Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[Tim Bland]

It was Only a matter of time before we saw charts like this.... 

Edited November 3, 2019 by Mapantz

[carinthian]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Quite a dramatic forecast chart that one if it comes off . However, I do know the persistence of the Greenland Sea / Norwegian Sea Ridge has been dominant  for some weeks now. This has in effect helped Norway to have its coldest October for 10 years. The charts below continue to show this still out to 120t with the 300mb wind jet diving on the poleward side and the upper cold intensifying to the NE. Could be a interesting first half to November with winter looking charts in the making. I will get a new snow portal forecast tomorrow morning from the team with specifics to highland Britain and locally over here , where currently it is very soggy and mild.

C

Further to the above post, the 850mb temperature profile chart below at day 10 continues to intensify the cold to the NE with most of Scandinavia well and truly in the freezer both day and night with colder air advecting into Blighty.

C

[swfc]

23 minutes ago, knocker said:

Come to that nor the previous two gfs runs. Oh my god

Seems knocker that folk are jumping the gun again,it's that time of year

[nick sussex]

The interesting outputs continue with low pressure continuing to track se through the UK , signs of pressure building to the east and the chance  of a possible east ne flow.

A lot hangs though on a clean separation of upstream energy  which heads se and allows some colder air in from the east.

We’re also seeing a dropping AO so a lot going on , could be an early taste of winter if things fall kindly .

 

[SMU]

Dropped into UKMO day 7 - on a similar wavelength to GFS

[Skullzrulerz]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Actually swfc in NW parlance it's known as 'hypers leap' very often followed by the 'downgrade trip'

I have to agree with this unfortunately as only from one set of runs this morning I do think it's a bit hyped up in here 

You need to near cross model agreement before anything else or some folk are going to be dispointed

Not to mention it's somewhat in the median/long term a lot of things can change for the better or worse 

[SMU]

Would you rather comment on something that isn't there...

Seems logical.

There is no hype - No ramping just people perhaps enjoying the output & a bit of nostalgia -

But of course heaven forbid people get carried away.

 

Edited November 3, 2019 by Norrance

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z I can't see much sign of sw'ly zephyrs but I can see plenty of cold potential, there are more positives than negatives..and I don't mean the NAO!

Edited November 3, 2019 by JON SNOW

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

I agree Steve...

Late Nov to Late Jan is my preferred zone, the shorter days/weak sun being critical.

6z rolling.

Late Jan - mid March for me when the Bristol Channel is at it's coldest, that for us here on the coast is often a 'make or break' to whether it'll be snow, sleet or just the plain old rain

[knocker]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Would you rather comment on something that isn't there...

Seems logical.

There is no hype - No ramping just people perhaps enjoying the output & a bit of nostalgia -

But of course heaven forbid people get carried away

 

It doesn't seem logical take to take the 0600 out of context with the previous two runs and the the ecm  After all it was only the other day when you stated 'bin the 0600' because it didn't agree with your preferred outcome.

 

Edited November 3, 2019 by Paul

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

It doesn't seem logical take to take the 0600 out of context with the previous two runs and the the ecm  After all it was only the other day when you stated 'bin the 0600' because it didn't agree with your preferred outcome.

I certainly wouldn't forbid people getting carried away

Have to agree that the evolution of gfs week 2 NH profile seems way too progressive for over analysis ......thank goodness it’s only just November ! 

[SMU]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

It doesn't seem logical take to take the 0600 out of context with the previous two runs and the the ecm  After all it was only the other day when you stated 'bin the 0600' because it didn't agree with your preferred outcome.

I certainly wouldn't forbid people getting carried away

You would bin the run when it goes from one modality to another in the timeline of 144-192 like the 06z often does

However when the runs are so comparable like for like then consistency is far better than inconsistency 

Also the Hemispherically the 06z is in pretty good tandem with the the 00z relating to blocking potential- at the day 10 lead time location isn't as much of a key as depth & consistency.

It could be wrong but that of course is why we say usual caveats apply.

Just off the press the GEFS 00z V 06z

nb 12-13 Nov a further dip now ~ -3.2 which is indeed lower than 00z but comparable. People are welcome to rock up with all their comments but I dont actually see any model images that back the statements up other than the usual it wont happen broad brush remarks.

Edited November 3, 2019 by Norrance

[Methuselah]

As anticipated, the GFS 06Z Op. has lurched toward the colder side of the ensembles, once again. Where are the swingometers!

    

    

Given what transpired, last year, I am surprised how Day 10 charts are still awarded such credibility...? But, they are interesting nonetheless!

