Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[bluearmy]

14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well I think most would agree that that is a sliced vortex even on a mean chart at 10 days, ECM T240:

Won't give anything cold to the UK in foreseeable, but... bigger picture...NH trop vortex having trouble getting out of the starting gates...ah...bless!

IMO, the secret here is to get that Alaskan trough to draw some of the attention of the Canadian vortex to the west - that should help quieten the Atlantic  lowheights a tad and allow some blocking to establish and hold in the e Atlantic or nw Europe sector 

Edited November 6, 2019 by bluearmy

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

IMO, the secret here is to get that Alaskan trough to draw some of the attention of the Canadian vortex to the west - that should help quieten the Atlantic  lowheights a tad and allow some blocking to establish and hold in the e Atlantic or nw Europe sector 

Yep.

The low heights across Europe will hopefully assist.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Very much as you were with the ECM mean! Very similar to the 0Z,still plenty of runs approaching - 5c line. Basically it remains chilly for the next 10 day's, and I've noticed the boys from Exeter have pulled away from that much milder theme moving forward, so the signs could be about to look up for a change. In the words of that great x BBC 1 forecaster Dan Corbett.... That's ya weather for now... Legend! 

[knocker]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Highly anomalous east European ridge into the Arctic on this evening's GEFs, which connects to the Alaskan ridge which is adjacent to a complex vortex with troughs  running south and south east  This amplification ensures a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard which continues to weaken and diverge in the vicinity of the UK courtesy of the aforementioned ridge and a trough running south to North Africa. This scenario thus does slow down or halt zonal movement of systems so although portending still changeable, the detail will be a tad tricky. Temps around average

Following on from the GEFS the EPS and NOAA  All very much in the same ball park so the spiel above should suffice

Edited November 6, 2019 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean indicates temperatures sliding well below average for much of the next 7-10 days, especially for central and northern uk so it becomes cold and it continues predominantly unsettled / cyclonic with wet and windy spells and there is a considerable risk of hill snow across the north bringing a wintry scene at times, perhaps the snow won't be exclusively reserved for high ground either!..❄

Edited November 6, 2019 by JON SNOW

[bluearmy]

45 minutes ago, knocker said:

Following on from the GEFS the EPS and NOAA  All very much in the same ball park so the spiel above should suffice

Note the slow demise of the Alaskan/ e Siberian ridge link up ...... that’s good re the Canadian vortex possible link to low developing low Alaskan heights 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Note the slow demise of the Alaskan/ e Siberian ridge link up ...... that’s good re the Canadian vortex possible link to low developing low Alaskan heights 

Will the phasing just blow up the Canadian vortex further though rather than pull it West?

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Will the phasing just blow up the Canadian vortex further though rather than pull it West?

At the moment the Canadian vortex is pulsing east into the Atlantic .....that’s would still happen but those pulses would hopefully be less intense depth wise with some of the pulsing headed west aswell. 

[Jordan S]

35 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

The GEFS 12z mean indicates temperatures sliding well below average for much of the next 7-10 days, especially for central and northern uk so it becomes cold and it continues predominantly unsettled / cyclonic with wet and windy spells and there is a considerable risk of hill snow across the north bringing a wintry scene at times, perhaps the snow won't be exclusively reserved for high ground either!..❄

Scotland anyway could see some wintry weather on low ground at times mabye towards this weekend you never know the run from the Gfs shows various wintry precipitation at times mostly in the north but even further south adding to the chilly feel to things through November although GFS definitely over doing the wintriness I feel. It's only one run so the next update no doubt quite different. 

Edited November 6, 2019 by jordan smith

[damianslaw]

It remains a preety cold and unsettled outlook for the foreseeable, with no change in the overall pattern, a cold trough through the UK, ridge building in behind with the jet on a continued NW-SE alignment on a southerly trajectory. Wintry precipitation on higher ground in the north at times, just cold rain for elsewhere, though might see some sleety wintriness down to lower levels at times in the north. Frost and fog a common feature at times as well. Very seasonal.

Longer term - a split between GFS and ECM, the former showing a less amplified flow, the latter wants to inflate the ridge through the mid atlantic which could introduce a colder NE flow at least for a time. 

 

[tinybill]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

It remains a preety cold and unsettled outlook for the foreseeable, with no change in the overall pattern, a cold trough through the UK, ridge building in behind with the jet on a continued NW-SE alignment on a southerly trajectory. Wintry precipitation on higher ground in the north at times, just cold rain for elsewhere, though might see some sleety wintriness down to lower levels at times in the north. Frost and fog a common feature at times as well. Very seasonal.

Longer term - a split between GFS and ECM, the former showing a less amplified flow, the latter wants to inflate the ridge through the mid atlantic which could introduce a colder NE flow at least for a time. 

 

some  very juicy charts on the  gfs  any thing could happen  at  the  moment

[phil nw.]

For now the key point is that the Azores high remains out west and is not modeled extending eastwards into Europe. This  is because of the omnipresent UK trough directing se into C. Europe. 

