Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

Polar Maritime

By Polar Maritime
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share

Recommended Posts

Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted

EC clusters keep dangling carrots

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019110700_288.

D12 — Scandi High cluster back up to 60% (I usually like to see 70% before calling it a significant trend) - ridge to the NE, trough to the S, should be a good chance of an extended period with an Influence from between NE and SE - but previous potential not quite turning into reality, so still a wait and see situation. 

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Quite a set of chillier ensembles from the GFS 6Z, a few stonkers in there also. Some even showing heights over Greenland and scandy!! Now that would be every coldies ideal Xmas present!! Much water to flow under the bridge just yet! I still feel that perhaps we are moving away from that Wstly dominated December though! Perhaps colder spells will also be just as prevalent. Could be worse peeps.... A hell of alot worse. 

gens-1-0-288.png

gens-1-1-288.png

gens-6-0-276.png

gens-6-1-264.png

gens-13-0-384.png

gens-16-0-348.png

gens-16-1-324.png

gens-17-0-372.png

gens-17-1-360.png

Edited by Mattwolves
  • Like 14
Link to comment
Share on other sites
swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
1 hour ago, knocker said:

I can't help but wonder, with the NW Atlantic one big baroclinic zone. whether all of this quite intense cyclogenisis, which is set to continue but not track that far east, will have any wave impact on the SPV/

sorry if I've read your post wrong knocker but with the stalling systems would that be WAA heading north and affecting the PV,tia

Link to comment
Share on other sites
knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

 

27 minutes ago, swfc said:

sorry if I've read your post wrong knocker but with the stalling systems would that be WAA heading north and affecting the PV,tia

No swfc but in the same ball park  I was just wondering if they start creeping towards the east coast of Greenland whether it might effect the Greenland - Scandinavia dipole and set off some anticyclonic wave breaking which can enhance vertically-propagating wave activity as in a recent paper by Lee, et al

Edited by knocker
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, knocker said:

 

No swfc  I was just wondering if they start creeping towards the east coast of Greenland whether it might effect the Greenland - Scandinavia dipole and set off some anticyclonic wave breaking which can enhance vertically-propagating wave activity as in a recent paper by Lee, et al

Bruce lee? 
I have no idea what this means , I’m going to take a punt that you are hoping for a big freeze and this is what you’re thinking could happen

Im looking fwd to the 12zs, have a feeling another upgrade for the coldies is on the way, more blocking anyway, setting us up for something much better last week of Nov. 

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Yarmy Maestro

Yarmy

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
Posted (edited)

This is the paper @knocker is referring to, I think:

Abrupt Stratospheric Vortex Weakening Associated With North Atlantic Anticyclonic Wave Breaking

spacer.png

6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Error - Cookies Turned Off

AGUPUBS.ONLINELIBRARY.WILEY.COM
 

 

 

Edited by Yarmy
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted
2 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

This is the paper, I think:

Abrupt Stratospheric Vortex Weakening Associated With North Atlantic Anticyclonic Wave Breaking

spacer.png

6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Error - Cookies Turned Off

AGUPUBS.ONLINELIBRARY.WILEY.COM
 

 

 

Yes. Lorenzo posted a link to he full paper in the strat. thread

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, knocker said:

 

No swfc but in the same ball park  I was just wondering if they start creeping towards the east coast of Greenland whether it might effect the Greenland - Scandinavia dipole and set off some anticyclonic wave breaking which can enhance vertically-propagating wave activity as in a recent paper by Lee, et al

Thanks.imo I still think anything exiting the eastern seaboard needs to head up the west coast of Greenland for any major building of heights from a cold perspective.for what's it's worth the heights to the east will leave the UK in the firing line for a very wet November thanks to our friends in the big apple.excuse my spelling I'm partially sited

Edited by swfc
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Big Dave Enthusiast

Big Dave

Posted
  • Location: Ashford Kent
  • Weather Preferences: 1. Clear skies 2. Cold 3. Snow 4. Hot
  • Location: Ashford Kent
Posted
4 hours ago, PerfectStorm said:

Too far off to be particularly confident but we're in no-mans land here where not a lot is happening, which, I guess, is why people are a little despondent. If benign conditions are your thing, with cold nights, frost fog and sunny spells, then this will suit you. 

