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Roger J Smith

November 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

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3 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I know, but at least 2005 was followed by a coldish Winter I think, though it wasn't very snowy round here at least. 

Good job Winter conditions aren't determined by the November CET figures.

I was going to say.

Also those Novembers were drier than this November by a bit of a margin. 

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5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I was going to say.

Also those Novembers were drier than this November by a bit of a margin. 

Yes, if you watch Gavs Weather Vids 13th winter update, the analogues for wet November's with a similar CET were actually followed by much colder winters.

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If it's any consolation though, Winters 1776/77 and 1783/84 were pretty cold with Jan and Feb 1777 having a CET of 1.9c and 2.3c respectfully . And Dec 1783 was 2.7c along with Jan and Feb 1784 at -0.6c and 1.4c respectfully. 

Dec 1927 was cold at 2.1c (though Jan and Feb 1928 weren't). And Jan 1945 was a very cold 0.4c. 

 

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Anyway, nice to see another month below the 61-90 average and was colder than December 2018 and February 2019.

Edited by Don

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Yeah, hats off to @Quicksilver1989, well played sir!

Quite chuffed with myself getting in top 10 for the season!

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If you had some trouble opening the CET scoring file, I have posted a simplified title link to it at the bottom of this post.

This is the combined rankings of CET and EWP for all who posted 11 or 12 forecasts in either venue. The CET rankings are straight from J10's scoring file, the EWP rankings are very slightly subject to alteration when November is confirmed.  ... Only those who played both contests are shown in this table, but CET-only (or CET-mainly) forecasters are identified over to the right of the table in a similar position. Some of those had a small number of EWP forecasts and are ranked in that contest but if they played fewer than half their CET entries I don't show those results here. They are tagged with an asterisk though. In the case of nn2013 who played eleven CET and seven EWP, if they had entered the other four and scored just 4/10, EWP rank would have been 30th moving them up a couple of spots, but if I just listed them without EWP rank then they would show up in roughly the same position in this table anyway. The same applies to Leo97t (ten CET, five EWP).

In order to qualify for a CET ranking it is necessary to enter at least 10 of the 12 contests. The EWP rankings are not separated by numbers of entries although it is tough to finish much higher than 40th with fewer than ten entries. 

 

Ties are broken by highest rank in either contest (e.g., 3rd and 4th below).

_ ranks now confirmed for EWP as of 5th December

 

__ BEST COMBINED CET and EWP FORECASTS 2018-19 COMPETITION YEAR __

 

Rank __ FORECASTER ___ CET rank ___ EWP rank ___ Avg ___ CET-only or CET-mainly in similar ranks

_01 ___ Don _____________ 4 __________ 3 __________3.5 ___ Quicksilver (1)

_02 ___ EdStone _________ 5 ___________ 6 _________ 5.5

_03 ___ Born from the Void _ 11 __________ 1 __________6.0

_04 ___ Stationary Front ____2 __________10 __________6.0

_05 ___ weather-history ____ 6 __________ 7 __________ 6.5 ___ Summer Blizzard*(8) 

_06 ___ DR(S)NO ________ 16 __________ 5 _________10.5 ___

_07 ___ Feb1991Blizzard ___10 _________ 11 _________10.5 ___ Damianslaw (9)

_08 ___ Reef ____________ 22 __________ 2 _________12.0 ___

_09 ___ Stargazer ________ 12 _________ 12 _________12.0 ___

_10 ___ Mulzy ____________ 7 _________ 18 _________12.5 ___

_11 ___ seaside60_______ T18 _________ 14 _________ 16.0 ___

_12 ___ The PIT __________ 3 _________ T30 ________ 16.5 ___

_13 ___ Midlands Ice Age __ 17 _________ 17_________17.0 ___

_14 ___ J10 _____________36 __________ 4 _________ 20.0 ___

_15 ___ Norrance ________ 15 _________ 25 _________ 20.0 ___

_16 ___ DiagonalRedLine __ 13 _________T30 ________ 21.5 ___

_17 ___ Blast from the Past_ 38 __________ 8_________ 23.0 ___

_18 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather _T27__________19 ________ 23.0 ___

