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November 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Monthly Only one played this month, got it spot on. So well done to Don. Three others were 0.1c out, nn2013, Kirkcaldy Weather and Quicksilver1989. Seasonal A complete change of

EWP will finish on 137 or perhaps 138 mm, it was 137 mm to 29th and yesterday added only small amounts outside of Cornwall which had 10-20 mm falls. Either way, Feb1991Blizzard has the closest forecas

November confirmed as 6.2 https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

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8.6c to be the 6th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 10.6c to be the 1st

Current low this month 8.6c to be the 6th

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EWP had reached 28 mm by end of 5th, has probably added about 10 mm to start of GFS 10-day estimate (12z today) in which it adds a further 30-40. That could easily turn out higher as a lot of concentrations of heavier rainfall are shown just offshore to the south, east and west. Then days 11 to 16 of the GFS would add perhaps 20 mm with a wet looking system approaching at the end of the run. If I just took climatology for the days beyond the GFS run the grand total would be something around 120-130 mm, not exceptional considering that the recent 30-year averages are in the 100-105 mm range. But I would think there's more upside than downside error potential in that estimate. 

As to the CET I would estimate that is going to fall steadily next week to reach about 6.0 then level off with variations around that figure, anything from 5.5 to 6.5 probably looking best at this early stage. 

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1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP had reached 28 mm by end of 5th, has probably added about 10 mm to start of GFS 10-day estimate (12z today) in which it adds a further 30-40. That could easily turn out higher as a lot of concentrations of heavier rainfall are shown just offshore to the south, east and west. Then days 11 to 16 of the GFS would add perhaps 20 mm with a wet looking system approaching at the end of the run. If I just took climatology for the days beyond the GFS run the grand total would be something around 120-130 mm, not exceptional considering that the recent 30-year averages are in the 100-105 mm range. But I would think there's more upside than downside error potential in that estimate. 

As to the CET I would estimate that is going to fall steadily next week to reach about 6.0 then level off with variations around that figure, anything from 5.5 to 6.5 probably looking best at this early stage. 

Agree with that, my 7 wont come true now, i think around 5.8, my EWP of 130 odd will be high but not massively so - should still hit 100mm

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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8.2c to be the 7th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average

0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 10.6c to be the 1st

Current low this month 8.2c to be the 7th

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EWP updated to 40 mm for 6th, then on 7th as PIT indicated a very heavy fall in parts of Yorkshire but that only covered about 20% of the grid, would estimate they might add 10 mm for the 7th. The ten-day GFS continues to show rather light amounts in the north, heavier in the southwest, an average would be 25-30 mm. However, days 11 to 16 on the GFS look rather wet, good for another 20-30 and a heavy rainfall event shown approaching (for day 17). So adding it all up the total by about the 25th could be close to 130 mm. Guesses between 120 and 170 are probably favoured at this stage. The CET continues to look quite cold through the period and seems headed for the 5 to 6 range. 

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7.9c to the 8th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average

0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 10.6c to the 1st

Current low this month 7.9c to the 8th

Edited by Summer Sun
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Yesterday was a notably cold day - akin to the depths of mid-winter, after minimum below 0 degrees, many places struggled to get above 5 degrees, returning a mean close to 2.5 degrees.

CET set to continue to fall over the foreseeable, meaning we are likely to be significantly below the average come mid month.

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First pause at Sunny Sheffield temp staying at 5.8C -3.4C below average. Rainfall 127.4mm 160.5% of the monthly average.

Looking at the GFS suggests little change temperature wise this week although rainfall is likely to keep going up. Certainly looks like a record breaking autumn rain wise. Could also be an odd month where it's well below average but not a single flake of snow to fall. Actually looking at the GFS the end of the month looks like switching back to very mild conditions so we may end up average yet.

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EWP projections ... 56 to 9th, 6 mm est 10th, 40-50 mm avg 11th-21st, 25-35 mm 22nd to 27th (end of GFS run), 10 mm possible 28th-30th ... grand total 137-157 mm.

Probably a more reasonable idea of the range of possible outcomes would be 100-200 mm as there appears to be somewhat more upside than downside error potential in this pattern, any given system ten to twenty days out could prove more robust than indicated if it became slow-moving under good upper support. 

The CET would likely fall below 6 C by 21st then level off or even make a slight recovery although the mild potential of the pattern shown is limited (a few days between 7 and 9 C possibly near the end of the current 16-day run). Disclaimer: subjective bias may be rampant here (my forecasts were 5.6 and 170.4 mm). 

 

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I believe there is a mild blip coming, maybe after 20th, but it’s coming.  Not despondent about that, as I’m not looking East but North for cold.  Have had so much to do LRF just way down the list.  But wet and continuing cold...mild to come then December.  The way Nov is going.....I’m hopeful for front loaded winter

 

BFTP

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No sign of any mild weather to come in the reliable time frame,so I'm going to  be miles out in my prediction.

Now when was the last time we had two CET months in a row below average ,get enough above average months,but hardly any the other way till now.

Something is definitely up with the Atmosphere this year.

Edited by SLEETY
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8 hours ago, SLEETY said:

No sign of any mild weather to come in the reliable time frame,so I'm going to  be miles out in my prediction.

Now when was the last time we had two CET months in a row below average ,get enough above average months,but hardly any the other way till now.

Something is definitely up with the Atmosphere this year.

February and March 2018 were the last two consecutive months appreciably below the 1961-90 average.

Edited by Relativistic
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8 hours ago, SLEETY said:

No sign of any mild weather to come in the reliable time frame,so I'm going to  be miles out in my prediction.

Now when was the last time we had two CET months in a row below average ,get enough above average months,but hardly any the other way till now.

Something is definitely up with the Atmosphere this year.

May-June and last Sep-Oct for the 1981-2010 average.

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