Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[TSNWK]

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Stakes just got higher .

Another possible slider on the GFS , colder air in place .

The UKMO is complete pants compared to that , horrible deeper low and the cold air stuck well to the north .

Both cracking from an overhead! view though? what is going on? looks so docile, almost summer like up top...

Good to be back for another winter as well

 

 

[weirpig]

Nearrly a split in the vortex  at 240h   

[Eskimo]

Must be a handful of times I've seen the PV in bits during the Atlantic 'silly season'. 

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, booferking said:

ICON moved towards the earlier UKMO 00 run..

Is that Elvis?

[IDO]

The problem in the mid-term highlighted here:

The UK under a two wave attack, Euro and Azores ridges/highs meaning zero chance of a cold flow getting too close. We are stuck in that cut off low as it warms out slowly.

By D10 we have the cold ejected out of the US eastern seaboard pushing the wedges of heights to our N/NW to the east, but we remain in that two pronged wave attack that will not allow cold for the foreseeable. Hoping this is not one of those locked in patterns but it will again send the US into the freezer after D10. This synoptic is perfect at this time of year for cold and snow, just we are in the no-go zone for any of the action (no cold feed so no cold in situ).

By D12 and we are still under the same pattern:

With the tPV not showing any signs of getting its act together these sub-tropical waves could be the driver for the NH profile. Rinse and repeat as a conveyor belt of HP cells move from west to east from the Pacific, destination Atlantic. D8 and D13 spot the difference:

Hopefully GFS is wrong.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 hours ago, Catacol said:

If that sustained signal is correct then genuinely we may be looking at more significant vortex disruption earlier in the season than might have been expected a month ago. There is an awakening of the MJO at present entering favourable orbit for wave activity to support high lat blocking, and also a signal for a period of aleutian low dominance. Lag times for patterns like this dictate I think that we are still likely to see a December where the atlantic remains in charge though with very much a polar maritime dominance in circulation...but given the likely next cycle of the MJO in early January and the strength of this wave 2 first assault I am becoming more firm in the belief that back loaded cold of some description will arrive following what might be a second perturbation of the vortex shortly after Christmas. Sea surface anomalies continue to support a more southerly tracking jet and are significantly different to the profile this time last year when they strongly suggested a +NAO signature. Still 10 more days before I firm up on a call for the season, but these clues are all helping make the jigsaw....

How about this?

Edited November 5, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Methuselah]

There's some stonking cold building, up to the NE...One to watch?

   

[Ali1977]

Not a great run and no warming of the strat in FI...hopefully a blip, won’t take much tweaking to improve quickly though!!
The GEFS again show some crazy NHs, some of them are close to being awesome 

Edited November 5, 2019 by Ali1977

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Not a great run and no warming of the strat in FI...hopefully a blip, won’t take much tweaking to improve quickly though!!
The GEFS again show some crazy NHs, some of them are close to being awesome 

No way!!after consecutive runs of warming and it getting  closer and warmer your telling me its just disappeared!!thats crazy!!

[knocker]

The ext GEFS mean anomaly has some impressive linkage of the subtropical high zones via the Pole  Accompanying this a quite intense vortex northern Canada with associated trough aligned down the eastern N. America with a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard around the mid Atlantic high pressure to a trough aligned Iceland > UK > Iberia This would portend unsettled with temps a tad below average but the surface analysis will be tricky

[Mike Poole]

Liking where the GEM ends up here at T240:

Both from the perspective of the turmoils of the trop vortex, but also as these sorts of synoptics are now tending to draw colder air to the UK at mid November. 

Theres going to be a crunch point soon, where we start to get an idea of what the position will be going into December, with the main options being SSW, continued trop strat vortex disconnect, coupling of trop and strat vortex, where's your money?

[cyclonic happiness]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Is that Elvis?

Yep, that's him!

[nick sussex]

The original drop down point of low pressure has a huge bearing on the position of any cold pool to the east and ne .

This is often the case in these types of set ups . The models have made a pigs ear of what happens to low pressure as it tracks se , large variations between runs as in how deep and where it sets up afterwards .

As one can see by the divergence between the GFS and UKMO at days 5 and 6.  

[Geordiesnow]

I think whatever run you look at, the lack of cold air will be an issue. Personally speaking I think it's a bit of a waste these type of charts and unless a northerly shows then it's not going to turn that cold just yet. All that said, it's interesting how the models are playing it out though but as the UKMO shows, the whole pattern can quickly change if the jet coming out of the states is too strong. 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Now would be the time to dash to the shop to pick up a box of tissues if you haven’t already - they may be needed for the 12Z ECMWF run.
Plus, we've already set up a ginormous settee for you lot to dive behind! 

[MattStoke]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Is that Elvis?

I don’t know but, the PV is all shook up.

[booferking]

8 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

I think whatever run you look at, the lack of cold air will be an issue. Personally speaking I think it's a bit of a waste these type of charts and unless a northerly shows then it's not going to turn that cold just yet. All that said, it's interesting how the models are playing it out though but as the UKMO shows, the whole pattern can quickly change if the jet coming out of the states is too strong. 

There is plenty of cold in the NH its just split in the wrong locations the usual applies what can go wrong will go wrong

Edited November 5, 2019 by booferking

[nick sussex]

The ECM is already diverging from the UKMO at day 3 upstream over the ne USA  . Let’s hope this continues ! 

The ECM at day 4 separates the energy upstream , note the clearance of the low tracking se wards , no hang back of shortwave energy to the deeper low sw of Greenland . The ECM cannot converge now with the UKMO , the ships sailed .

Edited November 5, 2019 by nick sussex

[Cheshire Freeze]

15 minutes ago, booferking said:

There is plenty of cold in the NH its just split in the wrong locations the usual applies what can go wrong will go wrong

Same as we've seen past few years...cold spilling down through Canada, a zone of WAA close to the UK and then another cold pool towards Siberia.

[booferking]

ECM not to bad at 120hr just need that energy near Greenland to dive SE again through Europe and wedge to build more around Iceland.

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Same as we've seen past few years...cold spilling down through Canada, a zone of WAA close to the UK and then another cold pool towards Siberia.

Yes, the other day there was a run where mississipi was covered in really rigid uppers, prcatically the whole deep South of America was covered in -5c and the 0c isotherms wasn't a million miles off Mexico, even New york is on a lower lattitude than the UK - absolutely soul destroying.

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

even New york is on a lower lattitude than the UK - absolutely soul destroying.

Gulf stream

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Gulf stream

and Jetstream -  i know why - it doesn't make it any better though.

Edited November 5, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[nick sussex]

Not a bad ECM run so far . It’s key now that energy transfers se at day 8 and not south .

You want that energy to feed low heights over northern Italy and not head towards Iberia .

[shaky]

Fantastic ecm up to 168 hours fromecm!!!continues from the 00z!!sticks two fingers up at ukmo!!gfs and ecm both look identical so ukmo is a massive outlier right now!