Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

I’d imagine the Norway cold crew are lovin the output recently , they’ve had a very cold October and looking at then next 10 days at least they’ll be froze over . The ensembles well below average and plenty of snow . Setting it up nicely if we get an easterly or north easterly .

96D3FF5A-7B92-4E76-926A-A97A713B6986.png

Yeah looks good,only slight caveat is I have seen that before where Scandinavia gets a cold Autumn followed by Winter,but the UK misses out on the cold weather,what with  our irritating location etc.

But Northern blocking looks to be increasing as we head towards Winter which can only increase our chances of a cold winter ahead.If you like cold winters of course..

Edited by SLEETY
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

REALLY fascinating synoptics at the moment.

One graph I always keep tabs on this time of year is the Bern SLP. Mainly because I will be skiing 150km to the SW during Xmas, but in doing so for the past few years, it is worth pointing out that we are often looking the mean line sat consistently at between 1030 and 1040. Nothing of the sort so far this year.  Diving SE jet prevails. Very promising viewing on many levels.

prmslBern.thumb.png.a42a9aa64074a54790c47b1040f9dace.png

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
5 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Chart of the day??

gfs_nh-namindex_20191103.thumb.png.cc318130be2c952bebda7621df6bb269.png

Compare that to just 4 days back...

gfs_nh-namindex_20191031.thumb.png.5fafaf11f5e20959edfad0ad4bcc5f8d.png

Just a quick one as i am laying the room floor...

i just hope that the trop and strat can stay single from here until eternity

the ICON is a better run than the 06z,hp into Greenland more pronounced. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
12 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Chart of the day??

gfs_nh-namindex_20191103.thumb.png.cc318130be2c952bebda7621df6bb269.png

Compare that to just 4 days back...

gfs_nh-namindex_20191031.thumb.png.5fafaf11f5e20959edfad0ad4bcc5f8d.png

Yes, think you beat me to it, just posted same in strat thread, but it's kind of expected after that GFS 0z run that it is from, that people were commenting on earlier...will be a good plot to follow day by day as we see whether this can get into the reliable...good signs...

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Just a quick one as i am laying the room floor...

i just hope that the trop and strat can stay single from here until eternity

the ICON is a better run than the 06z,hp into Greenland more pronounced. 

Yes, ICON delivers a good northerly flow across the west of UK at the end of the run, need a few more frames to see whether the cooler uppers get here:

image.thumb.jpg.10ea48c8c882cd772ecf2a1d49d6436f.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.52f5e0b475104c20f20f8499fde4f5aa.jpg

Lets see what the rest have to offer this afternoon...

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Jma showing a regular occurrence low pressure diving South East hanging over the UK filling then moving into the near continent as a filling feature that classic strong euro High doesn't seem interested atm. A quite cold northeastly behind the system at the end of the week.

1694125985_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_120(5).thumb.jpg.a2acec5b66a9e1f1ecff6246aa3fb1df.jpg

209721665_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_168(3).thumb.jpg.b27d51b847556947207cbd692078b3c6.jpg

757828995_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_192(3).thumb.jpg.0265b8f95f7cf7bb24f09ceed839742a.jpg

Edited by jordan smith
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Subtle changes on the GFS 12z early doors.heighths to the NNE slightly muted and flow from scan not as clean and further north

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Subtle changes on the GFS 12z early doors.heighths to the NNE slightly muted and flow from scan not as clean and further north

You.knew that was gona happen after that ricdiculous 06z op!!ukmo looks pretty good though!!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, swfc said:

Subtle changes on the GFS 12z early doors.heighths to the NNE slightly muted and flow from scan not as clean and further north

Its the Atlantic low that's the problem - that is what has buggered us on this run - its a bowling ball low rather than a negatively tilted elongated slider like the last run, it could still turn out decent though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

gfs 06 and 12z  to be fair nh profile is not that different except the deep low to our nw.

EF673E96-1C2D-4DC8-BE4D-A1EF7BDDA233.png

696E7FDA-0D48-417C-A146-C4D489246C2A.png

Edited by That ECM
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its the Atlantic low that's the problem - that is what has buggered us on this run - its a bowling ball low rather than a negatively tilted elongated slider like the last run, it could still turn out decent though.

Indeed but prior to that the heights are less pronounced to the nnw

Edited by swfc
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, That ECM said:

gfs 06 and 12z

EF673E96-1C2D-4DC8-BE4D-A1EF7BDDA233.png

696E7FDA-0D48-417C-A146-C4D489246C2A.png

Different, but the NH is still looking good which is key heading towards late Nov - just need to keep the trend now 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Different, but the NH is still looking good which is key heading towards late Nov - just need to keep the trend now 

Yes, I agree, absolutely the NH is much more important than local UK picture beyond day 8 or so (yes the low is horrible) but here T240, the trop vortex is marmalized again....

image.thumb.jpg.b64c0eeabf86712d2b13943287bcdf7a.jpg

Some more general thoughts about where we are from me later...

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Big difference on this particular run between UKMO and GFS at 144t.  Although the GFS shows energy over the Atlantic high it still retains the persistent strong ridge to the north for most of the run. Could easily flip back to what it was showing on the 06h run in the next few runs.  Lets see how ECM performs this evening.

C

untitled.png

GFSOPEU12_144_1.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Would someone put up the link for ukmo at t168 please? Lost it from last winter. TIA

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

GFS now looking decent late on, probably would deliver a potent Easterly but will run out of time before it does.

image.thumb.png.4789f53c0679326f853ee97750ce0bad.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

GFS 12z T336:

image.thumb.jpg.cd887fd4adae6ac24aa9487d6fde27d2.jpg

Split asunder!

In FI the 0z, 6z and 12z have all been different but one thing in common, vortex decimation!

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS now looking decent late on, probably would deliver a potent Easterly but will run out of time before it does.

image.thumb.png.4789f53c0679326f853ee97750ce0bad.png

Yes.Although that limpit trough took an eternity to shift mid run.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Not often you see a NH profile like that During the second half of November! 1045 high over the North Pole! 

1BB98BCB-F0B4-415C-8F8F-2B869FB49744.png

CA5504A5-90F5-44AB-8C32-9EA8306E8208.png

Edited by Tim Bland
  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...