Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[feb1991blizzard]

30 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

ECM at 240 ends on a beauty of a chart... The Atlantic Wave Breaking during this run is continuous, it then drops this at day 10... going to be good fun if this is in the post...

Not seen those charts before, i take it the red colours gaining latitude is a good thing, take it that means the height of the tropopause is lifting higher, the lower the Hpa number.

[shaky]

Latest icon slides the low now this coming weekend instead of pushing straight through!!

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Latest icon slides the low now this coming weekend instead of pushing straight through!!

Yes quite a big shift there at T120, with 12z T126 for comparison:

[Met4Cast]

27 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I want to try and illustrate what is forecast re the stratospheric and tropospheric vortex interplay, with these charts at T240 from the GFS 0z.  The first chart is from stratobserve.com and approximates the strat vortex as an ellipse coloured yellow (1hPa) -top to orange (150hPa) -bottom:

First compare the yellow with the 10hPa temperature chart from Meteociel that is often posted here (comparing apples and oranges here as one is an ellipse based on height, the other is temperature but they both illustrate well the shape of the vortex)

They look the same shape and orientation.  Now compare the orange with the tropospheric pattern (colours are 500hPa geopotential height):

The orientation at 150hPa is (maybe) vaguely aligned, but the 500hPa pattern is just a mess, it would be hard to draw an ellipse that approximated it.  If the orange ellipse on this strat chart matches the trop pattern then we will be in trouble re winter cold, but as of now they don't.  At all.

Just to add to this - Another view of the disconnect can be seen on the AM charts from StratObserve 

Height is displayed along the Y Axis, dates along the X Axis. The oranges show the strat vortex is quite healthy swirling around at the top, however the negative anoms at the bottom of the chart show the stronger vortex hasn't been able to propagate down through the atmosphere to impact surface conditions yet. All the blocking we're seeing on the models at the moment is very much trop led.

This "trop led" blocking can impact the upper stratosphere given right the right pattern, continued wave braking/ep flux combined with Alteruen low/Scandi High combination is probably the reason for the forecast in reduction of strat zonal winds through this month. (though, this doesn't mean much given they're almost record breakingly strong.. lets see how low they can get! Weaker the better)

Green lines = GEFS

Pink = CFS, note CFS members in agreement for a massive reduction though important to note the strong -VE bias this model has as lead time increases. I suspect this is the reason the November CFS seasonal is going insane with blocking come January (ties in with Catacols thoughts from earlier quite well, actually)

Lots of interesting things happening at the moment! Maybe just this once.. they'll all come together to give us one hell of a winter.

Edited November 5, 2019 by Met4Cast

[knocker]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not seen those charts before, i take it the red colours gaining latitude is a good thing, take it that means the height of the tropopause is lifting higher, the lower the Hpa number.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/92690-dynamic-tropopause/?tab=comments#comment-4094707

[SMU]

Could be a toptastic pub run tonight look at the arc of cold out of Scandi!

 

[ICE COLD]

The 18z seems to be stuck

[ALL ABOARD]

5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

The 18z seems to be stuck

Legend has it, that the run is so cold it's frozen solid. 

[bluearmy]

Not stuck on WZ

by day 8 not much difference to the 12z 

[Mike Poole]

GFS 18z cuts the high off at T120, here compared to 12z T126:

And higher heights into Greenland, could be a good run this, if it can be bothered to dribble out any further...

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not stuck on WZ

by day 8 not much difference to the 12z 

Its stuck on my laptop?

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Its stuck on my laptop?

It is stuck now on 189.

[feb1991blizzard]

They ain't half a messing about with our enjoyment tonight at NCEP, with these suites coming out too late.

[Allseasons-Si]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its stuck on my laptop?

what!,your eyes

jokes aside

theres incremental adjustments in the 18z but not much

even WZ has frozen at 189

will have to view the run in the morning

 a final note before i turn in,my partner is in a stable condition and will be reviewed on over the next couple of days,i feel so lonely right now

sorry.

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

They ain't half a messing about with our enjoyment tonight at NCEP, with these suites coming out too late.

Seems the pub run has gone down the pub...

Night all.

Edited November 5, 2019 by Mike Poole

[icykev]

All seems to be lining up to me, just hope we finally get it to fall in place. Pardon the pun

Would love to see a bitter start to winter in England. Looks like the jet is behaving erractically atm along with the PV, NAO and many other factors. Let alone the squirrels ❄

[feb1991blizzard]

The 18z GFS run ended with zonal garbage - strong Westerly theme, Wet and windy.