_19 ___ CheesepuffScott ___23 _________ 23_________ 23.0 ___

_20 ___ DAVID SNOW _____21 _________ 26_________ 23.5 ___

_21 ___ Daniel* __________ 33 _________ 15 _________24.0 ___ 

_22 ___ JeffC ____________32 _________ 16 _________24.0 ___

_23 ___ Godber.1 ________T40 __________9 _________ 24.5 ___

_24 ___ Roger J Smith _____20 _________ 29 _________ 24.5 ___ Jonathan F. (24)

_25 ___ virtualsphere ______37 _________ 13 _________ 25.0 ___ Duncan McAlister (25)

_26 ___ Timmytour ________14 _________ 36 _________ 25.0 ___ Summer Sun (26)

_27 ___ jonboy ___________34 _________ 21 _________ 27.5 ___ Mark Bayley (T27)

_28 ___ nn2013 _________ T18 _________ 38 _________ 28.0 __ (note -- entered 11 CET, 7 EWP)

_29 ___ Weather26 _______ 30 _________T33 _________ 31.5 ___ Man with Beard (29)

_30 ___ brmbrncar _______ T40 _________ 24 _________ 32.0 ___ ^^ sundog (see note below)

_31 ___ SteveB ___________46 _________ 22 _________ 34.0 ___ dancerwithwings (31)

_32 ___ davehsug _________42 _________ 27 _________ 34.5 ___

_33 ___ syed2878 _________50 _________ 20 _________ 35.0 ___

_34 ___ bobd29 ___________44 _________ 28 _________ 36.0 ___ Walsall Wood Snow (35)

_35 ___ I Remember Atl252 _ 43 _________ 35 _________ 39.0 ___ 

_36 ___ Polar Gael ________ 47 _________T33 _________40.0 ___

_37 ___ Leo97t ___________ 39 _________ 48 _________ 43.5 __ (note -- entered 10 CET, 5 EWP)

_38 ___ stewfox ___________51 _________ 37 _________ 44.0 ___ snowray (45)

_39 ___ Lettucing Gutted ____52 _________ 60 _________ 56.0 ___ prolongedSnowLover (48) 

_40a __ Let It Snow! ________40** _______ 32 _________ 36.0** __

_40b___ Emmett Garland ____37** _______ 42 _________ 39,5** __ Kentish Man (49)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

** Emmett Garland played only eight of each (CET, EWP) and on points would have been 37th in CET if included in the main scoring table. He was 42nd in EWP. On a pro-rated basis these results are about the equivalent of 20th place overall in both contests. 

** Let it Snow! played nine CET and eight EWP. On points in CET the finish would have been 40th and in the EWP it was 32nd. Pro-rated basis, about 30th overall.

^^ Sundog who only played CET  had enough points in nine outings to finish 26th in the main scoring table. 

For any other part time players, consult the two scoring files and you can estimate your performance level by pro-rating the total scores to fit (e.g., you played 6/12, double the score you had and see where that lands in the tables).  Coldest winter has been scoring at about the same pace as EWP leader BFTV since starting up with the last four entries. They had those same months in CET plus three earlier ones without equivalent EWP. The CET scoring would equate to about middle of the table. If you do this pro-rating, in the CET table make sure you are in the section for total points scoring mid-way through and not the combined scoring as that will give you a false positive. 

=========================

Here's that link to the CET file in case you had any difficulty opening it. The EWP file will be adjusted tomorrow and reposted in a report on final standings there. It can be seen a few posts back in its current status. 

 

 

 

 

 

Nov19CET.xlsx

Edited by Roger J Smith

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10 hours ago, Don said:

Yes, if you watch Gavs Weather Vids 13th winter update, the analogues for wet November's with a similar CET were actually followed by much colder winters.

The closest analogy in recent times, I would go with is November 2012, infact Autumn 2012. A much wetter than average and overall coolish season. 

Edited by Weather-history

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Soooooo close. Congratulations to Don 🙂

Happy I won autumn overall, most of these guesses have been very safe. This is done without even looking at the models in detail.

I wouldnt worry about the November average = rubbish winter. This year is different. 

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I tell you what i have noticed on these competitions, that climatologists tend to never be far away from the top of the league, their strategy seems to work more even than qualified meteorologists. have very slightly adapted my strategy over the last 6 months and it worked, too late to do anything great in that competition, generally though i still in the main go with what is in front of me on the screen, not what has happened before, just a slight tweak.

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7 hours ago, Weather-history said:

The closest analogy in recent times, I would go with is November 2012, infact Autumn 2012. A much wetter than average and overall coolish season. 

