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November 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Monthly Only one played this month, got it spot on. So well done to Don. Three others were 0.1c out, nn2013, Kirkcaldy Weather and Quicksilver1989. Seasonal A complete change of

EWP will finish on 137 or perhaps 138 mm, it was 137 mm to 29th and yesterday added only small amounts outside of Cornwall which had 10-20 mm falls. Either way, Feb1991Blizzard has the closest forecas

November confirmed as 6.2 https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

Posted Images

Table of entries for November 2019

 _ number in brackets shows order of entry _ second number is for EWP when different from CET order of entry _

 

13.0 __ 200.0 __ Lettucing Gutted (16) _____________6.8 __ 145.0 __ coldest winter (26) _____

 9.2 __ 120.0 __ syed2878 (24) ___________________6.8 __ ------ __ damianslaw (29) _______

 9.1 __ 198.0 __ I Remember Atlantic 252 (8) ________6.8 ___ ------ __ Mark Bayley (37) ______

 8.8 __ 148.0 __ Summer of 95 (62) _______________ 6.8 __ 125.0 __ EdStone (54, 24.5) _____

 8.2 ___ 55.0 __ SLEETY (4) _____________________6.7 __ 105.0 __ Jeff C (1) _____________

 8.2 ___ 72.0 __ Bobd29 (9) _____________________ 6.7 ___ 42,0 __ DiagonalRedLine (10) ___

 7.9 __ 120.0 __ Reef (49) _______________________6.7 ___ 74.0 __ V for Very Cold (52) _____

 7.7 __ ------ __ Relativistic (21) ___________________6.6 __ 140.0 __ Blast from the Past (31) __

 7.7 __ 128.0 __ stewfox (25) ____________________ 6.6 ___ 90.0 __ weather-history (38) _____

 7.6 __ ------ __ Jonathan F. (14) __________________6.6 ___  96.0 __ daniel* (61) ____________

 7.5 ___ 85.0 __ AppleUK 123 (11) _______________  6.5 ___ 97.0 __ Stargazer (39) __________

 7.5 ___ 90.0 __ freeze (34)______________________6.5 __ 125.0 __ DAVID SNOW (45) _______ 

 7.4 __ 122.0 __ SteveB (7) ______________________6.5 ___ 90.0 __ Norrance (47) ____________________

 7.4 __ ------ __ Man with Beard (41) _______________6.4 __ 112.5 __ Polar Gael (22) ___________________

 7.4 __ 103.7 __ 1989-2018 average ______________ 6.4 ___ 77.0 __ timmytour (30) ____________

 7.3 __ ------ __ snowray (36) _____________________6.4 __ ------ __ Prolonged SnowLover (53)

 7.2 __ 111.0 __ Emmett Garland (2) _______________6.4 ___ 79.0 __ Mulzy (57) ____________

 7.2 ___ 65.0 __ Weather26 (5) ___________________6.3 __ 122.2 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (13) __

 7.2 __ 119.0 __ brmbrmcar (19) __________________ 6.3 __ ------ __ Quicksilver1989 (63) ____

 7.2 __ ------ __ Summer Sun (23) _________________ 6.2 __ 135.0 __ Don (56) ______________

 7.2 ___ 80.0 __ The PIT (43) ____________________ 6.1 ___ 69.0 __ nn2013 (5) _____________

 7.2 ___ ------ __ Froze were the Days (58) __________6.0 ___ ------ __ Duncan McAlister (16) ___

 7.2 ___ 105.0 __ J10 (L1-1) ______________________

 7.1 __ 134.0 __ virtualsphere (18) ________________ 5.8 __ ------ __ Walsall Wood Snow (20) ___ 

 7.1 __ ------ __ Summer Blizzard (35) ______________5.8 __ 155.0 __ jonboy (40) ____________

 7.1 __ ------ __ dancerwithwings (42) ______________ 5.8 ___ 85.0 __ Steve Murr (46) _________

 7.1 __ 128.0 __ Born from the Void (64) ____________5.6 __ 170.4 __ Roger J Smith (27) _____

 7.1 __ 100.3 __ 1981-2010 average _______________ 5.5 ___ 89.0 __ Booferking (51) ________

 7.0 __ 138.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard (28) ______________5.4 ___ ------ __ Kentish Man (32) ________

 7.0 __ 135.0 __ DR(S)NO (33) ____________________5.4 ___ 96.0 __ Godber.1 (55) ___________

 7.0 __ 124.0 __ Stationary Front (48) _______________5.2 __ 110.0 __ Robbie Garrett (4) ________

 7.0 __ 109.0 __ Beet (50) ________________________ 4.9 ___ 71.0 __ Radiating Dendrite (3) _____________ 

