia, so that really does preclude us from a strong sustained cold feed.

Not sure what happens post D11, as we seem to lose the Pacific wave so upstream a flattening of the pattern?

[swfc]

14 minutes ago, IDO said:

A very blocked run on the GFS 12z with the UK from T108- T264+ stuck within a cut-off low (trough) that warms out. Blocks every which way but none directing the cold flow to the UK so relying on pulses of cold to keep the cold pool cool over us.

T108>>> T264: 

No change in that two wave attack in the Atlantic and Eastern Europe/Russia, so that really does preclude us from a strong sustained cold feed.

Not sure what happens post D11, as we seem to lose the Pacific wave so upstream a flattening of the pattern?

Yep stuck in the middle with you!!great to look at mind going forward 

[weatherguy]

29 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I’ve mentioned it a few times but isn’t it this that’s scuppering any chance of easterlies ? It just stops the cold coming from Siberia by pushing north, pushing any cold feed into the arctic which in turn blocks off any WAA  building from Greenland area?

 

To offer a different view, would be that it is aiding the stasis of low heights in Southern Europe which is, in turn, likely to promote ridge-building in the Atlantic.  It is however, like you say, blocking off a cold-feed from the usual Siberian cold pool.  Best scenario from here would be LP remaining to our south, heights remaining robust to the west and driving more LP SSE across the UK for a period while that block is either forced back South, or pulled NW over time, with the cold pool being pulled around its flank.  It's true though that if it stagnates, the UK will be left in a cold but wet situation.  Seen far worse positions for the UK in November before though!

[bluearmy]

The se euro block has been trailed in a few l r models for Nov into Dec

the gfs op shows that a possible consequence of the lower heights upstream and removal of the Alaskan /Aleutian ridge is that the Atlantic runs out of steam somewhat .....

[booferking]

Strat warming not to be ignored..

[Methuselah]

Today's GFS 12Z Operational run is clearly stacked with potential!!!

   

And it's never too early for a ramp: 

[knocker]

If we ignore the upstream vicissitudes of the North American troughs which promotes Mid Atlantic amplification then the mean GEFS is still moving towards a position previously indicated. But all of this maneuvering is leaking somewhat colder air over the UK

Edited November 7, 2019 by knocker

[booferking]

GEM similar to the UKMO to the way the high holds the low in the ESB lets see where it goes from here.

 

[Ali1977]

The pick of the ENS , and winter is primed

[mb018538]

19 minutes ago, booferking said:

Strat warming not to be ignored..

It's been there for days, doesn't seem to be getting closer though...

[Panayiotis]

8 minutes ago, booferking said:

GEM similar to the UKMO to the way the high holds the low in the ESB lets see where it goes from here.

 

That pocket of heights to the E of Greenland is something that needs to be watched closely, if we can get that low leaving the ESB to drive heights northward  we could easily see a linkup between the two leaving us in a very blocked pattern... eg ICON 12z

[booferking]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It's been there for days, doesn't seem to be getting closer though...

2 day blip full steam ahead choo choo give us a like @Sceptical 

[Geordiesnow]

It's amazing too see the transformation where next week had chilly(not cold) easterlies and instead we get chilly westerlies. Goes to show how an outlook can change very quickly so never read too much into every run. The trends are for an Arctic high to be develop, attempted ridging in the Atlantic and for the UK to stay on the cold side of the jet. 

Certainly no real snow chances on the horizon though unless the ridging in the Atlantic starts to sustain and we pull in a northerly. Easterlies are very rarely cold enough to pull in snow showers at this time of year. 

[Ali1977]

Look at that near Newfoundland, could be a good 168.

[shaky]

Hmm ecm looking the outlier tonight when you compare it gfs and ukmo upstream!!not saying its wrong but probably unlikely!!ecm was wrong with the low around greenland around 96 hours last night!!it had it west of greenland but today at 72 hours it has it south east of greenland!!

[tight isobar]

Nowt wrong with ecm

Need some more barreling Iberian stabilizers such as..

The rest is unwinding nicely..

The northern hemisphere synoptics...likely speaking for themselves...as we get latter into the 12 run..

Some KABOOM charts not far away now..me thinks..

[Methuselah]

Not a bad set of ensembles, from today's GEFS 12Z...? There's nothing that suggests Snowmageddon may be all that imminent -- but there's nowt indicating any major setbacks, either:

   

   

We're poised and ready to go: 

 

Edited November 7, 2019 by Ed Stone