Bank.

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The EWP tracker blew off the rain in Cornwall on 30th and remained stuck on 137 mm. I won't bother to update my scoring file (set to 138) until the final number is posted, as it won't be useful work to do twice. The standings are not likely to change on any value between 136 and 140 mm basically. Will publish the full details on contest year scoring on the 5th when that final number is made known. 

Meanwhile, on to the business of tracking our three robotic contestants (they aren't half bad actually) ... 

 

 

REPORT ON CONSENSUS and NORMALS SCORING for NOVEMBER 2019 and the contest year wrap-up

 

Dec 2018 _____________________________ Jan 2019 _______________________ Feb 2019 __________

____FORECAST _ error __ rank __ points ____ FCST __ error__ rank _ points _____ FCST __ error __ rank __ points

Consensus_ 5.0 __ -1.9 _ 32 to 32 _ 52.3 _____3.5 ___ -0.5 __16 to 18 _ 75.7 to 78.6 _ 4.0 __ -2.7 _ 33 to 37 _ 48.3 to 54.1

1989-2018*_4.9 __ -2.0 _ 33 to 33 _ 50.8 _____4.7 ___ +0.7 __21 to 23 _ 68.6 to 71.4 _ 4.9 __ -1.8 _ 14 to 14 _ 81.3

1981-2010__4.6 _ -2.3 _42 to 44 _ 33.8 to 36.9 _4.4 __ +0.4 __14 to 15 _ 80.0 to 81.4 _ 4.4 __ -2.3 _ 17 to 19 _ 74.2 to 77.0

 

March 2019 _____________________________ April 2019 ______________________ May 2019

____FORECAST _ error __ rank __ points _____FCST_error _ rank __ points _______ FCST _ error _ rank __ points

 consensus _ 6.9 _ --0.9 _ 29 to 33 _ 48.4 to 54.8 _8.4 _ --0.7 _ 24 to 28 _ 55.9 to 62.3 _ 12.3 _ +1.2 _ 28 to 31 _ 50.0-55.0

1989-2018 _ 6.8 __ --1.0 _ 34 to 35 _ 46.2 to 47.8 _8.8 _ --0.3 _ 9 to 13 _ 80.3 to 86.9 __ 12.0 _ +0.9 _ 17 to 20 _ 68.3 to 73.3

1981-2010 _ 6.6 __ --1.2 _ 39 to 39 _ 39.7 ______8.5 _ --0.6 _ 20 to 23 _ 63.9 to 68.6 __ 11.7 _ +0.6 _ 11 to 11 _ 83.3

 

June 2019 __________________________________ July 2019 ______________________ August 2019

____FORECAST __ error __ rank __ points _______ FCST _ error _ rank _ points ________ FCST _ error _ rank _ points

consensus _ 15.0 _ +0.8 _ 27 to 31 _ 48.1 to 55.0 __ 17.0 _ -0.5 _ 19-24 __ 62.9 to 71.0 ____17.0 _ --0.1 __ 3 to 13 __ 81.0 to 96.8

1989-2018 _ 14.6 _ +0.4 _ 11 to 15 _ 75.8 to 82.7 __ 16.9 _ -0.6 _ 25-30 __ 53.2 to 61.3 ____16.5 _ --0.6 __38 to 43 __ 33.6 to 41.5

1981-2010 _ 14.5 _ +0.3 __ 6 to 10 _ 84.4 to 91.3 __ 16.7 _ -0.8 _ 34-39 __ 38.7 to 46.8 ____16.4 _ --0.7 __44 to 44 __ 32.0 to 32.0

____________________________________________________________________________________________

 

September 2019 _____________________________ October 2019 _____________________ November 2019

____FORECAST __ error __ rank __ points _______ FCST _ error _ rank ___ points _______ FCST _ error _ rank ___ points

consensus ________ 0.0 _ 01 to 01_ 100.0 ________ 10.9 _ +0.9 _ 29 to 34 _ 45.0 to 53.3 __ 6.9 ___ +0.7 __ 27 to 30 _ 55.1 to 59.8

1989-2018 ________-0.1 _ 02 to 11 _ 84.6 to 98.5 ___11.0 _ +1.0 _ 35 to 36 _ 41.7 to 43.3 __ 7.4 ___ +1.2 __ 51 to 52 _ 21.1 to 22.7

