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Roger J Smith

November 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

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1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Probably finish around 6.2 - 6.5c after corrections.

It will finish below 6.5 before corrections.

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Sunny Sheffield up to 5.6C -1.5C degrees below normal, Rainfall 223.3mm 281.2% of average

The mild spell was actually stronger than I thought it would be and has pushed the average up quite a bit. Need some really cold nights to cancel it out now.

Edited by The PIT

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7 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It will finish below 6.5 before corrections.

Will probably have a similar CET to December.

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2 minutes ago, Don said:

Will probably have a similar CET to December.

usually i would say yes, but the zonality does have a NW - SE jet signature this time.

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We're probably looking at the first Autumn since 2012 below the 61-90 mean.

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6.8c to the 28th

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 10.6c to the 1st

Current low this month 6.2c to the 21st, 22nd & 23rd

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EWP was 133 mm to 27th and likely added 3-4 since then. It may add a bit in the southwest tomorrow but for now, I have reset the scoring file to 138 mm. (attached)

Will confirm or amend this on 2nd of December when provisional totals are posted. Then final results of contest on 5th with confirmed data. 

Best combined forecast this month will depend on the final adjustment of CET, could be Blast from the Past (currently 2nd EWP and could be in top ten of CET at 6.6). Don also in the hunt at 6.2 and 135 mm. Feb91Blizzard as he's been saying might be a bit too mild at 7.0 although his EWP (138 mm) is provisionally highest score.

EWP20182019NOV.xlsx

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Sunny Sheffield still at 5.6C -1.5C below normal. Rainfall at 226.2mm 284.9% of the monthly average. Looks like we will end up at 5,4C to 5.5C for the month and with no further rain forecast it will remain the 2nd  wettest on record.

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Probably see a slight drop today and tomorrow CET mean, with a finish of either 6.6 or 6.7 degrees, expecting marked downward correction possibly up to 0.4 degrees, returning a final figure of either 6.2 or 6.3 - a below average month, and fitting given we haven't really had much mild weather apart from opening days and very recently, the majority of the month has been average or a fair bit below average.

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When was the last time we had two below average months in a row? 

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18 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

When was the last time we had two below average months in a row? 

Depends on which average, but the answers would appear to be:

(a) below 1981-2010 normal __ May June 2019

(b) below 1961-1990 normal __ Feb Mar 2018

(May June 2019 and Sep Oct 2018 were both close calls relative to 1961-90 but seem to have missed out on the basis of one month being only tied and the other +0.1 relative to normal).

Here's an absolute benchmark, the last time two consecutive months were colder than the coldest ever 30-year running means would be May-June 2013 which were 10.4, 13.6 vs 10.6, 13.8. Even Nov-Dec 2010 couldn't break that one as Nov 2010 equalled the coldest 30-year average for November (5.2). The same is true of Dec 2009 - Jan 2010 with Dec (3.1) matching the lowest ever 30-year December average. (Jan 2010 easily slipped in under the lowest Jan average of 2.0 which was 1795-1824).

 

 

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I don't see the anomaly tracker posted today so ...

6.7 to the 29th 

bang on the 1961-1990 normal value (1-29 Nov)

0.5 below the 1981-2010 normal value (1-29 Nov)

Cold enough that finish is very likely to be 6.6 considering that the 6.7 is rounded from 6.66 anyway. But the next number we discuss won't be that, it will be 6.2 to 6.5 most likely the range of adjusted values for the final monthly value. Outside chances for 6.1 and 6.6 I suppose. 

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In the provisional CET values, only two reached or exceeded 10.0. That was also the case in Nov 2016. The past two have seen ten (2018) and five (2017), while very mild 2015 saw 15.

In recent years, only Nov 2013 had fewer (one day, the first of the month). Nov 2014 had seven. 

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A marked downward correction again. A comfortably below average month as well (0.5 degrees at least).

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Sunny Sheffield finished on 5.4C -1.4C below normal. Rainfall finished on 226.3mm 285% of average.

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EWP will finish on 137 or perhaps 138 mm, it was 137 mm to 29th and yesterday added only small amounts outside of Cornwall which had 10-20 mm falls. Either way, Feb1991Blizzard has the closest forecast at 138 mm. Will confirm those details tomorrow when they post a provisional value for the month. 

