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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

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A new shiny thread for the new Month and the run up to Winter.... The Models are certainly showing a seasonal Autumnal new week ahead, With some cooler air pushing down from the North turning N/Ely with showers or longer spells of rain and some wintry potential for the North. But what next?

Please keep discussion on topic and respectful in here, And where possible post charts to back up posts. There are other threads open for lighter discussion and general weather related chit/chat

If you're wanting comment on the upcoming winter, please head to the winter speculation thread:

For Autumn weather chat or to have a good moan or ramp, please use the Autumn thread:

All Charts and data can be found here on Netweather:

 

Ok, Onwards and upwards.. Please continue 😊

Old thread here :

 

Edited by Polar Maritime

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It's quite a long way out at 10 days away but we might as well cheer ourselves up with a couple of nice chilly charts showing potential for easterlies:.   ECM +240h

image.thumb.gif.f01c3a26b7aac7597b8364e0fb69e143.gif   image.thumb.gif.87f644d3e83fd75579c5a36a6066aa16.gif

Must be said that the other models don't show this set-up - as yet!

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15 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS 162

The deep blues edge closer from the NE

243C113C-8B72-433F-AF8C-E23566AD7B91.thumb.png.702c96935686c8ab7caa35ac5ef9a6d9.png

Yes - tantalising, those Breakfast at tiffany's have stalled and just can't get over the line.

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Oh dear...The 12Z Operational looks destined for the Recycle Bin of Doom!:oldgrin:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Let's see what the GEFS ensembles have to say?

 

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5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

 

Let's see what the GEFS ensembles have to say?

 

Very ordinary.

image.thumb.png.7aa47d93e9b51bd7760f950491b95a71.png

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8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh dear...The 12Z Operational looks destined for the Recycle Bin of Doom!:oldgrin:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Let's see what the GEFS ensembles have to say?

 

That's inline with some of the forecasts for milder weather to return around mid month, too.

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16 minutes ago, Don said:

That's inline with some of the forecasts for milder weather to return around mid month, too.

That’s 16 days a way dreamland..

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2 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

That’s 16 days a way dreamland..

Anything more than a week needs to be taken with a pinch of salt!

Edited by prolongedSnowLover

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2 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Good job it’s an outlier at the end!

B2A0DB81-3CF1-4226-84BD-0AF4D5C1B23B.png

Lets hope that outlier doesn't become a trend!

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38 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

I doubt the GFS op is that clever to be so good at that lead time!

It just looks like a big standard autumn run to me? Have you a different take on things,tia

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Just now, swfc said:

It just looks like a big standard autumn run to me? Have you a different take on things,tia

Not sure if it’s that standard the way the jets going further South than normal in the coming 10 days.

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ECM 12z looks like going it’s own merry way , in a good cold way . 

C967A668-31E2-48F5-9A73-BF76912F5439.png

25B36A14-B62E-4C1F-835F-58A343E76C3E.png

7E24BCF2-8055-409F-BFC9-50A7731595E7.png

Edited by ICE COLD

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19 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Not sure if it’s that standard the way the jets going further South than normal in the coming 10 days.

Absolutely, this is not standard. Peer out of the window and the rain and wind outside may well indicate a typical zonal autumn scenario but that doesn't tell the whole story. The tendancy continues unabated for the southern arm of the PFJ to dominate. If this is maintained, patience will very likely be rewarded.

 

Edited by s4lancia

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No significant changes with the EPS ext mean anomaly this evening

Still quite amplified upstream with the Alaskan ridge and TPV/trough Northern Canada/eastern N. America and a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard. But again the flow diverges and abates considerable to the west of the UK courtesy of the anomalously positive European ridge stretching through northern Scandinavia and the the UK trough that has now been relegated south into Iberia. All of this results in a slack gradient over the UK which, as has been mentioned previously, indicates a tricky surface analysis to be sorted by the det runs Temps a tad below average

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-3905600.thumb.png.bca464db759f16a464178e9be993ad6a.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-3927200.thumb.png.5c99efe8b1451e3e23761034e676071c.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-uk-t2m_c_anom_5day-3905600.thumb.png.ee0e2f4f97d86fd47a033e7ccbf5ed74.png

NOAA n the same ball park

814day_03.thumb.gif.3d68ccc271f864a2eeb03abcccfb92db.gif

 

Edited by knocker

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Well I think tonight is the first evening for quite a while where the models appear to be settling on a return of the pv over Greenland. It's been the first ECM for a long time that has a poor FI  (not that FI matters in all honesty)

It's been an interesting Autumn sofar that holds tentative signs of maybe a colder Winter ahead. Let's get through the next couple of weeks and see where we are when Winter proper begins