[feb1991blizzard]

Nothing special overall but a few decent Easterlies in there.

[ITSY]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Nothing special overall but a few decent Easterlies in there.

True but too soon for these to matter I think. The PV is not in a happy place, that’s the main thing- so long as it stays so. Here’s some of tonight’s more interesting options...

[MATTWOLVES 3]

51 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

what!,your eyes

jokes aside

theres incremental adjustments in the 18z but not much

even WZ has frozen at 189

will have to view the run in the morning

 a final note before i turn in,my partner is in a stable condition and will be reviewed on over the next couple of days,i feel so lonely right now

sorry.

Hey si, chin up mate, I no all about hernia problems, had my fair share. Best wishes to the missus, hope she is well soon mate. Regarding the 18z, I think Feb just pointed out about some decent Estly, and Indeed there are a few! Not to hung up over the pub run, especially when it's been on the lash all night... Its head will be more sober come the 0Z run Still some decent ensembles though and a very good ECM, so overall not a bad day...

[Jordan S]

52 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The 18z GFS run ended with zonal garbage - strong Westerly theme, Wet and windy.

One of the first extended runs in a while showing a more typical pattern we see at this time of year with the azores high placed well with low pressure across the north with frequent strong westerly winds..

This is the extended range ofcourse so it really is garbage this applies to cold synoptics at the end of the extended range. It seems the GFS either blows up the westerly flow too much because of the general bias to these conditions or show ridiculously unusual cold charts that are unlikely to verify.. although the consistency of cold synoptics thrown out by the GFS and various other models over the last week or so is impressive and can be taken more seriously.. (with one less pinch of salt to normal)  I suspect the Gfs will flip blocked and cold again but whether that will be the outcome we obviously won't know until the general time frame it shows it for.. but then again you all know that ofcourse. I do think we will see fairly blocked conditions for a while yet but It's a waiting game for anything particularly wintry away from higher ground of Scotland for now. 

Allseasons-si no need to apologise I hope things get better for you and your partner. You've got us lot to keep you company.

Edited November 6, 2019 by jordan smith

[northwestsnow]

Looks like there are still issues with WZ this morning..

[knocker]

Outlook - unsettled and quite cold

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 0400 UK chart

Apart from showers still ongoing down coastal regions, particularly in the west. a clear and chilly start for most regions with quite a widespread frost and a few mist patches. These should clear and it will be sunny in central and eastern regions of England for much of the day but cloud will encroach from the west during the morning with some patchy rain on the first occlusion by midday. which will track north east. Quickly followed by the main heavier band of rain courtesy of the next occlusion which will be effecting the south west by 1800

The low continues to develop overnight and the occlusion slows down as it swings north east resulting in some persistent rain over northern regions with heavy showers following in the south west which could be thundery

Not a lot of change through Thursday and a very unpleasant day for many as the low takes a firmer grip with the moderate rain continuing over the north accompanied by strong winds and further heavy showers in the south west which again could be thundery

The rain will continue for a while through Thursday night but will eventually clear as the trough is forced south east as it comes under intense pressure from the west

By Saturday an occlusion is tracking east across the country associated with a negatively tilted trough being driven around the subtropical high by a very strong jet and this will bring rain to most areas with snow on the high ground in the north

The front will clear to the east over Saturday night so Sunday a much drier day with sunny intervals with some showers in the north courtesy of the trailing front but another quite cold day.

Apologies if this is somewhat disjointed but having trouble with the sites I use

[ArHu3]

Gfs seems to be delayed today, still only @138, hopefully this delay means it's cooking up something nice for us

 

 

Edit: it's a meteociel problem, wetterzentrale has the complete 0z

 

Wetterzentrale - Top Karten - GFS Noordelijk halfrond 00Z

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

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Wetterkarten GFS Noordelijk halfrond 00Z

 

 

Edited November 6, 2019 by ArHu3

[knocker]

The gfs iis sorted slightly and the 5-10 anomaly indicates strong ridging into the Arctic from both sides with a continuation of the trough feed on  a strong jet Canadian vortex > to the UK. Ergo unsettled with wet and windy weather at times with snow on the uplands in the north, with temps below average

And this is the theme with the extended GEFS and the amplification of the anomalies is worth noting

 

Edited November 6, 2019 by knocker