Meanwhile, from the table of entries, this is my pre-confirmation list of top CET scores in order. Don clearly has the best combined forecast as he scored fourth highest points in EWP as well as taking the top CET score. I have left in the EWP values of these top 18 CET scores. 

Fcst _ Error __ EWP __ Forecaster (order of entry)

 

6.2 __ 0.0 ___ 135.0 __ Don (56) 

6.1 __--0.1 ____69.0 __ nn2013 (5) 

6.3 __+0.1 ___ 122.2 __Kirkcaldy Weather (13)

6.3 __+0.1 ___ ------ ___Quicksilver1989 (63) 

6.0 __--0.2 ___ ------ __ Duncan McAlister (16) 

6.4 __+0.2 ___ 112.5 __ Polar Gael (22) 

6.4 __+0.2 ____77.0 __ timmytour (30) 

6.4 __+0.2 ___ ------ __ Prolonged SnowLover (53)

6.4 __+0.2 ____79.0 __ Mulzy (57) 

6.5 __+0.3 ____97.0 __ Stargazer (39) 

6.5 __+0.3 ___ 125.0 __ DAVID SNOW (45)

6.5 __+0.3 ____90.0 __ Norrance (47) 

5.8 __--0.4 ___ ------ __ Walsall Wood Snow (20)

6.6 __+0.4 ___ 140.0 __ Blast from the Past (31)

6.6 __+0.4 ____90.0 __ weather-history (38)

5.8 __--0.4 ___ 155.0 __ jonboy (40) 

5.8 __--0.4 ____85.0 __ Steve Murr (46) 

6.6 __+0.4 ____96.0 __ daniel* (61) 

==================================================

I will update the robotic forecaster saga later. 

Edited by Roger J Smith

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Would have definitely swapped my EWP to have a high scoring CET as inside top 10 and will probably drop out, where as EWP nowhere so even win won't bump me up that high, strange one, started off well in EWP - up to 4th at one stage where as my CET was as low as 30 odd at one point, then complete reversal in the second half of calendar year, had 2 x 0.1 error's and 1 x 0.2, in fact wouldn't mind betting i would probably be nearly at the top of CET's for the second half of calendar year - left myself too much to do after the crippling February though.

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Monthly

Only one played this month, got it spot on. So well done to Don.
Three others were 0.1c out, nn2013, Kirkcaldy Weather and Quicksilver1989.

image.thumb.png.0377752909b88dc8aa4bcfc6416a6b7d.png

Seasonal

A complete change of the Top 3.
1. nn2013 2. DiagonalRedLine 3. Weather-history

image.thumb.png.4dd1ccaee558c912f787a02fef029317.png

Overall

image.png

No change in the Top 3.

Quicksilver1989 wins from Stationary Front with The PIT in 3rd. 😀😎:yahoo:

A massive well done to Quicksilver who has led continuously since June.

Excel Spreadsheet

Nov 19 CET - Sent.xlsx

Edited by J10

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Well done @Quicksilver1989

Top 10 finish for me - a little disappointed as feel i could have done better in terms of me stupidly persisting with my last minute entries but still being determined to get a unique number in the first half of year, although February the real crippler for me and couldn't have done anything about that, ironically i have now lowered my Dec forecast by a degree instead of maintaining a unique number and the models have flipped towards a less cold December!

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Nice to have a good result for both CET and rainfall.  I hope my December CET guess isn't looking too low already, though!

Edited by Don

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At 6.2c, November 2019 shares the same mean CET with November's:

1734

1761

1776

1783

1927

1930

1944

1989

1998

2005

2013

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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27 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

At 6.2c, November 2019 shares the same mean CET with November's:

1734

1761

1776

1783

1927

1930

1944

1989

1998

2005

2013

 

 

Oh dear.

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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Oh dear.

Yes, not a good sign from 6.2C, is it?  Two stinkers, one mild and one benign boring winter.......

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Oh dear.

I know, but at least 2005 was followed by a coldish Winter I think, though it wasn't very snowy round here at least. 

Good job Winter conditions aren't determined by the November CET figures.

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