Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Last weeks EC46 may have been poor Feb!!! But the EC46 was poor for the whole of last winter... So much so... That I decided to save the money I was paying to view it!!! I've saved that much now... I can afford a skiing holiday in the alps!!! Joking aside... I feel there could be a big turnaround in the coming weeks from these long range models.... There is a lot of confusion and contradiction going on with some of them presently.... 

Who did you subscribe to to view it please?

[SMU]

EPS clusters for AO- the lowest set with the last 36-48 hour trending downwards!

Firmly at -3.5 now

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Who did you subscribe to to view it please?

Weather. Us I think Feb. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Read it and weep folks... Its not a bad ECM mean tonight, we remain quite chilly, and the mean is lower than the op was.... Ohhhhh yehhhhh... Gonna have to calm down now, as I'm nearly out of allocated posts.... A very good evening good peeps... 

[SMU]

^^ I have it but its behind the paywall - 

Will update on 7th when it comes out-

 

Looking @Mattwolves post 12z operational looks progressive V the mean for that slider on Sat as London sits as the top of the bandwidth -

 

 

Edited November 4, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Frosty.]

Probably the last post from me tonight ( not by choice!) I got my bugle ready..just wanted to say, the longer term Ecm 12z ensemble mean is what you would hope to see if you're a coldie..night y'all.

Edited November 4, 2019 by JON SNOW

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Weather. Us I think Feb. 

I think the ones i have just posted are better - they are the ones Knocker and bluearmy subscribe to i think - either weatherbell or weathermodels but in any case you can see a good deal of the EC46 free on the Icelandic suite, i would like a weatherbell subscription but more to be able to view the EPS mean 15 dayer around this time of evening during interesting times rather than for the EC46.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Quite a sobering read from Tamara which happens to back up my own thoughts about December becoming increasingly mild.

Cast your minds back to how smashed the TPV was in December 2010 and how quickly organised it became by January. That should be a lesson to anyone on how troposheric vortex strength now means diddly squat to the strength of it a month down the line.

[knocker]

The EPS ext mean anomaly not dissimilar to the GEFS, Ergo:

The key features of the ext mean EPS are the strong TPV northern Canada and the quite intense European ridge into the eastern Arctic. Thus still a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard but diverging mid Atlantic courtesy of the ridge and the UK trough which is now over Iberia, With a very slack gradient over the UK  the surface analysis remains tricky with temps a tad below average

NOAA in the same ball park

 

Edited November 4, 2019 by knocker

[bluearmy]

13 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I’m hoping the JAMSTEC long range has it nailed, others to follow that!!

Jamestec is interesting as it seems to sit on the e euro ridge and w euro trough ..... probably difficult to get cold enough air into nw Europe to make it particularly snowy though it would be colder than average 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Jamestec is interesting as it seems to sit on the e euro ridge and w euro trough ..... probably difficult to get cold enough air into nw Europe to make it particularly snowy though it would be colder than average 

You can see though that although Iceland is below average, there is a tiny bit of Greenland poking out and that is warm, could it be advertising Northerlies perhaps?

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You can see though that although Iceland is below average, there is a tiny bit of Greenland poking out and that is warm, could it be advertising Northerlies perhaps?

Probably.

I think i will hold council until i see Glosea suggest similar though.

[feb1991blizzard]

27 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Quite a sobering read from Tamara which happens to back up my own thoughts about December becoming increasingly mild.

Cast your minds back to how smashed the TPV was in December 2010 and how quickly organised it became by January. That should be a lesson to anyone on how troposheric vortex strength now means diddly squat to the strength of it a month down the line.

Yes, unfortunately i can quite easily see that happening, although i never buy into this lasting right the way through winter just because of an ENSO neutral state, even in those winters, surely you can get periods of high AAM with the GWO going into a high numbered phase, i would wager that EL NINO's only have a slightly better strike rate than other ENSO states combined when it comes to cold UK winters.

FWIW i am going for a GP special - a winter of two halves this year but with perhaps a tiny little taster early and still not uniformly cold all the way through the second half but about 1-2c colder than the first half overall.

Edited November 4, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[bluearmy]

21 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You can see though that although Iceland is below average, there is a tiny bit of Greenland poking out and that is warm, could it be advertising Northerlies perhaps?

Probably yes but where will the rump of any deeper cold go with that high sceuro anomoly ..... probably to our west 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Probably yes but where will the rump of any deeper cold go with that high sceuro anomoly ..... probably to our west 

Yes true, Iceland being blue probably a bit of a giveaway there.

[ArHu3]

30 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Quite a sobering read from Tamara which happens to back up my own thoughts about December becoming increasingly mild.

Cast your minds back to how smashed the TPV was in December 2010 and how quickly organised it became by January. That should be a lesson to anyone on how troposheric vortex strength now means diddly squat to the strength of it a month down the line.

And don't forget the near reversal of the SPV mid december 2017, only to go to almost record strength 2 weeks or so later

[Chesil View]

53 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Quite a sobering read from Tamara which happens to back up my own thoughts about December becoming increasingly mild.

Cast your minds back to how smashed the TPV was in December 2010 and how quickly organised it became by January. That should be a lesson to anyone on how troposheric vortex strength now means diddly squat to the strength of it a month down the line.

Hi Crewe. Regarding Dec 2010 I don't think many on here would be too disappointed if the vortex reorganised after giving us Five weeks of deep cold and snow like it did back then. But certainly take your point about how quickly it can reorganise.

[MP-R]

Personally I think it will take something more than just neutral conditions to strengthen the PV post early January given it reaches its peak around New Year. If it's been sluggish up until then, it's unlikely to reorganise properly at length at least thereafter. It only took a week in January 2011 for colder benign conditions to return after a brief Atlantic spell following the frigid December. 

In the here and now, however, I've got my eyes on as much of an anticyclonic flow as possible. A trough-dominated easterly just means more rain that's cold as opposed to mild. Still haven't achieved an actual air frost here yet so a ridge or two of high pressure wouldn't go amiss.

[Allseasons-Si]

Question...

what happened to the jma extended,it seems to be stuck at 192 since the 24th Oct?

[Stonethecrows]

14 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Hi Crewe. Regarding Dec 2010 I don't think many on here would be too disappointed if the vortex reorganised after giving us Five weeks of deep cold and snow like it did back then. But certainly take your point about how quickly it can reorganise.

As much as us coldies would love it it's probably not ideal for the economy to take another 13 billion hit like it did in Dec 2010 given the country is already on it's weeble atm.

[Mike Poole]

As the pub run rolls it strikes me that we will miss the rabbit shaped trop vortex, so one last time at T72:

To the business end, and at T138 totally different to ECM already (ECM at T144):

Let's see how this one evolves...

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Nice alignment - cold nearer.

[Mike Poole]

Would you Adam and Eve it, pub run classic, here at T222:

Snow for some from that for sure!

Edited November 4, 2019 by Mike Poole

[phil nw.]

The cold air quite close on this run at T96

Just not enough of a wedge of heights further north to drive the trough more south east to draw down that cold further.

Still this should see snowfall higher up over the highlands,maybe n.pennines. Signs of this nw-se jet alignment ongoing though so the chances of further wintry type precipitation remains especially the later in the month this pattern with those +ve ht anomalies to the north holds.

[Man With Beard]

Still plenty of potential for cold on the 12Z clusters but the problem is we can't see enough of the situation to the SE, which will dictate whether the flow is S of E (potentially still mild) or N of E (progressively colder). Most runs suggesting the former but time for that to change yet, long way off.