Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

and Jetstream -  i know why - it doesn't make it any better though.

Yes, know what you mean. Typical November shaping up though - bulk standard for UK imho. Rain, wind, gradually turning colder, stormy at times, possibility of snow on Northern hills, Scottish mountains. Cold building to the North and East into Scandi and Russia - it's not exactly unexpected for November. The big Russian High, that seems to be forecast over next couple of weeks, will just act as a barrier to any Atlantic 'weather' moving much further East than the UK. So, i see little change in next 2 weeks other than cooler, but remaining predominately wet, as systems stall over or v close to the UK.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Loving these charts..I'm ready for winter!!

The GEFS 12z mean again indicates a cold unsettled outlook, coldest for scotland and this isn't a ramp but I'm really sensing some widespread wintry potential in the not too distant future with heights to the NE and trough disruption aplenty for the uk!!

 

20_366_850tmp.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
37 minutes ago, booferking said:

There is plenty of cold in the NH its just split in the wrong locations the usual applies what can go wrong will go wrong

gfsnh-1-336.png

Good job it’s only 5th November then eh! Nothing wasted this early. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Very impressive squeeze by the ecm with the very strong jet exiting the eastern seaboard south of the trough and then hitting the buffers of the strong European  high

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z300_speed-3300800.thumb.png.f4088f11571c1c682c2c5ce4d8a1bad8.pngecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z300_speed-3387200.thumb.png.7a72b50c3720a32c974d9dc8bbd64b47.pngecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-3387200.thumb.png.3305b6d2e36b25ec02ef5979e661b122.pngecmwf-deterministic-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-3322400.thumb.png.9569656d2a86e45cf6c1e39826a8afa2.pngecmwf-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-3322400.thumb.png.bd6f1bde75c2e677c5ad5d6e6e74ccd7.png

Edited by knocker
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

and Jetstream -  i know why - it doesn't make it any better though.

It's not just those things. History has shown us that Canada and the States can go very mild whilst we freeze. IMO it's the Pacific pattern not conducive to UK cold. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

A nice chart at 192, much less going on and a clear Scandy high (in a perfect world Would be slightly more north), this has a better chance of picking up a cold feed from Russia.

211E5193-D2D5-4461-B636-E923D3A192B9.png
 

Not quite at 216, but the LP to the NW looks like sliding again. Still need the HP over Scandy to move North!! 

0E4E6F66-4BE6-42AB-B6CB-F68C45BBA198.png

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
53 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Now would be the time to dash to the shop to pick up a box of tissues if you haven’t already - they may be needed for the 12Z ECMWF run.
Plus, we've already set up a ginormous settee for you lot to dive behind! 

Hurdle overcome - its fine. Better than the 0z at the end.

image.thumb.png.b123f244df06e4f63c2e2f0327d65950.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's not just those things. History has shown us that Canada and the States can go very mild whilst we freeze. IMO it's the Pacific pattern not conducive to UK cold. 

Still think the ladmass to the North is the biggest hurdle - but agree something has changed - the frequency with which these really frigid spills right into Southern USA and we get Atlantic dross at the same time has increased.

EDIT : I know i shouldn't be talking about this in here - perhaps they could give us a designated thread at some point to talk about USA V UK cold v mild timing.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Don’t you just wish the ECM went further than day 10 . Looks good by day 10 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hurdle overcome - its fine.

This is the issue we're facing. The Pacific side HP is encouraging LP over the Canadian/Greenland sector. Cold air sweeping down through Canada and the States as a repeating synoptic. 

We could do with a warming centred over the area the 'L' i've annotated on the diagram below

1917082058_ECH1-216(2).thumb.gif.1a62b278fda3b5ed3f82dab30bb86468.gif

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM T240:

image.thumb.jpg.c40b7ba971d42a669a3194bcf2989409.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.b6f73c110bf3c67d4df075c308539af9.jpg

Great pattern, air over UK too warm, mind.  Detail!  It is only November, power to add with this one anyway if it went further.

Northern hemisphere pattern looks good from this run for putting pressure on the strat vortex which is what we want, Scandi high, yes big time, edging towards Aleutian low too, so good run this.

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T240:

image.thumb.jpg.c40b7ba971d42a669a3194bcf2989409.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.b6f73c110bf3c67d4df075c308539af9.jpg

Great pattern, air over UK too warm, mind.  Detail!  

Northern hemisphere pattern looks good from this run for putting pressure on the strat vortex which is what we want, Scandi high, yes big time, edging towards Aleutian low too, so good run this.

This to me looks absolutely primed , day 12 the beast would be on its way , heights building into Greenland from Canada would link with Scandy HP, LP finish sliding past, Siberian extreme cold then heads our way - obviously not staying quite as cold as over there...

main thing to note, the PV has completely disappeared from the place we coldies don’t like it!! 

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, nick sussex said:

The pieces don’t quite come together for coldies on the ECM but it doesn’t take a Hollywood scriptwriter to see how they could .

Overall an interesting run and the good news the purple blob of doom hasn’t decided to set up shop over Greenland .

There’s a lot going on , a tanking AO and the MJO on the move so we’re likely to see more changes over the coming days .

Day 10 now takes us towards the date where more widespread low level snow is possible so we need to pray things fall into place for us. That ECM relies on a LOT of things going in our favour to arrive at that day 10 chart. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

This is the issue we're facing.. 

We could do with a warming centred over the area the 'L' i've annotated on the diagram below

 

Where’s that blow torch?!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
7 minutes ago, booferking said:

ECM looks like its getting ready for winter a few days after this chart.

ECH1-240 (4).gif

We are still going to need a chunk of Siberian vortex segment to snap off and get shunted SW wards into E Europe.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

I like how people are talking as though we are in the depths of winter! Easterlies aren’t particularly cold yet. The sea is still warm. It’ll take something monumental to get very cold conditions in what is technically still autumn. 

Edited by mb018538
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

P.S the warming is still there on the GFS but it is depicting a weakish displacement attempt which has the effect of shunting the SPV more towards the Pacific side.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

We are still going to need a chunk of Siberian vortex segment to snap off and get shunted SW wards into E Europe.

Looks like it's having a go closing the high in at day 10 from both sides.

ECH1-240 (1).gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...