1981-2010 ________-0.3 _ 20 to 25 _ 63.0 to 70.7 ___10.7 _ +0.7 _ 24 to 26 _ 58.3 to 61.7 __ 7.1 ___ +0.9 __ 38 to 41 _ 38.1 to 42.8

===========================================================================================

__________ Average (12 months) __________

___________ abs err __ rank __ points

consensus ___0.93 __ 23 to 26 _ 59.8 to 66.0

1989-2018*___ 0.88 __ 23 to 27 _ 60.3 to 62.5

1981-2010 ___ 0.93 __ 27 to 29 _ 56.8 to 60.7

*note played Dec 2018 as 1988-2017.

________________________________________________________________________________________

Analysis of these scores ...

Our consensus caught up to the two normals in November and all three scores are basically in the same ball-park. They are roughly equivalent to the range of 11th to 15th in the CET scoring table. The range of ranks and points reflect the fact that more than one forecaster usually has the same error values as these three robotic forecasters. But in terms of the average error of their forecasts, 0.93 was the average of our 22nd place forecaster (average error is not quite in the same order as total points though, the spread is rather wobbly down the table and 0.88 is the average of our 12th place forecaster. In fact one or two of the top ten had higher average errors than these three robots, while our 31st place finisher was barely above the highest of these errors. So it depends in part on which months you beat these robots and which months you fall short. 

The best robotic result would be for a forecast that was 0.3 above the recent 30-year normal. That would have averaged an error of 0.87 deg. If you went to 0.6 above the recent normal you would start increasing your average error (there it would be back to 0.92). Anywhere from 0.2 to 0.4 above the recent normal would be about the same as the ideal 0.3. 

Our consensus did better than either robotic normal in several months but except for August and November, the differentials were small to insignificant. We did statistically worse as a group in February, May and June. The first of those months proved milder than we expected and May/June proved to be cooler than recent normals while we mostly went warmer than them. In January we went colder than the recent normals by about twice the amount that was justified by the outcome, so the consensus and normal scores there were similar although opposite in sign. 

The bias can be assessed by the actual average as opposed to the absolute average calculated above. The consensus bias was -0.31, meaning that on average, our forecasts were 0.3 C lower than outcomes. The bias for 1981-2010 was -0.55 meaning that this contest year has averaged 0.55 above the 1981-2010 normals. The bias for 1989-2018 was -0.18 deg indicating that the contest year was only 0.18 C warmer than the 1989-2018 averages. This will obviously demonstrate that forecasts about 0.2 to 0.3 above those "normals" will eliminate bias altogether. 

I can say on a preliminary basis that consensus did better than the recent normals in the EWP. We seem to have a bit more skill there, and the current ranking of consensus is 6th on points, while the two normals are tied for 20th, still better than at least half the regular field, but rather close to random in terms of skill shown. Since recent normals are not all trending in the same direction recently, there is no "sweet spot" relative to recent normals and you're better off to hug consensus which does show considerable skill, rarely finishing much lower than halfway down the pack. Our overall bias in EWP forecasts seems to be to go a bit lower than the actual amounts. But a few players (as with CET) have large biases on the upside, whether they truly believe in them or not, and this may disguise a larger tendency to go too low since we have a handful going way too high on a regular basis. It turns out I am a bit of an offender in that regard (for EWP, not CET), although I am actually trying to hit the numbers. 

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On 02/12/2019 at 11:40, feb1991blizzard said:

I tell you what i have noticed on these competitions, that climatologists tend to never be far away from the top of the league, their strategy seems to work more even than qualified meteorologists. have very slightly adapted my strategy over the last 6 months and it worked, too late to do anything great in that competition, generally though i still in the main go with what is in front of me on the screen, not what has happened before, just a slight tweak.

I guess I could class myself as both a meteorologist and a climatologist 😀, I think at the end of the day though there was a lot of good luck. Usually months outside the extended winter (April to October) will be slightly below average at best during the coolest of months relative to the average, so if the output hints at something cooler outside the winter months I put a near average guess in.

Different ball game in the winter though when you start bringing in continental easterlies and long fetch northerlies, you can still get CETs much below average so these months have the biggest risk when it comes to predicting them.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I guess I could class myself as both a meteorologist and a climatologist 😀, I think at the end of the day though there was a lot of good luck. Usually months outside winter will be slightly below average at best the vast majority of the time, so if the output hints at something cooler outside the winter months I put a near average guess in.

