Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[Kentspur]

Not all ensembles going for below normal zonal winds. This now shows how inaccurate it is this far out. However still more support for a big fall in zonal winds overall at the moment

[Mapantz]

There's your stormy outlier..

I used Aberdeenshire as the GFS OP showed the center of the low pressure to be around there.

[Ali1977]

Once again FI has plenty of arctic blocking, not helping us just yet but interesting all the same. The PV over Canada, Greenland just can’t get its act together just yet, and as long as that’s the case then a few tweaks in the short time frame can have massive consequences in FI - so lots of different outcomes in the next few days I reckon. Oh and signs of strat warming again!!! 

Obviously a few outliers, but the FI mean on the GEFS is a pretty accurate representation of many.

Edited November 7, 2019 by Ali1977

[knocker]

The North Atlantic 300mb wind profile and surface analysis for midnight and the Camborne sounding (potentially unstable to 20, 000ft)

Currently the country is under the umbrella of a low pressure area so quite windy in places, but the main concern is the area of heavy rain associated with the occlusion which comes to a halt across northern England which could cause some issues. Behind the front frequent squally showers will sweep across south west England and south Wales whilst there will also be some more persistent rain over Scotland courtesy of another occlusion A rather cold day.

The heavy rain continuing for a while tonight over the north of England and north Wales before easing and sliding south. Becoming less windy with mist/fog patches south of this but clearer with widespread frost N. Ireland and Scotland

The cloud and rain will clear to the south through Friday and once any mist and fog has cleared it will be a much better day than of late with plenty of sunny interval and light winds. But another trough has tracked east south of Greenland and the occlusion associated with this is edging east west of Ireland

The front continues it's journey over Friday night and through Saturday so after a clear and cold start to the day rain will effect most places with snow on the higher ground in the north A cold and quite unpleasant day

The rain and any snow will clear over Saturday night and although bits and pieces of the front are still around Sunday should be a cold day with sunny intervals. But as can be seen another intense upper low has tracked into the NW Atlantic a with a deep surface low over the tip of Greenland

By Monday the low is filling in the southern Denmark Straits as the strong jet hits the buffers of the European ridge resulting in the associated waving front struggling to traverse the country. But after a bright and frosty start to the day it will bring patchy rain to many areas

 

Edited November 7, 2019 by knocker

[tinybill]

fantasty world  at 180  hr it looking it could go 2  ways!! if this was about 3-4   weeks on !!!

[booferking]

1 minute ago, tinybill said:

fantasty world  at 180  hr it looking it could go 2  ways!! if this was about 3-4   weeks on !!!

Gem joins the party also.

[knocker]

According to the gfs the overview by Wednesday is anonymously high pressure ridging across the Pole; with a  cold Arctic plunge over North America with the trough conduit east to the UK. I think I will leave it there

[knocker]

The ext GEFS this morning has the ever expanding east European ridge into the Arctic and the developing Aleutian low adjacent to the vortex/trough northern Canada,Thus still a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard but diverging in the eastern Atlantic, courtesy of the aforementioned ridge and the trough now aligned down to North Africa. The surface analysis remains tricky with temps a tad below average

[knocker]

Neatly covers it

[bluearmy]

17 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ext GEFS this morning has the ever expanding east European ridge into the Arctic and the developing Aleutian low adjacent to the vortex/trough northern Canada,Thus still a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard but diverging in the eastern Atlantic, courtesy of the aforementioned ridge and the trough now aligned down to North Africa. The surface analysis remains tricky with temps a tad below average

It may not be a good day to take too much from gfs 00z Op week 2 data hemispherically (inc strat) as the op is ultra keen on an Aleutian upper ridge whereas the  gefs trends to a trough as the run progresses ...... current continuity guidance is on the side of the trough 

Edited November 7, 2019 by bluearmy

[knocker]

20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It may not be a good day to take too much from gfs 00z Op week 2 data hemispherically (inc strat) as the op is ultra keen on an Aleutian upper ridge whereas the  gefs trends to a trough as the run progresses ...... current continuity guidance is on the side of the trough 

I agree, which is mainly why I didn't look any further than I did

[northwestsnow]

The flow across the Atlantic is just relentless, little chance of any stable HP in our vicinity for quite a while unfortunately...

[knocker]

The ecm at T192 is not a million miles from where we are now

[carinthian]

11 hours ago, IDO said:

I wish I still had the faith of those D9-D10 ECM op runs that show a pumped up HP compared to their mean! However, those days are long gone and my expectation is there will be a meeting of minds by GFS and ECM tomorrow, where they will meet somewhere in the middle.

Though one day the ECM may surprise me!

Spot on @IDO that looks the case this morning. However, note GEM holding its position. All very volatile post 144t, so may be best not look any further . Still rather unusual dynamics in the atmosphere going on at the moment. Great model watching to see how it all evolves. Cheers .

 C

[mountain shadow]

As per yesterday.  Copious Arctic blocking , unfortunately at our latitude all the peaks and troughs are in the wrong place.

If the Arctic blocking continues then surely the dice will fall.

[knocker]

Nothing particularly constructive to add vis the ext mean EPS

[bluearmy]

11 minutes ago, knocker said:

Nothing particularly constructive to add vis the ext mean EPS

The hemispheric low anomoly link up now complete away from the W Russian block

How will that affect our upstream Canadian fella ?? 

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 0z mean is cold and unsettled (coldest further north) and there's certainly a risk of snow at times across northern hills and the snow line may occasionally lower to modest levels and further south..overnight frosts and ice would also feature.

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The hemispheric low anomoly link up now complete away from the W Russian block

How will that affect our upstream Canadian fella ?? 

That's a good question. I have seen some musing by the professionals in the twitter sphere of a possible; retrogression to an eastern north American ridge courtesy of the MJO phases but I've no idea how much credence to give to that

[Weather Boy]

57 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

As per yesterday.  Copious Arctic blocking , unfortunately at our latitude all the peaks and troughs are in the wrong place.

If the Arctic blocking continues then surely the dice will fall.

*Voiceover*: "As in previous winters, the dice did not fall...."

 

[mountain shadow]

5 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

*Voiceover*: "As in previous winters, the dice did not fall...."

 

Ha ha...

Here is the final charts from today's GFS 12z to highlight what I meant---

Arctic High----Check

Scandi High---- Check

Core of PV in Siberia - - -Check

Very little in PV in Greenland/Eastern Canada------Check

GB & Ireland Conditions - - -  - - Benign 

[carinthian]

Morning all, here is snow dreamers chart of the morning with cold pool slap over Blighty ! At least this model has been consistent with its outputs out to 240t , but of course not necessary correct but nice to see. However, would be great for snow fans if this was to prove correct .

C

[Duane S.]

Certainly looks like being a great start to the season in the Alps. I always tend to be cautious about snowfall in early November, certainly  in the lower reaches of the Alps, as this can quite easily all be removed by a rainy mild spell. But right now, the outlook looks great. 

[Methuselah]

But, if only that vast reservoir of warm air, over Continental Europe would just do one!

T+246:    

T+384:    

At least, by T384, Scandinavian T850s are cooling and WAA seems to have been curtailed?

Once again, the GEFS 00Z ensembles don't really suggest a definitive direction of travel, yet; though, they do maintain a blocky, messy evolution:

   

   

Interesting times ahead?

[feb1991blizzard]

Continuous heavy snow on the Northern flank.

 

 

Edited November 7, 2019 by feb1991blizzard