[IDO]

With the GFS "snowmaggedon" upgrade we have in effect a de facto ECM D8-D10 scenario with GFS FI going through this winter. There will be a lot of despondency if we take these literally, but based on the GFS new version (nGFS) last year, it did over-hype potential blocking/cold so it may be prudent to await cross-model support before we get too excited.

We can see from the GFS 00z to 06z that the yellows ML-HL have been watered down suggesting it was over-doing that warmth heading north. The 06z ensembles suggest that further downgrades in that respect will follow.

Of course, this may be the onetime the nGFS is not over progressive in FI. Certainly looking past D8 on nGFS is going to be interesting this Winter if nothing else!

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, IDO said:

With the GFS "snowmaggedon" upgrade we have in effect a de facto ECM D8-D10 scenario with GFS FI going through this winter. There will be a lot of despondency if we take these literally, but based on the GFS new version (nGFS) last year, it did over-hype potential blocking/cold so it may be prudent to await cross-model support before we get too excited.

We can see from the GFS 00z to 06z that the yellows ML-HL have been watered down suggesting it was over-doing that warmth heading north. The 06z ensembles suggest that further downgrades in that respect will follow.

Of course, this may be the onetime the nGFS is not over progressive in FI. Certainly looking past D8 on nGFS is going to be interesting this Winter if nothing else!

Not sure i follow, the GFS is known for a Westerly powerful Jetstream bias, which is the definition of progression.

[IDO]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure i follow, the GFS is known for a Westerly powerful Jetstream bias, which is the definition of progression.

It depends on where we are, if there is a defined westerly flow, it tends to be over-progressive, but since the new version, it is over-progressive with the blocking features (as possibly in this case?) when it spots a pattern change. These are of course unintentional "bias'", but there never the less.

[SMU]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

It depends on where we are, if there is a defined westerly flow, it tends to be over-progressive, but since the new version, it is over-progressive with the blocking features (as possibly in this case?) when it spots a pattern change. These are of course unintentional "bias'", but there never the less.

Possibly could be the case !

Heres the 06z AO run.

Sadly I have no final figure as its off the scale.

[bluearmy]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure i follow, the GFS is known for a Westerly powerful Jetstream bias, which is the definition of progression.

 

3 minutes ago, IDO said:

It depends on where we are, if there is a defined westerly flow, it tends to be over-progressive, but since the new version, it is over-progressive with the blocking features (as possibly in this case?) when it spots a pattern change. These are of course unintentional "bias'", but there never the less.

To clarify, I used the word ‘progressive’ in relation to the direction of travel and not limited to a westerly flow return where its usually referenced 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

It depends on where we are, if there is a defined westerly flow, it tends to be over-progressive, but since the new version, it is over-progressive with the blocking features (as possibly in this case?) when it spots a pattern change. These are of course unintentional "bias'", but there never the less.

Right - sorry, you mean progression as in terms of timeframe of a pattern change as opposed to progression and retrogression meaning Eastward and Westward movement of air masses.

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Possibly could be the case !

Heres the 06z AO run.

Sadly I have no final figure as its off the scale.

Unbelievable - wouldn't have thought it would have beaten the 0z but it has!

6z

0z

 

Edited November 3, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[IDO]

23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

To clarify, I used the word ‘progressive’ in relation to the direction of travel and not limited to a westerly flow return where its usually referenced 

...me to!

[ICE COLD]

I’d imagine the Norway cold crew are lovin the output recently , they’ve had a very cold October and looking at then next 10 days at least they’ll be froze over . The ensembles well below average and plenty of snow . Setting it up nicely if we get an easterly or north easterly .

[IDO]

24 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Right - sorry, you mean progression as in terms of timeframe of a pattern change as opposed to progression and retrogression meaning Eastward and Westward movement of air masses.

..yes, sorry about that, using layman's terminology when maybe more technical wording would have been open to less misinterpretation! 

[MR EXTREMES]

ao tanking bit like 09/10.

looking at past tanked ao,s there is no doubt with low solar output and teleconnections coming together seem to influence the onset of cold winters.

but past years look at the tanked ao but to get tanked ao and nao at the same time would increase chances even more.

at the moment both index have a little negativity although this only based on model predictions.

my money is on continuation of current theme for awhile longer.

if we lose northern blocking i do feel that 2014 wet wild winter.

although northern areas did ok in winter 2014 which was dominated by northwesterly type flow.

but so far its a nail biter good job its not winter yet.

better stock up on prozac and hope we get the infamous strong northern blocking.

so far so good cant wait for the 12z. 

[summer blizzard]

Although the Euro and GFS have not been in sync for several days it is interesting that the GFS has support from the UKMO.

At any rate, this kind of chart is insane for the time of year.