Different ball game in the winter though when you start bringing in continental easterlies and long fetch northerlies, you can still get CETs much below average so these months have the biggest risk when it comes to predicting them.

My strategy now is in seasonal temperature transitionary months if models are showing average to mid month, then work out how much the last 2 weeks being about 1-2 degrees below or above would then alter the whole month by and go from there, can't remember which but a couple of my very near misses were using that strategy, usual caveats apply like SSW's, like for instance you wouldn't use that strategy for feb 18 as SSW was quite likely then.

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About that second half of the months (beyond the last gasp of the guidance for even the latest forecasters to make a punt) ...

In the contest year 2018-19, the mean daily CET for the various days of the month, compared to 1772-2019 average values (from my research file). I have averaged each five days to simplify the presentation. 

Interval ___ Mean daily CET ___ Average of all data

01-05 _____ 9.8 _____________ 9.4

06-10 _____10.0 _____________9.4 

11-15 _____ 9.6 ______________9.4

16-20 _____10.4 _____________ 9.3

21-25 _____11.9 _____________ 9.4

22-26 _____12.1 _____________ 9.4 (max dep)

26-31 _____ 10.7 _____________9.5

=====================================

As you can see, the departures from normal (even this long-term normal cooler than 1981-2010 by 0.8 C) were small until after the 15th. They rose to a peak of 2.7 above that normal (would be close to 2 C above recent normal) by 22nd to 26th of the twelve months. That's why I added the one extra line to the table, to show the maximum departure. So as luck would have it, most months (January probably an exception) warmed significantly relative to normal values after the guidance period. The graphs converge towards the end because February drops out and then on the last day, April, June, September and November drop out. That suggests that the effect was a bit more pronounced in February and the 30-day months.

The coldest relative to long-term normal was the 4th which ran 9.0 vs the rather static long-term 9.4 (when you average so many months the numbers stay fairly flat, always between 9.32 and 9.44, except that they rise slightly on 29th and 30th as February is the only missing month from those normals, which are 9.49 and 9.52.

You'll recall that the summer months all had heat wave conditions after the 25th for at least a day or two. 

People who noticed this second half warmer trend probably did a bit better than most in the CET contest. 

The attached graph shows the daily averages, which peak at 12.7 on the 25th and 12.2 on the 26th (22nd-26th is the warmest five-day average).

 

GRAPH: MEAN DAILY C.E.T. Contest Year 2018-19 by DAYS OF MONTH (blue) vs 1772-2019 AVERAGES (for existing dates)*

* removes data that would be 29-31 Feb, 31 Apr, 31 Jun, 31 Sep 31 Nov.

The removal of that data explains the bump upwards of the average (red) on 29th-30th as only February is excluded from that data.

__ Note: CET values are 10x actual, e.g. 120 = 12.0 C

image.thumb.png.e199d03f615b5298e63e72b55267b621.png

Edited by Roger J Smith

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The November EWP has been posted now at 138.8 mm. That won't change much in the excel scoring file, but I need to check some numbers in the "ultimate scoring" section as they also updated (just September, October is unchanged so far) as is the custom at Hadley EWP. (added later _ Nov scores changed by 0.2 up for Lettucing Gutted and I Remember Atlantic 252, down for Mulzy and timmytour, as the slightly revised EWP changed their ranks and scores, after BFTP only five others had forecast above the outcome and the other three did not change ranks or scoring as a result). 

Can also confirm that coldest winter has won the autumn segment of the contest with Don, SteveB, DR(S)NO and virtualsphere in the next four positions. Eventual contest 1-2 finishers Born From the Void and Reef were sixth and seventh in autumn. Stationary Front, jonboy and syed2878 round out the top ten for autumn.

So I will post some summaries of annual scoring. This will likely confirm also the table I posted a few days ago of "best combined forecast" results since all ranks are going to remain the same after today's minor adjustments. The closest forecast remains the 138.0 mm of Feb1991Blizzard now followed a bit more closely by second place Blast From The Past (140 mm). 

Back in a while with the final version of scoring for the contest year. 

Edited by Roger J Smith

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Final EWP contest results -- Contest Year 2018-19

This is the final "top 25" of our contest, with points totals and average errors with rankings shown for those also (the correlation while high is not absolute between points and errors, depends to some extent on which months you had larger errors). The ranking for average error was against those who entered at least 7/12 contests, some who entered fewer had smaller average errors for the months they played. 

