Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[swfc]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

6z becomes colder and more settled longer term with a strong anticyclone across Scandy...

It does NW.is it just me tho but anything remotely interesting stays in fi ??.obv subject to change but things recently never land for us in the UK cold wise.great for rain lovers tho

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

6z becomes colder and more settled longer term with a strong anticyclone across Scandy...

Indeed! And, I'm hoping that the main interactions, between the very warm and very cold (relatively speaking) air-masses, will occur to our east or southeast: I have a 'thing' for long-fetch northeasterlies!

   

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

It does NW.is it just me tho but anything remotely interesting stays in fi ??.obv subject to change but things recently never land for us in the UK cold wise.great for rain lovers tho

I would be happy with 6z mate.

OK,it is wet for another 10 days but the scandy high brings some old school Autumn weather mid month...

Just in time for the start of the christmas markets, hope it is right !

[northwestsnow]

We can see the effects of the scandy high later in the run.. (usual caveats apply)

[SLEETY]

I’m loving the NH profile ,the longer it continues it’s only a matter of time before the U.K. get very cold,it’s only early Nov remember.

[jules216]

5 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Money in the bank for wave 2 vortex disruption. The longer that scandy anomaly remains in place the better..... Right now - given it is November - ice days and snow covered fields are not on the agenda here in the UK at all. I accept it can be different in mainland Europe given different synoptics, but it is still very very early...... and to have a truly epic spell we need long fetch north easterlies or easterlies brought in by high lat blocking in the right places. Which brings us back to the benefits of that scandy/euro anomaly and what it is going to do to the vortex. 

I give you some more hope then. There is a correlation between cold October/November and following winter being mild here - examples years 1991 to 1995, recently 2015,2016. November 1989 when we took down communistic regime snowy, following winter also rubbish. 

[ICE COLD]

Another great run from the 6z , as in the NH pattern and that warming is really starting to show at the back end of the op runs . Exciting times ahead . 

[weirpig]

And at the end of the run  the strat starts to become a little toasty    a watching brief at the moment   but sure would be rare for a SSW to happen in November  Edit  what Ice cold said. 

. 

Edited November 4, 2019 by weirpig

[weirpig]

In the short term  very good agreement  for cool and wet   

[feb1991blizzard]

DECENT COLD CLUSTERING ALERT!

[ArHu3]

23 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

DECENT COLD CLUSTERING ALERT!

Speaking about clusters, are the islandic clusters still available and if so where? Oh and is @Man With Beard still around to elucidate them or is it still too early for him? 

Edited November 4, 2019 by ArHu3

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Speaking about clusters, are the islandic clusters still available and if so where? Oh and is @Man With Beard still around to elucidate them? 

Yes - here, MWB doesn't come on as often but will do as the winter progresses.

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2019/

[feb1991blizzard]

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Speaking about clusters, are the islandic clusters still available and if so where? 

They sure are:

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2019/

Follow the time stamps for the required day.

Some nice looking charts at day 10:



1/3 of runs taking us back to flat +NAO by day 15, but pretty much every option on the table:

[Frosty.]

For most of the 6z operational the Atlantic looks clueless, I particularly like the direction of travel towards the end...winter is coming..roll on!!!

[nick sussex]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I like one and three . Two is yuck and needs to do one ! 

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I like one and three . Two is yuck and needs to do one ! 

Yes -although i do have a theory on this and it is splitting my opinion - that the last few years have seen fairly amplified patterns early on in season and got us nowhere, perhaps an early coupling would give us more time to break the vortex down and give us a good mid winter onwards rather than coupling happening mid winter, my theory is based on that everything is different these days and things happen later,  i had better use the word Contemporary era - rather than the other more  controversial double C word, the obvious caveat to what i have said is if we got a really good cold spell that actually delivered early like 2010 or 1985, but you would have to be very lucky to get one on that magnitude, i almost think the best setup for a winter with a longjevital middle part would be a strong Vortex over Greenland soon but with an Aleutian low / Scandi high combo with a trough anchored over us in Nov, then a strong SSW in December or Jan.

Edited November 4, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

Mean Easterly at 300.

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes -although i do have a theory on this and it is splitting my opinion - that the last few years have seen fairly amplified patterns early on in season and got us nowhere, perhaps an early coupling would give us more time to break the vortex down and give us a good mid winter onwards rather than coupling happening mid winter, my theory is based on that everything is different these days and things happen later,  i had better use the word Contemporary era - rather than the other more  controversial double C word, the obvious caveat to what i have said is if we got a really good cold spell that actually delivered early like 2010 or 1985, but you would have to be very lucky to get one on that magnitude, i almost think the best setup for a winter with a longjevital middle part would be a strong Vortex over Greenland soon but with an Aleutian low / Scandi high combo with a trough anchored over us in Nov, then a strong SSW in December or Jan.

It’s an interesting theory Feb . Not sure though whether coldies would be willing to be that patient. The purple blob of doom as I now call the PV once set up can be very hard to budge . 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Mean Easterly at 300.

Liking that...

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Liking that...

 

Yes, although one problem is it has too much of a SE component to it when at this time of year you need a more NE component, or you need frigid uppers to already be on tap to the East, we would need a snap off of that siberian segment first in order to get us some very frigid air.

[SLEETY]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Mean Easterly at 300.

The most pleasing thing about that chart,is no stinking Azores high,instead we have low pressure  instead.

Now that really is unusual for this time of year.Can that be maintained as we head into winter proper.

We know all to well in recent decades how suddenly things change and we are back  to the usual pressure pattern for winter.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, SLEETY said:

The most pleasing thing about that chart,is no stinking Azores high,instead we have low pressure  instead.

Now that really is unusual for this time of year.Can that be maintained as we head into winter proper.

We know all to well in recent decades how suddenly things change and we are back  to the usual pressure pattern for winter.

Yes, that is the most pertinent question there.

[Penicuikblizzard]

Is it not always on a knife edge at this time of year, then the PV gets its act together and the Atlantic comes roaring back for 3 months with cold blips in between ???

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

6 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Is it not always on a knife edge at this time of year, then the PV gets its act together and the Atlantic comes roaring back for 3 months with cold blips in between ???

It’s always a crucial time in model watching I guess, wondering whether the cold comes into the reliable or it’s washed away by the coupling of the strong strat vortex and it’s trop partner. You always have the chance of a SSW but it’s never guaranteed with that either, just have to hope for the best.

Does have 2009/2010 vibes but was the strat vortex as strong then?