Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[tinybill]

no let up this week with a lot rain heading  our way could be problems  with flooding soon,looking at the gfs  its looking very unsettled

[Cheshire Freeze]

As strong a signal for a Siberian HP you'll see at day 16 on a pressure mean chart

At that range it means very little, but interesting nevertheless.

[That ECM]

Gfs and ecm day 10. People may look at the 850’s and not be that happy but I would take either as the opportunities from there are many. I prefer the ecm but I have an affection for that model

[January Snowstorm]

Cold and very wet is the outlook for the next ten days or so with the outside chance of wintry ppn on the very highest ground.

It really feel miserable out there at times.

It is a good outlook synotically though and we haven't seen this in November for a long time. Just hope it won't be wasted on uppers that don't quite match what's required 

[IDO]

As Knocker highlighted yesterday, the GFS 0z has a predominantly westerly flow, unsettled, cooler than average, but not cold, with mini-ridges within the flow that try to build north but are consumed by the main driver, the Atlantic.

Look like we are in a quasi-locked pattern in the medium term. With the wedges of heights to our north, the UK is on that train of systems from the west. They stall close or over the UK before the next system wanders in. I counted seven LP's hitting the UK in the next 14-days (GFS op supported by control).

So rain from associated fronts, with showers and more organised spells of rain before the trough warms out before the next system hits it.

Disappointingly, the outlier GFS ops from yesterday are being watered down further as the model corrects its bias. I assume the model over-reacted to some factor yesterday and ECM joins it on D9-D10 on the 0z (usual caveats). So not quite a dead end yet with the Atlantic height rise, but low probability I would suspect.

[shaky]

Pretty grim ukmo this morning!!even with the ecm and gfs its just low after low!!there is really nothing to get excited about!!the lows just seem to stick around the uk and not budge anywhere!!

[That ECM]

19 minutes ago, shaky said:

Pretty grim ukmo this morning!!even with the ecm and gfs its just low after low!!there is really nothing to get excited about!!the lows just seem to stick around the uk and not budge anywhere!!

Monday morning model viewing? it depends on your location but down here for the next 5 days after today there is not a lot of rain forecast. Even on the ukmo there are height rise to our north. T72 -T96 shows a low over us but in no way a washout. Been in worse places at this time of year for sure.......

Edited November 4, 2019 by That ECM

[ICE COLD]

And again this morning the warming is getting stronger up top . 

[SMU]

24 minutes ago, IDO said:

As Knocker highlighted yesterday, the GFS 0z has a predominantly westerly flow, unsettled, cooler than average, but not cold, with mini-ridges within the flow that try to build north but are consumed by the main driver, the Atlantic.

Look like we are in a quasi-locked pattern in the medium term. With the wedges of heights to our north, the UK is on that train of systems from the west. They stall close or over the UK before the next system wanders in. I counted seven LP's hitting the UK in the next 14-days (GFS op supported by control).

So rain from associated fronts, with showers and more organised spells of rain before the trough warms out before the next system hits it.

Disappointingly, the outlier GFS ops from yesterday are being watered down further as the model corrects its bias. I assume the model over-reacted to some factor yesterday and ECM joins it on D9-D10 on the 0z (usual caveats). So not quite a dead end yet with the Atlantic height rise, but low probability I would suspect.

Hi IDO

Not sure I agree with much of that post if any really-

 You refer to a huge GFS bias yet post nothing to underpin the opinion-

The GFS 00z AO goes off the scale & the mean for the 13th is -3.8 AO - So nothing has been watered down.

The overnight trending from the ECM 00z & the EPS clusters is again * Significantly * downwards which is now pretty much aligned to the GFS

ECM operational towards -5 & the EPS clusters are now down to -3 a big step change.

Maybe your reviewing the fluctuating NAO forecasts & in some way inferring that to this 'watered' down scenario because as it stands the signal is solid AO wise & the ECM is catching up - incidentally the loading pattern for the AO is dictated more so by the continents - so the PV dropping over Asia & central America is the driving force behind the numbers-

What I would say - using the 13th as the peak day the means are around -3.5 so for me any landing zone below -2.5 I would call a non watered down version & within a range of error - above -2.5 (13th) then yes sure watered down-

As for saying we will have a westerly flow at this point thats a bit of a sweeping statement - If you live in NW Ireland then yes maybe however pick somewhere like lincoln then the surface flow is E or NE or SE from day 1 to day 10 - With the proximity of the jet so close tilted NW > SE just to the west of the UK the prevailing surface flow will edge west or east in the coming days so its not as clearcut as you say.

I do agree though wet & chilly at the moment - scotland cold with higher risk of snow.

