November 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I think 5.8 to 6.2c could be the landing zone if the cold spell starts next Thursday as being modelled currently. Any rises in the next few days will be small and should be cancelled out by the last 3 days.

Edited November 22, 2019 by prolongedSnowLover

[summer blizzard]

Gavin in the other realm is estimating 6.33C as the closing value. 

[Summer Sun]

6.2c to the 22nd

0.8c below the 61 to 90 average

1.4c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 10.6c to the 1st

Current low this month 6.2c to the 21st & 22nd

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Gavin in the other realm is estimating 6.33C as the closing value. 

I'm getting 6.61c before corrections (taking Coventry's predicted temperatures from MetO).

Edited November 23, 2019 by prolongedSnowLover

[Don]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Gavin in the other realm is estimating 6.33C as the closing value. 

My 6.2C guess could be close this month.

[snowray]

3 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Gavin in the other realm is estimating 6.33C as the closing value. 

Is that before or after corrections?

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 5C -2.8C below normal. Rainfall 198.9mm 250.5% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

6.2c to the 23rd

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average

1.3c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 10.6c to the 1st

Current low this month 6.2c to the 21st, 22nd & 23rd

[snowray]

6.3c probably tomorrow, looks like we are not going to see much of a rise though to the end of the month, and colder weather likely back on the scene for the last two days.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 5C -2.7C below average. Rainfall 204.8mm  257.9% of the average.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP projection continues to be around 150 mm with 107 mm to 21st, 5-8 mm likely down since then, and GFS 156 mm to end of month showing 30-40 mm potential. Contest leader BFTV already guaranteed a win but going for the exclamation point of a very high score this month. 

[summer blizzard]

All three Autumn months above 100m then and two above 150mm.

[Summer Sun]

6.3c to the 24th

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average

1.1c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 10.6c to the 1st

Current low this month 6.2c to the 21st, 22nd & 23rd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back up to 5.2C -2.4C below normal. Rainfall 205.3mm 258.6% of the monthly average. Looking like we will end up about 5.3C so the mild spell not doing much damage. Rainfall with low going further south will mean less rain for us so probably ending up at around 220mm for the month.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP projections have fallen today to 135 mm (currently about 115 mm, 132h accum rainfall from 12z GFS only about 20 mm). 

This will be one of the few autumns to see over 120 mm in each month. The only others are 1794, 1935 and 2000. (1960 came close with 117.8 in Sep the lowest amount).

With about 389 mm already fallen, these are the top ten autumns and 2019 can nestle in among them somewhere, probably around 5th place. 1794 that was mentioned as consistently above 120 mm only made it to 19th place.

 

2000 _ 502.7

1852 _ 455.8

1960 _ 438.6

1935 _ 424.1

2019 _ 410 est

1770 _ 402.4

1772 _ 400.6

1875 _ 399.1

1768 _ 398.7

1799 _ 396.9

1976 _ 396.8

___________________________

In terms of an overall wet year, assuming 135 mm for November (total then 971 mm) 2019 will need 200 mm in December to finish 7th overall, and would finish 11th with 150 mm and 28th overall (since 1766) with just an average 100 mm. To catch 1872, the wettest year, December would need an astonishing 314 mm and to catch 2012 (third wettest and most recent top ten) 273 mm. 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

6.5c to the 25th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average

0.9c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 10.6c to the 1st

Current low this month 6.2c to the 21st, 22nd & 23rd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 5.3C -2.2C below normal. Rainfall at a silly 211.5mm 266% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

6.7c to the 26th

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 10.6c to the 1st

Current low this month 6.2c to the 21st, 22nd & 23rd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 5.4C -2C below normal. Rainfall 216.7mm 272.9% of the monthly average.

[Don]

7 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

6.7c to the 26th

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 10.6c to the 1st

Current low this month 6.2c to the 21st, 22nd & 23rd

November perhaps not looking as cold as thought now with this week’s milder weather.

Edited November 27, 2019 by Don

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, Don said:

November perhaps not looking as cold as thought now with this week’s milder weather.

My 7 is out of the question but i am just now hoping to be close enough to get a top 10 finish in the annual.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, Don said:

November perhaps not looking as cold as thought now with this week’s milder weather.

Always likely to turn milder in last week as jet and PV beef up,

[Summer Sun]

6.7c to the 27th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 10.6c to the 1st

Current low this month 6.2c to the 21st, 22nd & 23rd

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Probably finish around 6.2 - 6.5c after corrections.

[Don]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Probably finish around 6.2 - 6.5c after corrections.

Come in 6.2C!