Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[swfc]

Better looking GFS 6z.better heights to the nnw and better 850s.will it change later,probably

[Weathizard]

Nothing of real interest for me right now looking at the models I’m honestly just hoping for a stop to this relentless rain and dreariness, it’s been unbelievable down here not seen such consistent rain and dullness for a long time. I’d love some crisp and clear winter days.

[Eskimo]

How anyone can't get excited over this chart, at least the general synoptics, I don't know. Yes, this particular frame would give us a very raw and rainy day. However, look how much high pressure is around, so much potential! We normally see deep low after deep low modelled this time of year. 

That hemispheric profile is stunning for the time of year. 

Edited November 7, 2019 by PerfectStorm

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Morning all, here is snow dreamers chart of the morning with cold pool slap over Blighty ! At least this model has been consistent with its outputs out to 240t , but of course not necessary correct but nice to see. However, would be great for snow fans if this was to prove correct .

C

The latest GFS op run ,switches back to a more amplification, similar to the above picture being shown for a couple of days from GEM. Looks like cold pool development formation ( 528 dam) in vicinity of the British Isles  by day10.  Will we get another switch this evening ? or consensus of agreement with the main models ? Our team still backing a more amplified outlook and think ECM run this evening will swing back that way. We will see.

C

[Ali1977]

A big flip back to a blocked pattern in the NH, expect more flips but all still pointing to little in the way of PV. There is no reason why this couldn’t end up bringing very cold weather late Nov and follow on into december . 
what we haven’t seen is any cold sets of ENS, I mean grouping below -5c 850s , more ears and eyes may switch on should that start happening. 

Edited November 7, 2019 by Ali1977

[Methuselah]

I detect a developing stonker:                                                                               

Edited November 7, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Eskimo]

Too far off to be particularly confident but we're in no-mans land here where not a lot is happening, which, I guess, is why people are a little despondent. If benign conditions are your thing, with cold nights, frost fog and sunny spells, then this will suit you. 

Temperatures will struggle to get much above freezing for many, many days. 

Edited November 7, 2019 by PerfectStorm

[Tim Bland]

Chance of some snow @ day 7 on the latest GFS especially on any higher ground...

[Methuselah]

Lovely charts at T291: a traditional late-autumn mixture of rain, sleet, snow, ice and freezing fog!!?

   

Edited November 7, 2019 by Ed Stone

[swfc]

Really unusual run from the GFS 6z.So much high pressure across the NH and europe in November has to be rare?UK in no man's land granted but interesting none the less

Edited November 7, 2019 by swfc

[cheshire snow]

55 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Too far off to be particularly confident but we're in no-mans land here where not a lot is happening, which, I guess, is why people are a little despondent. If benign conditions are your thing, with cold nights, frost fog and sunny spells, then this will suit you. 

Temperatures will struggle to get much above freezing for many, many days. 

Yes Please Bank.

Cold nights frost fog and sunny spells proper Autumn Weather

Or Cold rain no comparison really.

C.S

[feb1991blizzard]

How about number 11 for a hemispheric profile!!

[Methuselah]

12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

How about number 11 for a hemispheric profile!!

The TPV does a 'Tom Daley'?

And now for the 06Z GEFS ensembles -- maxes mostly between around 4-7C, and things a bit up-in-the air, long term?

   

   

 

Edited November 7, 2019 by Ed Stone

[johnholmes]

ref this comment

Temperatures will struggle to get much above freezing for many, many days. 

 

Are you serious or having a laugh?

 

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

ref this comment

Temperatures will struggle to get much above freezing for many, many days. 

 

Are you serious or having a laugh?

 

There are lots of days in that run where the MAX's are around 2-3c over a good part of the country

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

There are lots of days in that run where the MAX's are around 2-3c over a good part of the country

Yes Cold   Night time temps below freezing  for many.     I expect his post was about  night time temperatures   anyway as oposed to day time.    

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yes Cold   Night time temps below freezing  for many.     I expect his post was about  night time temperatures   anyway as oposed to day time.    

To be fair to John, the other poster did mention many DAYS, so its how you interpret it because i think there could be places which struggle to get above freezing and quite a lot of them, and also whether you consider 2 or so degrees to be MUCH above freezing but that said, i don't think it was a ridiculous post from the initial poster.

[Iceaxecrampon]

GFS 06Z

BANK....!

But a week is a long way off - stunning mid November Chart

Nearly a full day of low level sleet 

 

Edited November 7, 2019 by Iceaxecrampon

[johnholmes]

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To be fair to John, the other poster did mention many DAYS, so its how you interpret it because i think there could be places which struggle to get above freezing and quite a lot of them, and also whether you consider 2 or so degrees to be MUCH above freezing but that said, i don't think it was a ridiculous post from the initial poster.

Oh to be honest my major query was the 'days and days, but never mind me, enjoy the fun of chasing something that, you know deep down, is pretty unlikely to occur for days and days for 10 days from now. Not even end Nov 2010 managed that in this part of the world.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

Oh to be honest my major query was the 'days and days, but never mind me, enjoy the fun of chasing something that, you know deep down, is pretty unlikely to occur for days and days for 10 days from now. Not even end Nov 2010 managed that in this part of the world.

At least there's not much sign of the usual sw'ly zephyrs, the models have more of a wintry look to them than one would expect in early November so I'm happy!

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Oh to be honest my major query was the 'days and days, but never mind me, enjoy the fun of chasing something that, you know deep down, is pretty unlikely to occur for days and days for 10 days from now. Not even end Nov 2010 managed that in this part of the world.

It did in this part of the world - and even managed a low of -20c.

[nick sussex]

A lot of messing about by the models with last nights downturn for coldies followed by a more positive start today .

Its very hard to have much confidence until they settle down . I think we’re in a holding pattern ! There are certainly more things in favour of colder weather but the exact route to that still needs to be resolved .

 

[tight isobar]

On 05/11/2019 at 15:34, tight isobar said:

The Pac ridge..has been for the last few years...an excitement for early signals..

And had 'ultimate'  been the downplaying signal when angular momentum-}and breach overriding of wave activities..

However this term there are many more spaners..in the clockwise momentum.

 

And signal breach that coincide with relapse and positivity at the placement formats...whereas previous...these have been counter synced.

=even a bypass warming layer event -visible @10 hpa..is a reference to execute of the TPV..

Were In a different ball park here....

And LRF cast/models...are imo behind the phase...and that may soon rear.. in exaction!!!

 

So in the meantime...decipher of raw data...imo is advisable!!!

Remember...#@fill..then @drain..

 

#Large lobe vortex...

The feeding machine...I said this last season..and was proved incorrectly....I'm confident much moreso...this 1 !!!!

The trop..polar vortex is under mash-mode!!=or so some latter frame outs would have it...that pac-ridge..is of relax state...as the eb..n'flow into polar plots...continue there desired synoptics..

 

Once again...thats some pattern emerging..n-hemisphercaly!!!

Let's get it loaded...then look for placement exaction...

Then await the spill!!!.....@perhaps.

Edited November 7, 2019 by tight isobar

[winterof79]

Very interesting set of peturbs for 192z

Not least the hemispheric profile and the positioning if low heights in our vicinity. 

Even the mean 

 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=11&ech=192

Edited November 7, 2019 by winterof79

[knocker]

I can't help but wonder, with the NW Atlantic one big baroclinic zone. whether all of this quite intense cyclogenisis, which is set to continue but not track that far east, will have any wave impact on the SPV/