Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 12z T336:

Split asunder!

In FI the 0z, 6z and 12z have all been different but one thing in common, vortex decimation!

Lows are sliding west of U.K., Svalbard HP is growing, this is close to a long drawn Siberian Easterly feed!! 

[Allseasons-Si]

That looks beautiful doesn't it

what a STONKER!!!

 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Not often you see a NH profile like that at the end of November! 1045 high over the North Pole! 

It’s the middle of nov Tim !

more inclined to take the NH profile more seriously on this gfs op as it’s much slower to a big neg AO split  

Edited November 3, 2019 by bluearmy

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes.Although that limpit trough took an eternity to shift mid run.

 

Might still deliver right at the end, i thought it would need a few goes of those lows / shortwaves shuffling and dumbelling first, the pattern to the East and North East is ripe for a beast, reminds me a bit of some of the runs before the late Feb 18 Easterly.

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS are a stonker, over half are likely to go on to have cracking NH patterns, might not show in graph form admittedly.

[Tim Bland]

Wish this run did go to the end of November! That low to our west will slide SE and drag in the  bitter cold from our East..Across a mild North Sea brining heavy snow from the east...Am I getting carried away!?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 12z T336:

Split asunder!

In FI the 0z, 6z and 12z have all been different but one thing in common, vortex decimation!

Remarkable Mike... And what a great picture of 2 huge feet about to either walk all over us, or kick us to United Kingdom come, if you pardon the pun... Great vortex separation all the same. 

[Jordan S]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Wish this run did go to the end of November! That low to our west will slide SE and drag in the  bitter cold from our East..Across a mild North Sea brining heavy snow from the east...Am I getting carried away!?

Mabye a little but who wouldn't with synoptics like those

Edited November 3, 2019 by jordan smith

[Mike Poole]

GFS 12z ends like this:

Sure from UK snow perspective this run has been nothing special, but we're not expecting anything before late Nov, right?  In terms of the NH it is massive, and such a pattern would give rise to possibilities into Dec, even as worst case scenario from here would take some considerable time I imagine for the strat vortex to override that kind of setup...obviously is T384, but given how the last 3 runs have set up, what I've said would probably apply, I think we're on to something.

[Methuselah]

12Z Operational is looking very good, for further-on down the line...An incipient stonker!!! A stonker-in-waiting even!!!

    

Not too bothered by the details, but it'd be a humdinger of a -NAO...were it to materialise!

[ArHu3]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 12z ends like this:

Sure from UK snow perspective this run has been nothing special, but we're not expecting anything before late Nov, right?  In terms of the NH it is massive, and such a pattern would give rise to possibilities into Dec, even as worst case scenario from here would take some considerable time I imagine for the strat vortex to override that kind of setup...obviously is T384, but given how the last 3 runs have set up, what I've said would probably apply, I think we're on to something.

we had a split mid-december 2017 (and 2016 iirc), the surprisingly recovered swiftly and with a vengeance even

[Met4Cast]

I've got November 2010 stuck in my head today 

Stunning outputs yet again!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

12Z Operational is looking very good, for further-on down the line...An incipient stonker!!! A stonker-in-waiting even!!!

    

Not too bothered by the details, but it'd be a humdinger of a -NAO...were it to materialise!

23 years to the day since the snowfest! '96 ruled

[The Eagle]

Everyone remain calm!

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

i just hope that the trop and strat can stay single from here until eternity

Or at least until a vortex split in Jan...

[Shere Khan]

Very happy with the latest runs. Typical autumnal weather on the way with temps mostly below average for next week. With no immediate sign of a return of the Atlantic, most should be happy. Great start to what I hope will be an active winter

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs op/control where the warmest of the pack but northern hemispheric wise was good

 

the control would be good from here

here are some juicy cherries picked out

P5

P20,7

ALL fl of coarse but nice to see,the UKMO is best of the bunch at 144 hrs.

 

[tight isobar]

As already well highlighted..

Some notable arming into the pole as we move through..

And it's a two phaser...as eyes continue-to cast to the north east as the expanse of ever building cold 'grows'...

 

Again some eye candy profiles on hand....and a continuation of ever growing catchy synoptics!!!

 

The ecm will be an' interesting watch...as this likely evolution. Of  blocking and placements unwrap!!!

 

An interesting mid/late November....to say the least...one would suspect!

[SLEETY]

Nice to see you tulight isobar wondered where you been.Lets hope the ECM keeps the theme of the NH profile!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Some cracking 12z ensembles.... If anything the mean is a tad lower than the 6z! P5 was a thing of beauty, plenty of other cold runs to, but this one literally brings an early Beast from the East.. - 8c widely with colder air not to far away... Hope this trend continues, or that we don't peak to early!!!! Nahhhhhh... Happy days.

[SMU]

GFS 12z despite the deep low to our NW at 192 bottomed out on AO at -5

The mean 00z >> 06z >> 12z ( lowest point ) has now gone from -3 to -4

 

[Mike Poole]

I'm having déjà vu!

I started following the model thread in 2011 (yes, after that Dec 2010 and maybe inspired by it), and I joined Netweather in 2013.  
Why am I having déjà vu, and to when?  A previous winter, maybe? No!
The answer is late April, early May 2018, the run up to summer.

I posted in this thread then that the model output I was seeing looked different to what I had seen before at the time of year in previous years and made some predictions about the coming summer based on that...

I'm thinking the same now...charts really haven't looked like this, in some probably immeasurable way, in November, to me.  And what haven't we had since 2011? A proper dose of early winter UK cold.  Hence my rapidly increasing interest this year, despite the long range models.

So what of the long range models?
OK, so they highlight a high likelihood (maybe 50%) of a totally +NAO mild and rain fest, but consider the position now compared to the last one of those we had, 2013/14.  GFS forecast at T156 vs same date 2013:

Look at the purples, totally different.  I think a 2013/14 repeat is highly unlikely, but what can explain the seasonal models consistent tendency to give this a high probability and a cold winter a low probability (but not zero,  note)?

I suspect the solar minimum may have something to do with it.  I know the models take into account solar radiation, of course they do!, however, the difference in power input to earth is as far as I know between solar minimum and maximum is a third or fourth significant figure effect, it doesn't seem by itself to be enough.  Is the reason why solar minimum seems to promote a meridional jet even fully known, let alone represented in the models?  Anyone know?  

From where we are now, nothing is certain, but I'm giving the chance of a cold winter a much higher shot than the 5% models seem to be saying...and failing that, I'm not seeing a wall to wall rain fest as remotely likely at all, a mixed of mild interspersed by cold would seem entirely possible in the middle ground.

 

Edited November 3, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z T168, going for the rabbit on roller skates going downhill look:

But big amplification so far, let's see how this one evolves...

[Methuselah]

Just for a wee bit of fun, here are the GEFS 12Zs for Moscow. There are some stonkers in them, too!

   

   

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Just for a wee bit of fun, here are the GEFS 12Zs for Moscow. There are some stonkers in them, too!

   

 

Depends what you class as stonkers - -10c uppers is bog standard for Moscow, just means daytime freezing temps which is pretty standard fare - wished we had their winter climate.