November 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield now at 5.4°C that's -3.1° C. Rainfall in a new record is at 172.6 mm 217.4% of the monthly average.

[Weather-history]

20 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

 

And remarkably still not at all what i would consider stormy. 

 

 I am struggling to recall a really windy day this autumn around here, Accuweather's autumn forecast, wind wise, for the British Isles has been a total bust.

[Summer Sun]

6.7c to the 16th

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average

1.3c below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 10.6c to the 1st

Current low this month 6.6c to the 15th

[DAVID SNOW]

Long way to go and subject to change of course (lol) but by my reasoning something close to 6.5 wont be far out.

[seaside 60]

22 hours ago, Weather-history said:

 I am struggling to recall a really windy day this autumn around here, Accuweather's autumn forecast, wind wise, for the British Isles has been a total bust.

Lets face it all the Autumn forecasts have been a bust overall.

[Summer Sun]

6.6c to the 17th

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average

1.4c below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 10.6c to the 1st

Current low this month 6.6c to the 15th & 17th

[Methuselah]

18 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Long way to go and subject to change of course (lol) but by my reasoning something close to 6.5 wont be far out.

That would suit me fine, Dave...as I'd pip Summer Blizzard to the final Champions League spot. Unless of course A. N. Other plays a blinder!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 5.5C -2.9C below average. Rainfall 188.2mm 237% of the monthly average

[Summer Sun]

6.5c to the 18th

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average

1.4c below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 10.6c to the 1st

Current low this month 6.5c to the 18th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 5.4C -2.9C below normal. Rainfall for once unchanged.

Edited November 19, 2019 by The PIT

[Roger J Smith]

EWP reported at 97 mm to 17th and likely through the 18th as well. The GFS ten-day maps have been shifting back and forth with a blob of heavier rain sometimes well into the UK and other times (like this latest run) off to the west closer to southeast Ireland. So it appears somewhat uncertain how much more the EWP will get, could be anywhere from 30 to 60 mm by the looks of the guidance. A finish between 130 and 160 seems most likely then. 

My guess for the CET is that the last ten days will average 8.0 and that will bump up the current values to near 7.0 at the finish, but with a downward adjustment we may finish not that far from the current provisionals, high 6 zone perhaps. 

[Summer Sun]

6.3c to the 19th

0.8c below the 61 to 90 average

1.6c below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 10.6c to the 1st

Current low this month 6.3c to the 19th

[snowray]

Was expecting a 0.3c drop yesterday, could this be the low point for the month then?

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 5.3C -2.9C below normal, Rainfall unchanged

[damianslaw]

Not based on evidence or recordings to back it up, but my feeling is for quite a marked downward adjustment month's end, 0.4 degrees even. Not sure how the CET may pan out for the rest of the month, a bit of a rise over the next few days may take us very close to 7 degrees, with a cool down at months end, with the downward correction a finish in the 6.3-6.6 degree range looks a good bet. A very average month.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Could be bang on this month!

[snowray]

Should see another small tick down, but after today the CET looks like rising somewhat by the end of the month, I doubt that we would get back up to 7 though. 

[Summer Sun]

6.3c to the 20th

0.9c below the 61 to 90 average

1.5c below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 10.6c to the 1st

Current low this month 6.3c to the 19th & 20th

[Timmytour]

Well  this November won't see a CET above 9C that's for sure!

In the last four centuries, including this one, we've seen 8 occasions on which the monthly mean CET for November exceeded 9C, two in each century. 

But anyone imagining that this century, with not 20 years of it gone, will undoubtedly see many more, should perhaps caution their certainty with a look at the 19th century, whose two Novembers occurred in 1817 and 1818. Consecutive years with an aggregate CET of half a degree more than any other consecutive pairing, but obviously not a portent of what Novembers were to come in the rest of that century! As an interesting aside, the two Novembers preceding these two had the coldest consecutive pairing, bar the Novembers of 1739 and 1740 

in fact the only "second half of the century" November to register such warmth came in 1994, when the 20th Century bagged its second month with just six years to spare!  The gap between the two Novembers in the 20th century is the biggest standing at 56 years. In contract the biggest gap of the others is the 17th century at just 13, while this century saw a wait of only 4 years  and of course just 1 for the 18th century.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 5.1C -3.0C below normal, Rainfall unchanged at 188.2mm 237% of the monthly average.

All eyes now on the 200mm mark as we head towards another wet spells.

[damianslaw]

13 hours ago, snowray said:

Should see another small tick down, but after today the CET looks like rising somewhat by the end of the month, I doubt that we would get back up to 7 though. 

Yes, only likely to see a small rise in the days ahead and then quite probably a fall towards months end if current model output verifies. A good chance with downward corrections we will end up below the 61-90 mean.

[Summer Sun]

6.2c to the 21st

0.9c below the 61 to 90 average

1.5c below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 10.6c to the 1st

Current low this month 6.2c to the 21st

[snowray]

13 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Yes, only likely to see a small rise in the days ahead and then quite probably a fall towards months end if current model output verifies. A good chance with downward corrections we will end up below the 61-90 mean.

I would not be surprised to see a fairly big downward correction at the end of the month, I had expected us to be a degree or two lower at this point, anyway I expect 6.2c almost certainly to be the low point. 

Temps at 12 noon today are in the 7c-10c range in the CET zone, with 8c widely, and the next few days are looking even milder, as  the colder air shifts northward, no chance of any frosts around in the next week or so with night temps looking to stay on the high side too. So with 9 days of the month to go a small rise from here now looks likely, before corrections of course.

Edited November 22, 2019 by snowray

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 5C -2.9C below normal. Rainfall 194.5mm 245% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP climbing rather slowly in recent days has probably reached 100 mm with 96 indicated to 20th. The 8.5 day projection on the GFS (to end of 30th) suggests a further 50 mm with heavier amounts over most of the south and west. The finishing point still looks to be fairly close to 150 mm then.