Day 8 onwards the AO tanks with day 9/10 the peak of bottom out - how that manifests over Greenland is key as to the Uk getting any deeper cold-

S

[shaky]

30 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Monday morning model viewing? it depends on your location but down here for the next 5 days after today there is not a lot of rain forecast. Even on the ukmo there are height rise to our north. T72 -T96 shows a low over us but in no way a washout. Been in worse places at this time of year for sure.......

After viewing the ensembles i guess it will feel like November at least with day time temps of about 6 or 7 and night time temps of close to 0!!

[Sceptical]

1 hour ago, IDO said:

As Knocker highlighted yesterday, the GFS 0z has a predominantly westerly flow, unsettled, cooler than average, but not cold, with mini-ridges within the flow that try to build north but are consumed by the main driver, the Atlantic.

Look like we are in a quasi-locked pattern in the medium term. With the wedges of heights to our north, the UK is on that train of systems from the west. They stall close or over the UK before the next system wanders in. I counted seven LP's hitting the UK in the next 14-days (GFS op supported by control).

So rain from associated fronts, with showers and more organised spells of rain before the trough warms out before the next system hits it.

Disappointingly, the outlier GFS ops from yesterday are being watered down further as the model corrects its bias. I assume the model over-reacted to some factor yesterday and ECM joins it on D9-D10 on the 0z (usual caveats). So not quite a dead end yet with the Atlantic height rise, but low probability I would suspect.

Agreed.

[IDO]

11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Hi IDO

Not sure I agree with much of that post if any really-

 You refer to a huge GFS bias yet post nothing to underpin the opinion-

The GFS 00z AO goes off the scale & the mean for the 13th is -3.8 AO - So nothing has been watered down.

The overnight trending from the ECM 00z & the EPS clusters is again * Significantly * downwards which is now pretty much aligned to the GFS

ECM operational towards -5 & the EPS clusters are now down to -3 a big step change.

Maybe your reviewing the fluctuating NAO forecasts & in some way inferring that to this 'watered' down scenario because as it stands the signal is solid AO wise & the ECM is catching up - incidentally the loading pattern for the AO is dictated more so by the continents - so the PV dropping over Asia & central America is the driving force behind the numbers-

What I would say - using the 13th as the peak day the means are around -3.5 so for me any landing zone below -2.5 I would call a non watered down version & within a range of error - above -2.5 (13th) then yes sure watered down-

As for saying we will have a westerly flow at this point thats a bit of a sweeping statement - If you live in NW Ireland then yes maybe however pick somewhere like lincoln then the surface flow is E or NE or SE from day 1 to day 10 - With the proximity of the jet so close tilted NW > SE just to the west of the UK the prevailing surface flow will edge west or east in the coming days so its not as clearcut as you say.

I do agree though wet & chilly at the moment - scotland cold with higher risk of snow.

Day 8 onwards the AO tanks with day 9/10 the peak of bottom out - how that manifests over Greenland is key as to the Uk getting any deeper cold-

S

Hi there.

The reason that I am not at the moment excited about the negative AO is that it seems to be from a distinct pattern of wedges escaping north from the Pacific and Atlantic and roaming in the Arctic fields keeping that AO negative. It is not like the impressive WAA from a sustained wave(s) attack that we saw on the GFS yesterday and that the notorious D9-D10 ECM hint at!

That negative AO isn't a driver IMHO it is just a symptom of the pattern. Of course, in the greater scheme of things, above my pay grade, the impact of up-welling to the strat may be interesting if that happens, but that will be weeks down the line, if at all, and other factors could overlap that. A bridge to cross later maybe?

On the ground for the UK, that negative AO I feel, is not a player in the mid-term, but hope to be proved wrong of course!

[feb1991blizzard]

9 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

What do you think to that warming showing towards the end feb ? It was getting stronger towards the end . Strongest one I’ve seen yet . 

Not really too knowledgeable about these early season warmings although rarely if ever this early in season are do they ever become full blown strong SSW's. there are Canadian warmings you can have early though but not sure if they have a good strike rate or not, although i remember someone saying there was one in Nov 62. Jury Out - I actually would be more looking at the trop pattern for some wave 2, one it could keep the strong upper Westerlies high up from downwelling giving us some more shots at early cold and 2 could be a pre-cursor to a proper SSW in winter although one caveat is i would rather have strat - trop coupling now than in 1 and a half months time, that is just a theory of mine though that the longer its coupled for, the more likely it is to break down at some point - i don't really have any hard evidence or analogues yet for this, its just one of my David Icke / James Madden style theories.

[Scandinavian High.]

Very interesting model watching at moment   Consistent high pressure to north low to south the complete opposite to what we see west to East very interesting as winter is around the corner. And Steve murr keep up your fantastic posts enjoy reading them .

[nick sussex]

Not sure it’s worth taking the current outputs at face value in terms of precise detail , better to look at the overall NH picture which is positive for coldies .

The overnight ECM is a big improvement in terms of reducing the strength of the PV and moving it further to the nw.