 7.0 __ 134.0 __ davehsug (59) ____________________

 6.9 ___ 73.9 __ CheesePuffScott (15, 6.5 ) __________

 6.9 __ 102.5 __ Midlands Ice Age (44) ______________

 6.9 ___ 96.0 __ seaside60 (60) ___________________ 

 6.9 __ 109.5 ___ consensus  _____________________


__ 64 on-time forecasts plus one that is one day late ... consensus (median) __ 6.9

====================================================================================

 

EWP forecasts in order

 

200 _LG ... 198 _IRA252 ... 170.4 _RJS ... 155 _jon ... 148 sum95 ... 145 _cw ... 140 _BFTP ... 138 Feb ...135 _DRS, Don

134 _vir, dave ... 128 _stew, BFTV ... 125 _EdS, DS ... 124 _SF ... 122.2 _KW ... 122_SteveB ... 120 _syed, Reef,

119 _brm ... 112.5 PG ... 111 _EG ... 110 RG ... 109.5 _con ... 109 _Beet  ...  105 _Jeff, J10 ... 103.7 _89-18 ... 102.5 _MIA

100.4 _81-10 ...  97_star ... 96 _Godb, sea, dan* ... 90_fre, w-h, Norr ...  89 _boof ... 85 _App, SMur ...  80 _Pit ...  79 _Mul

 77 _tim ...  74 _V vc  ...  73.9 _CPS ..  72 _Bob .... 71 _ Rad ... 69 _nn  ... 65 _wx26 ...  55 SLE ... 42 _DRL ...

 

__ 49 on-time forecasts, plus one that is one day late, median (consensus) 109.5 mm __ 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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3 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Not if the Met Office’s forecast for the latter part of November comes in true. Reckon we’ll end up with a below average autumn as long as the 1st half goes according to plan. 

Think it will already be too low for me by then and i don't now buy into their forecast, i did do when i made the forecast but i have changed my mind now - below average and blocking of sorts end november but i am going for a ramping up of the vortex and zonal mild December with a change to more of a chance of blocking at some point in Jan with an SSW possible.

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Got that one into the table J10, meanwhile here are the daily normals and extremes with running CET extremes thrown in ... there was some discussion of Nov 1919 earlier, and you will see that the 14th set a record low value for daily mean CET to that point in the month (-1.4). The month also took some turns setting lowest running CET values after that, until colder outcomes were reached from 1786 and ultimately 1782. 

 

 

CET November 1981-2010 averages and 1772-2018 extremes

______________________________________________________

 

Date ____CET mean__CET cum____MAX ___________ MIN ______ CET running mean (extreme values)

 

01 Nov ___ 9.5 ______ 9.5 ______ 13.5 (1894,1982) __1.5 (1934) ___ 13.5 (1894,1982) _1.5 (1934)
02 Nov ___ 9.0 ______ 9.2 ______ 14.3 (1821) ______ 0.5 (1880) ___ 13.8 (1821, 1894)_2,3 (1880)
03 Nov ___ 9.0 ______ 9.2 ______ 15.0 (1996) ______ 1.9 (1820) ___ 13.6 (1894) _____ 2.6 (1880)
04 Nov ___ 8.5 ______ 9.0 ______ 14.2 (1946) _____0.8 (1845&48) _ 13.0 (1894) ______2,6 (1880)
05 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.9 ______ 15.4 (1938) ______ 0.8 (1801) ___ 12.7 (1894) _____ 3.1 (1782, 1880)

06 Nov ___ 8.2 ______ 8.7 ______ 14.3 (2015) ______ 0.6 (1868) ___ 12.2 (1996) _____ 2,7 (1782)
07 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.7 ______ 13.8 (2015) _____ --0.6 (1791) ___ 11.8 (1938) _____ 2.4 (1782)
08 Nov ___ 8.7 ______ 8.7 ______ 13.4 (1852) _____ --1.2 (1812) ___ 11.8 (1938) _____ 2.4 (1782)
09 Nov ___ 8.1 ______ 8.6 ______ 12.5 (1988) _____ --0.5 (1921) ___ 11.8 (1938) _____ 2.3 (1782)
10 Nov ___ 7.9 ______ 8.6 ______ 13.4 (1977) ______ 0.1 (1812) ___ 11.8 (2015) _____ 2.4 (1782)
 
11 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.5 ______ 13.9 (2015) ______ 0.3 (1828) ___ 12.0 (2015) _____ 2.4 (1782)
12 Nov ___ 8.2 ______ 8.5 ______ 13.8 (1938,1947)_ --1.4 (1919) ___ 11.9 (1938,2015) _2.6 (1782)
13 Nov ___ 7.2 ______ 8.4 ______ 14.6 (1938) _____ --1.1 (1862) ___ 12.1 (1938) _____ 2.7 (1782, 1919)
14 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.3 ______ 13.4 (1938) _____ --1.1 (1925) ___ 12.2 (1938) _____ 2.5 (1782, 1919)
15 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.2 ______ 13.5 (1821) _____ --2.1 (1965) ___ 12.0 (1938) _____ 2.3 (1919)