 

Rank __ Forecaster _______ Points _____ Avg error __ Rank 

_ 01 ___ Born from the Void __ 91.4 _____ 15.8 ______ 1

_ 02 ___ Reef _____________ 83.8 _____ 18.8 ______ 2

_ 03 ___ Don ______________77.4 _____ 22.3 ______ 4

_ 04 ___ J10 ______________ 77.2 _____ 24.3 ______ 8

_ 05 ___ Dr(S)No ___________76.6 _____ 22.8 ______ 6

_ 06 ___ EdStone __________ 72.2 _____ 24.1 ______ 7

_ 07 ___ weather-history _____ 71.7 _____ 26.9 _____ 15

_ 08 ___ Blast from the Past __ 71.0 _____ 29.0 _____ 22

_ 09 ___ Godber.1 __________ 68.9 _____ 20.1 ______3**

_ 10 ___ Stationary Front _____68.3 _____ 25.3 _____10

_ 11 ___ Feb1991Blizzard ____ 68.0 _____ 25.0 _____ 9

_ 12 ___ Stargazer __________67.9 _____ 27.2 _____17

_ 13 ___ Virtualsphere _______ 67.3 _____ 22.6 _____ 5**

_ 14 ___ seaside60 __________66.5 _____ 26,3 _____13

_ 15 ___ daniel* ____________ 65.1 _____ 25.8 _____ 12

_ 16 ___ Jeff C _____________ 64.9 _____ 28.5 _____ 20

_ 17 ___ Midlands Ice Age ____ 64.7 _____ 27.6 _____ 19

_ 18 ___ Mulzy _____________ 64.5 _____ 28.6 _____ 21

_ 19 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather ___ 64.3 _____ 27.1 _____ 16

_ 20 ___ syed2878 __________ 62.4 _____ 31.7 _____ 27

_ 21 ___ jonboy _____________61,4 _____ 29.6 _____ 23**

_ 22 ___ Steve B ____________59.9 _____ 31.5 _____ 26

_ 23 ___ CheesepuffScott _____58.9 _____ 31.7 _____ 28

_ 24 ___ brmbrmcar _________ 57.7 _____ 31.0 _____ 24

_ 25 ___ Norrance ___________57.4 _____ 31.3 _____ 25

_ 26 ___ DAVID SNOW _______56.1 _____ 25,5 _____11**

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

** Of the top twenty-six, all but Godber1, virtualsphere, jonboy and DAVID SNOW played 12 months; those four played 11 times. 

... ... this is why they generally ranked higher in the average error than points gained. 

(note Jonboy had a forecast in August that was too late to count, with that added his total would be close to 70 for about 8th place)

(14th best average error went to Let it Snow who played only 8/12 so finishing in 32nd for total points).

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The four seasonal winners were:

WINTER _ Blast from the Past

SPRING _ DiagonalRedLine

SUMMER _ J10

AUTUMN _ coldest winter

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The most points gained from 2017-18 contest year to 2018-19 for any forecaster who entered 11/12 or 12/12 in both years was

38.7 for EdStone who went from 44th place in our first contest year (11/12 forecasts) to 6th this year. 

Our contest winner Born from the Void picked up 30.2 points and moved up from 15th to 1st. 

(some part-timers from year one also moved up a lot of points and ranks but I only looked at regular entrants in both years)

The excel file now contains a comparison of year one and year two total points, in columns DO, DP and DQ. Most people who were regulars both times

seem to have finished remarkably close to where they finished in year one. The most points earned in total over two years goes to Don who was second and then third

in the two contest years. Close behind was J10 who has finished third and fourth in the first two contest years. 

==============================================================

One more stat, from the rankings table ... the 12-month forecaster who had the best "worst ranked forecast" was once again Born from the Void whose ranks never dropped lower than 21st place. His average rank was 12th, the next highest among regular entrants was 15th for Reef. (Coldest winter who only entered the last four contests finished with three high-ranked efforts, 5th, 6th and 7th in the autumn). 

Congrats to all of our forecasters and good luck going forward. 

 

FULL SCORING DETAILS IN THE ATTACHED FILE

EWP20182019NOV.xlsx

Edited by Roger J Smith

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