I’d give it a few days to see where the pieces might fall. Writing off mid November cold at this point seems very premature .

[Methuselah]

The large-scale synoptic pattern is clearly unusual, what with the persistent -NAO; but how (if at all) will all that very warm air, down around the eastern Mediterranean affect things...? 

   

The GEFS 00Z ensembles don't really point toward anything in particular just yet, so we'll just have to hope that the -NAO persists...it has, after all, already defied myriad rumours of its demise!

   

   

And now for the 06Z!

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The large-scale synoptic pattern is clearly unusual, what with the persistent -NAO; but how (if at all) will all that very warm air, down around the eastern Mediterranean affect things...? 

   

The GEFS 00Z ensembles don't really point toward anything in particular just yet, so we'll just have to hope that the -NAO persists...it has, after all, already defied myriad rumours of its demise!

   

   

And now for the 06Z!

Same. The ensembles don't have anything really below -5c at the moment, which is borderline enough in mid winter, let alone in the middle of November. If i started to see a few -10 runs appearing then it'd be a lot more interesting. Just looks like cool/cold rain. AO values down to -3/-5 are great, but if nothing comes of it then for me it might as well just stay unsettled.

[swfc]

Not to keen on the 6z GFS tbh post 144 hrs.very subtle changes aplenty ATM so guess it's a case of roll with it and endure the rain!!!

Edited November 4, 2019 by swfc

[jules216]

I have said it few times on this forum already, even if you have AO and possibly NAO tanking it does not have to mean anything if pressure patterns align poorly in Europe, just have a look at that anomalous high pressure in central/eastern Europe with above average temperatures, where you gonna get the real cold source from then in to UK? Very limited chances left. I had a look at EPS for my location and even at the end the mean is at +3C T850 very much above average. These cut of lows although they are running on the southerly tracking jet stream just park in vicinity of UK, the high pressure in eastern Europe block their progression eastwards enough to possibly engage with really cold uppers from north of Scandinavia. This has been the case since May, lots of blocking and yet warm Europe, apart from slightly below average Scandi and UK. I know its still early on in winter but short/medium term cold is out of reach at the moment.

Edited November 4, 2019 by jules216

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, jules216 said:

I have said it few times on this forum already, even if you have AO and possibly NAO tanking it does not have to mean anything if pressure patterns align poorly in Europe, just have a look at that anomalous high pressure in central/eastern Europe with above average temperatures, where you gonna get the real cold source from then in to UK? Very limited chances left. I had a look at EPS for my location and even at the end the mean is at +3C T850 very much above average. These cut of lows although they are running on the southerly tracking jet stream just park in vicinity of UK, the high pressure in eastern Europe block their progression eastwards enough to possibly engage with really cold uppers from north of Scandinavia. This has been the case since May, lots of blocking and yet warm Europe, apart from slightly below average Scandi and UK. I know its still early on in winter but short/medium term cold is out of reach at the moment.

Jules, its not early Winter, its the 4th of November...

6Z looks cool and unsettled for the UK with the Highlands seeing snow ...

 

 

[jules216]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Jules, its not early Winter, its the 4th of November...

6Z looks cool and unsettled for the UK with the Highlands seeing snow ...

 

 

I know its not yet winter, but 2nd half of November here is usually more wintry then 8 to 12C forecast by models. So its like a month already wasted in my eyes. For UK its different I know. Just fed up with the above average temperatures that are not going anywhere fast and  been with us for so long now.    

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, jules216 said:

I know its not yet winter, but 2nd half of November here is usually more wintry then 8 to 12C forecast by models. So its like a month already wasted in my eyes. For UK its different I know. Just fed up with the above average temperatures that are not going anywhere fast and  been with us for so long now.    

Your points on the nao-ao are valid along with the heights in the eastern areas of europe

 

 

Edited November 4, 2019 by swfc

[northwestsnow]

6z becomes colder and more settled longer term with a strong anticyclone across Scandy...

[Catacol]

16 minutes ago, jules216 said:

I know its not yet winter, but 2nd half of November here is usually more wintry then 8 to 12C forecast by models. So its like a month already wasted in my eyes. For UK its different I know. Just fed up with the above average temperatures that are not going anywhere fast and  been with us for so long now.    

Money in the bank for wave 2 vortex disruption. The longer that scandy anomaly remains in place the better..... Right now - given it is November - ice days and snow covered fields are not on the agenda here in the UK at all. I accept it can be different in mainland Europe given different synoptics, but it is still very very early...... and to have a truly epic spell we need long fetch north easterlies or easterlies brought in by high lat blocking in the right places. Which brings us back to the benefits of that scandy/euro anomaly and what it is going to do to the vortex. 

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

6z becomes colder and more settled longer term with a strong anticyclone across Scandy...

It  does  with heights into Scandi.  Also the minor warming in the strat is still showing    all good signs going forward.