Once that happens the jet goes north and we revert to zonal westerlies. 

At least we have a coldish pattern from the north west which looks set for a couple of weeks yet until we hopefully develop a better blocking setup over the Arctic. 

The forecast reduction of zonal winds higher up gives some hope. This reflected in the shredding of the pv showing in the later frames of the model runs. 

A very different looking pv for November in the models that's for sure. 

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

16 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

It remains a preety cold and unsettled outlook for the foreseeable, with no change in the overall pattern, a cold trough through the UK, ridge building in behind with the jet on a continued NW-SE alignment on a southerly trajectory. Wintry precipitation on higher ground in the north at times, just cold rain for elsewhere, though might see some sleety wintriness down to lower levels at times in the north. Frost and fog a common feature at times as well. Very seasonal.

Longer term - a split between GFS and ECM, the former showing a less amplified flow, the latter wants to inflate the ridge through the mid atlantic which could introduce a colder NE flow at least for a time. 

 

All in all a typical early November setup. Possibly we are all a bit too eager for real potential.Yes early days but the early signs are good. What’s not to like about some real sleet anyway. I am typing this from a very nice secret rural Fylde hostelry where the equally nice barmaid has just poked the fire and logged on.

It must be chilly. 

Edited November 6, 2019 by Iceaxecrampon

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

ICON giving a good spell of snow with some to low levels in Scotland (central belt) and maybe N England

[shaky]

Better 18z?!!low sliding more and not pushing east as quickly at 120 hours!!

[feb1991blizzard]

I wonder if that Arctic high was directly over the pole, what the AO would read - record breaking i suggest.

[Allseasons-Si]

It's nice to see the gfs  get going out of the starting blocks unlike earlier and last night...

gfs,ukmo and ecm

how bad was that!,i bet everyone wanted to throw there monitor/phone out of the window

anyway the 18z is much better at disrupting the trough at 144hrs showing a neg tilt SE as opposed to a near bowling ball shape with better height's to our NE,all these incremental steps make a huge difference as to what happens later on

i would just like to mention about the models into fl because a lot of folk think that it's going to happen and jumping on the bandwagon(esp newcomers),like if we saw a stonking run or runs we jump to conclusions thinking this will happen.it might but nine times out of ten it will not,same goes to oh! no zonal train incoming in fl,no it ain't but the trends are what we are/all looking for and i for one also look for trends,forget about the details that comes well in the reliable,macro fl,micro in the reliable

the trends do still show hp cells floating around to our north in the NH and it's these hp cells that keep us interested as to what the falling dice will play later on,now we all know that these hp cells might not be in the right place for delivering cold to our shores,that will be bad luck but look how small our island is compared to the NH

lastly thanks to all the great posts again in here today,i always feel warm and welcomed in this nice community 

cheers

-----------------------------

the latest news on my partner is that she is doing fine and she looks much better today,the docs said she might be discharged as of Friday or poss tomorrow, also she is on detox medication for her drinking habit of which hasn't helped with her condition of stomach hernia.

 

Edited November 6, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I wonder if that Arctic high was directly over the pole, what the AO would read - record breaking i suggest.

Pretty,yes.

[feb1991blizzard]

When i say i want a cross polar flow, i usually expect that in the unlikely event of it happening, it would be from Scandinavia to the Pacific, but we are not a million miles off one from New York to Siberia on this run!

[January Snowstorm]

Utterly miserable week ahead with plenty more cold rain. It really is unpleasant to work in when comparing with previous November's!!

Out of this though springs the hope that maybe this Winter will provide something quite different to the last few years. As always time will tell!!

[NorthernRab]

The Scottish mountains would be taking a hammering under this with an excellent start to the ski season

[Jordan S]

7 minutes ago, NorthernRab said:

The Scottish mountains would be taking a hammering under this with an excellent start to the ski season

And the rest of the UK getting hammered by heavy rain and very strong mabye damaging winds..

[sorepaw1]

7 minutes ago, NorthernRab said:

The Scottish mountains would be taking a hammering under this with an excellent start to the ski season

GFS T+192 looks dangerous tbh for the uk violent winds and widespread rain sleet and snow .

[Mapantz]

Quite an unusual scenario from 192 to 228 hours on the GFS. Perfect example of RACY! Severe gales for the ROI, Wales and SW England from a WSW direction. As cyclogenesis continues, winds switch to WNW / NW bringing severe gales back across Wales, through the Midlands in to the SE of England. 994mb out in the Atlantic at 180 hours. 24 hours later, 954mb. I suspect it'll be an outlier, but interesting to see, nonetheless.

[Jordan S]

That really is a very significant storm system on this evenings GFS an extended spell of stormy conditions for numerous hours if this run verified a lot of rainfall would accompany this system this storm would be very problematic.. like @Mapantzhas pointed out likely an outlier but we'll see.

Until then staying unsettled with low pressure systems being Consistently steered towards the UK. 

Edited November 6, 2019 by jordan smith