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12 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Well I think tonight is the first evening for quite a while where the models appear to be settling on a return of the pv over Greenland. It's been the first ECM for a long time that has a poor FI  (not that FI matters in all honesty)

It's been an interesting Autumn sofar that holds tentative signs of maybe a colder Winter ahead. Let's get through the next couple of weeks and see where we are when Winter proper begins

Well let's hope that the Scandi heights can hold longer term because I cannot see how we can maintain any sort of Greenland/Iceland +ve height anomaly going forward. IF (and it's a big if) we see the N arm of the jet start to tighten up, we will likely see heights to our E pushed further S and we'll be in big trouble as far as December is concerned. I would imagine the resultant pattern would be reminiscent of the GLOSEA output.

We need some wave 2 action to impact on the PV going forward- IF we don't get it, we'll be looking beyond Christmas for winter IMO.

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22 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Well I think tonight is the first evening for quite a while where the models appear to be settling on a return of the pv over Greenland. It's been the first ECM for a long time that has a poor FI  (not that FI matters in all honesty)

It's been an interesting Autumn sofar that holds tentative signs of maybe a colder Winter ahead. Let's get through the next couple of weeks and see where we are when Winter proper begins

i think all models seemed to flip tonight most likely due to a powering up vortex.

but all the time scandi has space for some type of heights then this will disrupt an already erratic start vortex.

but are very close to a cold spell.

1794730417_ECM0-216(3).thumb.gif.57d98f89acd2de7d5215a8308ae1fc7b.gif

if we keep getting the dive bombing lows nw to se we still in with a chance.

amongst other drivers to.

also been a few years where scandi blocking has been underestimated,

and at this type of timeframe it unlikely to be on the money totally.

might also be the year the soi and easterly qbo make entrance to the winter parade.

Edited by MR EXTREMES

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1 hour ago, s4lancia said:

Absolutely, this is not standard. Peer out of the window and the rain and wind outside may well indicate a typical zonal autumn scenario but that doesn't tell the whole story. The tendancy continues unabated for the southern arm of the PFJ to dominate. If this is maintained, patience will very likely be rewarded.

 

totally agree this type of pattern and erratic changes plus the southerly tracking jet.

and of coarse was a feature in 2009 and 2010 winter.

there are similarities definitely at the moment anyway. 

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The overall position re midterm November prospects hasn't altered much today, here 12z T240 charts:

image.thumb.jpg.263bf9b3e0b8ea63e2e26f2bf1e7ecd9.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.6f7209a3a4d58b1f547557ba282fb875.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.d7f014f2d781f5e184c40cec415f05a2.jpg

Im not bothered so much about the UK detail at this range (and indeed this early in the season), but the only thing in common about the above runs is a disorganised trop vortex.  GEFS at same time:

 gens_panel_vxx9.png

So the first worry would be about the strat vortex imprinting on the trop and killing off the first half of winter, but this doesn't seem to be happening yet, here NAM plot from stratobserve.com 

image.thumb.jpg.64bb78963c060d08922173bc0692524b.jpg

Interpretation, red plus values in the strat indicative of a "positive AO" at that level of the atmosphere, but close to surface and forecast to increase (by GFS anyway) blue minus values indicate a continued negative AO....so the stand off continues.  

Edited by Mike Poole

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Looks like some sort of settling down period could very well be on the cards as we head towards mid-month with the by now all too familiar nw/se trajectory of low pressure systems becoming less pronounced. Looking likely that heights to the southwest could once more have a role to play in this with the jet being pushed back slightly further north. As highlighted already this evening, it's not the best Ecm run of late with regards to FI  

ecm 10 nov.JPG

ecm 11 nov.JPG

ecm 12 nov.JPG

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50 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

Looks like some sort of settling down period could very well be on the cards as we head towards mid-month with the by now all too familiar nw/se trajectory of low pressure systems becoming less pronounced. Looking likely that heights to the southwest could once more have a role to play in this with the jet being pushed back slightly further north. As highlighted already this evening, it's not the best Ecm run of late with regards to FI  

ecm 10 nov.JPG

ecm 11 nov.JPG

ecm 12 nov.JPG

There’s still some trough disruption shown on the Ecm far from normal for early November. Expect to see further disruption

2EF6D60F-DDDB-4B44-89E0-1C0C529FBC25.png

Edited by prolongedSnowLover

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Strat winds are going from near record high next week to record low by early Dec according to the CFS! This would be very good news for the start of winter. 18z GFS is another close but no cigar run for medium term cold. PV is still disorganised though and if this continues and the below slow down occurs...we could be in business! 

9DC55CD1-CB38-40E8-BC3F-2539798B9CF2.png

Edited by Tim Bland

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