Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[swfc]

EC looks ok at day ten altho imo a transient easterly.That subject to change either way

[nick sussex]

Nothing like some model disagreements to kick the season off.

The big 3 all handle the upstream pattern differently at day 6.

The ECM looks interesting at day 7 but the issue after that highlights the problem when low pressure anchors to the south rather than se , this allows milder air to head nw from the Med .

The cold air isn’t far away though , so energy heading se rather than south will help advect that into the UK.

The ECM parts ways later with the GFS.  By day ten they’re on a different planet , this I think is being effected by the MJO .

The GFS has a more amplified pattern over the west of Canada with the ECM flatter allowing the purple blob of doom to be let  of its leash as it heads towards Greenland.

Edited November 3, 2019 by nick sussex

[Frosty.]

A more satisfying..i.e colder look to the Ecm 12z operational longer term compared to the 0z!

Edited November 3, 2019 by JON SNOW

[The Eagle]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

EC looks ok at day ten altho imo a transient easterly.That subject to change either way

Northerly express probably setting up post 240 hrs but that's out in la la land.

 

A lot of water to go under bridge.

[tight isobar]

Ecm ends of synoptical high note..

And as again...that pooling looks ripe and perhaps prime!!!

Resolve of annomaly blocking formats the only real worry...although atm it's looking trough primmed for our shores!= and any reform of the usual limpet base for the vortex...@Canada plot...looks to possibly be a short affair...with bundles of room for drain and syphon!!!

Edited November 3, 2019 by tight isobar

[mb018538]

People need to not get carried away with a couple of GFS op runs that were bottom of the pack. Until it firms up then assume nothing!

[Mike Poole]

JMA at T192, big dog-eyes, and indeed head, over the whole NH:

Would like to see the next couple of frames on this one because it looks promising.  Of course I can see those frames, but they come out at a stupid hour...I'll catch up in the morning.  This run so far doesn't sit at odds with the others, so bank today's 12z and watch tomorrow?

Edited November 3, 2019 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

E m ends of synoptical high note..

And as again...that pooling looks ripe and perhaps prime!!!

Resolve of annomaly blocking formats the only real worry...although atm it's looking trough primmed for our shores!= and any reform of the usual limpet base for the vortex...@Canada plot...looks to possibly be a short affair...with bundles of room for drain and syphon!!!

 

 

The Easterly at the end of the ECM looks like it will end but be replaced with another cold blast of Polar Maritime or even Arctic / Arctic Maritime very quickly, rather than another Easterly.

[SMU]

Steady as she goes tonight -

Nothing pointing to any mild weather & plenty of cold opportunity.

No big -AO from ECM so divergence there.

Onto the 18z..

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

A more satisfying..i.e colder look to the Ecm 12z operational longer term compared to the 0z!

Nothing wrong with EC det for me mate.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

People need to not get carried away with a couple of GFS op runs that were bottom of the pack. Until it firms up then assume nothing!

We know that though, i haven't seen one single post saying a definite snow laden cold spell is on the way within any GFS op timeframe, i have to admit i am even sceptical about whether any blocking now is actually good news or whether an early strat / trop coupling would be better, given we would then have so much time to break it down with an SSW later on rather than have it couple mid Dec and then be reliant on an unlikely late beast like 2018, but you are still allowed to speculate on whats best or likelly to verify, thats the whole point of the discussion, to discuss how we might get to a cold spell eventually.

[tight isobar]

Yep..but the.... highlighted forms of flux and pressure grades are apparent!!=@starkly!!!

 

Take ya pick what way ya want your cold to come from!!!...@possibly

[That ECM]

As no one sent the link t168 ukmo anyone?

Edited November 3, 2019 by That ECM

[SMU]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

As no one sent the link t168 ukmo anyone?

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

[The Eagle]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

When do the UKMO charts update there?

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

When do the UKMO charts update there?

Probs around 9 ish

EPS out - Another drop in the AO mean around a similar time to the GFS-

Lowest set yet a smidge away from -3

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

When do the UKMO charts update there?

Soon.

[The Eagle]

Not the best at 168 hrs on that evidence for UKMO. 

 

Edited November 3, 2019 by The Eagle

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean gives me the same satisfying feeling that the operational did with temperatures trending below average which from this time of year = rather cold / cold..not a single sw'ly zephyr to be seen!

 

Edited November 3, 2019 by JON SNOW

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Probs around 9 ish

EPS out - Another drop in the AO mean around a similar time to the GFS-

Lowest set yet a smidge away from -3

1st half of November will prob return a neg AO ...

Probably having a bearing on the beahviour of the jetstream...

Really fascinating outputs for us geeks, already getting moaned at for weather watching and its only November!!

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

Not the best at 168 hrs on that evidence for UKMO. 

 

We always say this about that chart,it's what's lurking E/NE  of it.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

We always say this about that chart,it's what's lurking E/NE  of it.

I was just about to post exactly the same..

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Not the best at 168 hrs on that evidence for UKMO. 

 

To be honest those charts are garbage - there is no legend and no 500mb contours and the angle is crap and you cannot see anywhere near enough of the hemisphere.#

EDIT : and to add to that, is all that worth it to only see another 24 hours worth that you cannot see on the Northern hemisphere meteociel view.

Edited November 3, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[northwestsnow]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

To be honest those charts are garbage - there is no legend and no 500mb contours and the angle is crap and you cannot see anywhere near enough of the hemisphere.

Its good for the Atlantic but the bigger picture is missing.Im not a fan of it.

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its good for the Atlantic but the bigger picture is missing.Im not a fan of it.

They use  these charts for tracking Hurricanes and tropical storms

there is one at the moment in the NIO(North Indian Ocean)