16 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.1 ______ 13.4 (1997) _____ --2.9 (1901) ___ 11.9 (1938) _____ 2.2 (1919)
17 Nov ___ 6.4 ______ 8.0 ______ 13.1 (1997) _____ --2.0 (1841) ___ 11.8 (1938) _____ 2.4 (1919)
18 Nov ___ 6.7 ______ 7.9 ______ 12.2 (1978) _____ --1.6 (1887) ___ 11.6 (1938) _____ 2.6 (1919)
19 Nov ___ 6.4 ______ 7.9 ______ 12.7 (1994) _____ --2.1 (1815) ___ 11,4 (1938) _____ 2.9 (1919)
20 Nov ___ 6.2 ______ 7.8 ______ 12.8 (2009) _____ --1.2 (1829) ___ 11.2 (1938) _____ 2.9 (1786)

21 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.7 ______ 13.7 (1947) _____ --1.4 (1880) ___ 10.8 (1938) _____ 2.9 (1786)
22 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.6 ______ 14.4 (1947) _____ --2.3 (1773) ___ 10.7 (1938) _____ 2.8 (1786)
23 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.5 ______ 13.3 (1947) _____ --4.2 (1858) ___ 10.6 (1994) _____ 2.7 (1782)
24 Nov ___ 5.9 ______ 7.4 ______ 12.7 (1980) _____ --4.6 (1904) ___ 10.6 (1994) _____ 2.6 (1782)
25 Nov ___ 6.3 ______ 7.4 ______ 12.1 (1964) _____ --1.5 (1923) ___ 10.5 (1994) _____ 2.5 (1782)

26 Nov ___ 6.2 ______ 7.3 ______ 12.1 (1983) _____ --1.7 (1904) ___ 10.6 (1994) _____ 2.4 (1782)
27 Nov ___ 6.0 ______ 7.3 ______ 11.3 (1818) _____ --2.6 (1915) ___ 10.6 (1994) _____ 2.3 (1782)
28 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.2 ______ 12.0 (1828) _____ --4.0 (2010) ___ 10.4 (1994) _____ 2.2 (1782)
29 Nov ___ 5.5 ______ 7.2 ______ 12.2 (1818) _____ --2.6 (1801) ___ 10.2 (1994) _____ 2.3 (1782)
30 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.1 ______ 12.4 (2001) _____ --1.7 (1973) ___ 10.1 (1994) _____ 2.3 (1782)

_________________________________________________________________

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10.6c to be the 1st

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 10.6c to be the 1st

Current low this month 10.6c to be the 1st

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10.3c to be the 2nd

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average

1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 10.6c to be the 1st

Current low this month 10.3c to be the 2nd

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9.8c to be the 3rd

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average

0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 10.6c to be the 1st

Current low this month 9.8c to be the 3rd

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

9.8c to be the 3rd

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average

0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 10.6c to be the 1st

Current low this month 9.8c to be the 3rd

Down we come ?

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9.4c to be the 4th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 10.6c to be the 1st

Current low this month 9.4c to be the 4th

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15 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

9.4c to be the 4th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 10.6c to be the 1st

Current low this month 9.4c to be the 4th

How is it still 0.6c above the 81-10 average after a 0.4c drop overnight ?

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Yes, the 81-10 running mean drops 0.2 from 3rd to 4th so the net fall of a decrease of 0.4 would be 0.2 relative to normal, then you have rounding issues also. 

The EWP had 22 mm in the bucket after three days, probably around 30 mm by 12z today when the ten-day GFS started its forecast, reaching 40 mm on average for ten days. Some locally heavier amounts expected in the south and west, also far northern areas. So quite approximate but 70 mm is the rough target for the 15th at the halfway point. The charts for the six remaining days on the GFS look rather wet so could estimate 100 mm by 21st. 

Our consensus forecast was above the recent normals which are just over that amount. But with any reasonable continuation of trends, the month could be headed towards a repeat of the October value of 149 mm. The last time both October and November had over 140 mm was 2002 (144.2, 176.2) although 2000 was wetter with both above 180 mm. More recently 2012 had 127.7 and 135,8 mm. In the rest of the period of record, 1824, 1872, 1875, 1882, 1935 and 1960 had more than 130 mm in both months. 

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A steady but steep drop is about to take place. Based on the ICON data:

4 9.4
5 9.2
6 8.7
7 8.4
8 7.9
9 7.4
10 7.2
 

So certainly below average by the 8th against the 61-90 average. Looking at the recent output I wonder if this month will carry any similarities to March 2013 by months end?

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9.3c to be the 5th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 10.6c to be the 1st

Current low this month 9.4c to be the 4th

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