Temperatures will struggle to get much above freezing for many, days. 

image.thumb.png.554bd6055bd325972309070f701ae945.png

That’s exactly my thing! 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Popular Post
Posted

The 12z ICON finishes like this

iconnh-0-180.thumb.png.3c8a6645a8ec72d4774b425bb0ed766f.png

WOW.

  • Like 19
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The 12z ICON finishes like this

iconnh-0-180.thumb.png.3c8a6645a8ec72d4774b425bb0ed766f.png

WOW.

Look at that , that WAA into Greenland would surely reinforce the arctic heights and drag in a long cold flow from deep Siberia? 

C2EEF1B8-98D0-43E2-A7C6-637B0B215E96.jpeg

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Look at that , that WAA into Greenland would surely reinforce the arctic heights and drag in a long cold flow from deep Siberia? 

C2EEF1B8-98D0-43E2-A7C6-637B0B215E96.jpeg

It looks great but the block to the east will scupper it imo

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, swfc said:

It looks great but the block to the east will scupper it imo

The one near Afghan? 

2BD50101-DCBA-4222-85DD-4A4A6F8319CD.jpeg

Edited by Ali1977
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Popular Post
Posted

Did anyone order a cross polar flow !

Quite amazing looking ICON .  I expect bedlam will break out in here if that’s replicated by the other models tonight .

 

  • Like 12
Link to comment
Share on other sites
swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
Just now, Ali1977 said:

The one near Afghan? 

Nope the one heading to join the Atlantic high via scan and cutting off any cold from the north east.uk will be under a mlb imo

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Did anyone order a cross polar flow !

Quite amazing looking ICON .  I expect bedlam will break out in here if that’s replicated by the other models tonight .

 

Safe to say it won’t nick .....

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, swfc said:

Nope the one heading to join the Atlantic high via scan and cutting off any cold from the north east.uk will be under a mlb imo

I’m not sure I understand . The block is already a HLB and is being supported by low pressure to the south . Pressure is rising ne wards if you follow from day 7 to 8 .

My only criticism of the ICON is the low could be further se but apart from that it’s really a great run .

Edited by nick sussex
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs already slightly better!low.pressure further south through the uk and into europe!!

Better around Greenland already , bottom image the latest and better heights by day 5

97A79E81-EBA1-44C2-887C-D0ED190032BD.png

F0DF3AF8-6C3F-44AB-BC8D-99248B27559A.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Iceaxecrampon Veteran

Iceaxecrampon

Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
Posted

12z GFS

Thursday 14th at T+165 is the one to watch.12z looking promising already.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I’m not sure I understand . The block is already a HLB and is being supported by low pressure to the south . Pressure is rising ne wards if you follow from day 7 to 8 .

My only criticism of the ICON is the low could be further se but apart from that it’s really a great run .

Sorry nick meant MLB .my eye sight is poor

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Iceaxecrampon Veteran

Iceaxecrampon

Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, booferking said:

UKMO

UN144-21 (1).gif

Agreement with GFS 

My concern is that temps (Cumbria) aren't playing ball as expected.

t2mCumbria.thumb.png.69eb2586f510247dd7594cda0399b920.png

Edited by Iceaxecrampon
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Latest Weather News

    Chilly with an increasing risk of frost

    Once Monday's band of rain fades, the next few days will be drier. However, it will feel cool, even cold, in the breeze or under gloomy skies, with an increasing risk of frost. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts | 
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Dubai Floods: Another Warning Sign for Desert Regions?

    The flooding in the Middle East desert city of Dubai earlier in the week followed record-breaking rainfall. It doesn't rain very often here like other desert areas, but like the deadly floods in Libya last year showed, these rain events are likely becoming more extreme due to global warming. View the full blog here

    Nick F
    Nick F | 
    Latest weather updates from Netweather 2

    Week Ahead: Cool but largely dry until later in the week, when low pressure returns

    We keep a chilly northerly flow going through much of the coming week, especially noticeable in the east. Cloud and rain spreading south Monday, but after that, most places largely dry until later in the week, when it looks to turn more showery. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts | 
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...